Twenty Year Itch

[richiebee]

Emboldened by Frank D\'s soggy weather report, which is in accordance with three or
four other forecasts which I have less faith in (Weather Channel, National Weather
Service, etc), I am setting the over/under for Belmont Stakes Day attendance at
48,934, betting the \"under\" and Stubhubbing a ticket to New York\'s biggest day of
racing.

My youthful wanderings through the midwest ended in 1987, and I came to rest in
Staten Italy, future home of the Organized Crime Museum and Theme Park. Between
1987 and 1998, single and carefree, I attended the downstate NYRA races on an
almost daily basis, yet during that time, and since, attended only one Belmont
Stakes-- the historic and bittersweet 1993 edition, won by Centennial Farms
Colonial Affair, trained by Flint \"Scotty\" Schulhofer. I still have the seating
pass in the archives, but seem to have misplaced the program.

The 1993 Belmont was what Joe Durso, writing for the Times, called
\"bittersweet\". The bitter part was the catastrophic breakdown of 5/2 favorite
Prairie Bayou, coming off a second in the Derby and a win in the Preakness. PB was
in the midst of a tremendous 3YO campaign, winning two winter stakes at AQ, the
Jim Beam and the Blue Grass, back when those races were still contested on
terra firma.

Sad to read the commentary on the breakdown, because it seems as if the very wet
conditions prevented jockey Mike Smith from being able to pull PB up; the colt
jogged for several hundred yards after Smith fell off. Prairie Bayou was humanely
destroyed and was awarded the Eclipse Award for 3YOs posthumously.

Sweet were classic wins for well liked trainer Scotty Schulhofer and Julie Krone,
who became the first and still only female rider to win a Triple Crown race; at
the time female riders were 0/7 in Triple Crown races, Krone having ridden three
of those losing mounts. When asked after the race to reflect on her achievement as
a woman, Krone replied \"I don\'t think the question has to be genderized.\"

Also sweet was Colonial Affair avenging his sire Pleasant Colony\'s loss in the
Belmont after taking the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 1981.

The chart shows that Colonial Affair paid 29.80 to win, followed across the wire
by Kissin Kris (13/1), Wild Gale (51/1) and Silver of Silver (33/1). The trifecta
paid $18,677 for those keeping score at home.

Strangely, Sea Hero and the Rokeby Stable benefited from the tragic breakdown of
Prairie Bayou. In 1993, Chrysler sponsored a Triple Crown Bonus ($1,000,000) based
on overall performance in the Triple Crown series. Sea Hero won the bonus on the
basis of his Derby win, Preakness 5th placing, and well beaten seventh as second
favorite in the Belmont.

What does this all mean? Well mostly that my employer really doesn\'t have much
work for me tonight. I hope they all make it home safely (in all Saturday races)
and enjoy a hot bath and a hot mash afterwards. I do not think there is much
chance of R Napravnik duplicating Julie Krone\'s milestone achievement, because I
agree with Jimbo here, that if you watched Unlimited Budget hanging badly in the
Oaks it is hard to imagine her coming back and winning the Belmont. Comparisons to
Rags to Riches fall apart when one remembers that RTR was by a Belmont winner out
of a mare who had produced the previous years Belmont winner.

If UB was not owned by Mike Repole she would be prepping for the big Saratoga
filly stakes and the Belmont would not even be considered. I understand not how
she can be supported here, TG #s and weight allowance notwithstanding.