Question for JB on Jacobson's losing streak

[covelj70]

JB, someone posted on twitter yesterday that Jacobson is now on an 18 race losing streak tied back to shortly after they started the surveilance.

I didn\'t have time to go back and verify the 18 losses so it could be off but it was an interesting comment.

I\'m curious, without asking you to post the sheets for his last 18 runners, could you give us some feel for whether his horses aren\'t running their numbers for the last few weeks?

Sometimes these cold streaks right after these hot streaks are just the simple fact that a bunch of horses ran through a condition and are forced to run their next out vs. tougher company which is why I was looking to get a qualatative view from you on if they were still running their figures post the policies they put in place.

thanks

[makomaniac]

The public has figured it out before the racing authorities, Rudy and Jacobsen are dead in every pool. The days of these guys opening as even money from a 4 or 5-1 morning line are over.Even Pletcher is not getting bet like he did in Fla but I am sure it will be a different story at Saratoga for him.

[TGJB]

I haven\'t really been paying close attention recently but those two guys-- and other move-up guys-- get bet when they are live and don\'t when they are not. Which is part of the problem-- we are dealing in a mraket where some people are trading on inside information.

The problem of course is that even if the hypothesis is right, they\'re not going to do surveillance forever.

[plasticman]

Much Stronger (Race 2 today at Belmont) had Beyers of 89 and 88 as \'first time Jacobson\' after running 32, 51, 32, 62, 65 and 69. Those high Beyers were accomplished in April at Aqu. Today, he was 2-1 ML, was ice cold on the board and ran like it finishing up the track.

This horse beat Tenango on April 4th and Tenango came back the other day and ran ok in a stakes race, how Tenango (an uncoupled Jacobson) ever lost a horse race to Much Stronger (the longer priced Jacobson) is anyone\'s guess.

[Fairmount1]

Great post covello and great question!  

You wrote--\"Sometimes these cold streaks right after these hot streaks are just the simple fact that a bunch of horses ran through a condition and are forced to run their next out vs. tougher company.\"

I\'ve always believed this to be a nonsense PR statement that was invented by some trainer many, many years ago.  Can a shrewd trainer have multiple horses ready to fire good shots at the start of a meet?  Absolutely.  Can a trainer claim horse after horse and improve their form beyond \"dramatically\" and then later when he cools down after surveillance claim his horses ran out of conditions?  No way.  Now, I understand the trainer in question probably hasn\'t stated that and also that you were providing their best argument as part of posing your question.  But absolutely this is nonsense in this particular case.  

Hot streaks from competent, shrewd trainers are very different than move-ups.  And if you are to succeed in this game at the windows I believe you better recognize exactly which kind of trainer you are contemplating a bet on or against.

[Boscar Obarra]

I think the demise of Mr J has been exaggerated. Not so much for the other guy.

 Good news for the horse he just beat. He took him.

[Boscar Obarra]

just call me the master of understatment

[Boscar Obarra]

.

[magicnight]

This last one really reveals your mastery of understatement, Boscar.

[Fairmount1]

Do we know if his horses are still under surveillance?  Or was that lifted?

[TGJB]

Why should the public be able to know about minor stuff like that?

[Boscar Obarra]

overdose

[TGJB]

Nah, hay and oats.