Pim Special - Preakness will pays

[Boscar Obarra]

5.80 with Orb.

Then jumps to 45 for the next lowest. Quite a gap.

[Larchmont]

Ever seen the Pimlico surface this slow?

[ROBERT49]

any chance you would be kind enough to post all the payoffs? thx.

[headstr8ner]

$2 ticket in the Pimlico Special-Preakness double.
 Last Gunfighter (7) with:
1.   Orb  $5.80
2.   Goldencents $49.40
3.   Titletown Five $344.40
4.   Departing $55.20
5.   Mylute $75.00
6.   Oxbow $100.80
7.   Will Take Charge $60.20
8.   Govenor Charlie $60.20
9.   Itsmyluckyday $45.40

[phil23]

If they bet it like this in the exacta/tri pool, we\'re golden. Big if though.

[Boscar Obarra]

.

[justwin]

yeah, getting 17-1 on departing and 14-1 on IMLD is damn good. We just need Orb & Rosario to cooperate as well as my 2 horses.

[rhagood]

Couldn\'t find this wager on either drf bets or xpressbet website, did I miss something or was it only available on track or via simulcast?

[Lost Cause]

rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Couldn\'t find this wager on either drf bets or
> xpressbet website, did I miss something or was it
> only available on track or via simulcast?


You needed to choose \"preakness double\" as the track..the special doubles always have their own track name to separate them from a regular double on the same day..

[Paolo]

Pizzaman ought to be able to correct this. For what it\'s worth, my guess at the win odds based on the double payoffs. I\'d guess win odds will be flattened out, but this might give an indication of the odds in the exotics.

Code Select Expand


1 Orb 0.60
2 Golden 10
3 Title 60
4 Depart 10
5 Lute 13
6 Ox 18
7 WTC 12
8 Gov 11
9 IMLD 9


Never tried this before, but here are predicted $1 exacta will-pays if those numbers are even close to correct. I won\'t be surprised if they are off by more than a factor of 2! Exactas with Orb on top turned out to be close to what the win odds were. Pizzaman, what are the predicted trifecta payoffs with Orb on top??

Code Select Expand


WINNER↓ Orb Golden Title Depart Lute Ox WTC Gov IMLD
1 Orb 10 55 10 12 17 12 11 9
2 Golden 19 705 127 160 219 149 142 114
3 Title 112 753 768 968 1322 901 860 691
4 Depart 19 127 720 163 223 152 145 117
5 Lute 24 163 923 166 286 195 186 149
6 Ox 34 226 1282 231 291 271 259 208
7 WTC 22 151 855 154 194 265 173 138
8 Gov 21 144 814 146 185 252 172 132
9 IMLD 17 113 642 115 146 199 136 129


[Boscar Obarra]

The dd payoffs look kinda screwy to me. Not sure the real betting will reflect those numbers.

[pizzalove]

Paolo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pizzaman ought to be able to correct this. For
> what it\'s worth, my guess at the win odds based on
> the double payoffs. I\'d guess win odds will be
> flattened out, but this might give an indication
> of the odds in the exotics.
>
> 1   Orb   0.60
> 2   Golden   10
> 3   Title   60
> 4   Depart   10
> 5   Lute   13
> 6   Ox   18
> 7   WTC   12
> 8   Gov   11
> 9   IMLD   9
>
>
> Never tried this before, but here are predicted $1
> exacta will-pays if those numbers are even close
> to correct. I won\'t be surprised if they are off
> by more than a factor of 2! Exactas with Orb on
> top turned out to be close to what the win odds
> were. Pizzaman, what are the predicted trifecta
> payoffs with Orb on top??
>
>
> WINNER↓      Orb   Golden   Title   Depart   Lute   Ox   WTC
>    Gov   IMLD
> 1   Orb       10   55   10   12   17   12   11   9
> 2   Golden   19       705   127   160   219   149   142   114
> 3   Title   112   753       768   968   1322   901   860   691
> 4   Depart   19   127   720       163   223   152   145   117
> 5   Lute   24   163   923   166       286   195   186   149
> 6   Ox   34   226   1282   231   291       271   259   208
> 7   WTC   22   151   855   154   194   265       173   138
> 8   Gov   21   144   814   146   185   252   172       132
> 9   IMLD   17   113   642   115   146   199   136   129   
>
Paolo this is great.  It does look like My Lute and Goldencents are down to like 7-1.  I would be happy with some of the pays with Orb on top but this is such a downer compared to the possible pays of two weeks ago.  How low some of the Orb exactas go will have a big impact on what I do today.  Definitely not a day to box unless you feel strong Orb will not be in the money.  As for the tris I will only be figuring the odds on about 6 of them because this is all I will bet.  But ur info here is a huge help in plotting strategy so thanx.

[Paolo]

The Pim Special/Preakness double will-pays provided a pretty fair forecast of the actual win odds at post time:

Code Select Expand


  Predict Actual
Orb 0.6 0.7
Golden 9.6 9.5
Title 59.1 22.3
Depart 9.8 10.2
Lute 12.6 10.9
Ox 17.6 15.4
WTC 11.7 11.1
Gov 11.1 9.4
IMLD 8.7 8.5

The largest error involved Titletown, who got a lot more play on Saturday than he did in the Friday pool. Not only the Saturday win pool, but in the exacta pool as well. A lot of press in the local papers about his celebrity connections or just the occasional player looking for a score with the longest shot on the board?

The overall method, unfortunately, was less fair at predicting actual Preakness exacta odds than win odds, and it was rather poor at predicting tri and super payoffs. Would require somebody smarter than me looking at a large sample to determine the effects of boxing and wheeling and otherwise spreading out in the exotics before I could firmly conclude that there was some \'smart\' or \'hidden\' money on the winning tri and super tickets.

Code Select Expand


       [u]Winning $1 Payout[/u]      [u]# Winning Tickets[/u]
  Predict Actual Predict Actual
Exacta $204 $151 44,388 59,941
 
Tri $2,912 $1,031 3,207 9,638
 
Super $5,260 $1,818 870 2,680
 
Hi 5 $32,643 $16,094 8 17



On the surface, I don\'t see \'value\' in these payoffs for an average player; but there is obviously tremendous value to the presumed small number of players who snatched up over half of these very large mutuel pools. Any insight or opinions would be appreciated.