derby 1592 - "DERBY PROFILES"

[J-DUB]

Chris, do you have any preliminary data available for this years qualifiers on your Derby profile list or are you still waiting for final numbers from last prep races? Looking forward to seeing how they stack up and any opinions you can share. See ya, jdub.

[derby1592]

jdub,

I do plan to share the results of my Kentucky Derby computer model (that uses the Derby profiles along with a lot of other data) again this year. Thanks to some cool recent enhancements to the model (compliments of a friend), I will be able to provide a much better odds line this year.

Unfortunately, until I get the final TG figures, I really cannot crunch the numbers. Once TG puts out the figs for all the contenders, I can do an initial run, but the numbers may change a lot based on the post position draw. I will make a final run after the posts are drawn.

I did do an initial run by estimating the figs for the recent preps. This is a very rough estimate but it looks like Saarland and Perfect Drift are the top 2 picks at \"break even\" odds of somewhere in the 4-1 or 5-1 range with Harlan\'s Holiday not far behind with the rest (including the other favorites) all rated at \"break even\" odds of 15-1 or higher with the exceptions of the Request For Parole who looks like the best longshot bomb for filling out exotics and possibly Essence of Dubai (I cannot really do much with him until I get a fig for his last race, which I have no way of even estimating right now).

According to the model, this looks like a good betting race in that you can probably toss many of the likely favorites including Came Home, Buddah, D\'Oro, War Emblem, Private Emblem, Sunday Break, Johanesburg and Proud Citizen and the two key horses are both likely to be at double digit odds.

Thanks for asking.

Chris

[tread]

Amazing, your computer and mine think exactly alike.  I too will be making adjustments after post positions, but right now my wagers look like this:

3 Horse Box:
Perfect Drift, Saarland, Harlan

4 Horse Box:
add Request for Parole

saver tri:
top 4
over
top 4 + Dubai and D\'oro
over
same 6

I really don\'t like D\'oro at all, but have been burned so many times by Frankel in the past year, I just can\'t leave him out.  My method involves taking an average of the last 3 races and then using common sense to eliminate horses that I think are sure to bounce/02X (Buddah, War Emblem), or won\'t get the distance (CameHome).  Obviously don\'t have exact figures yet, but by looking at the figure Azillion got in the Spiral and listening to other comments made, I think I have a good idea.  Still worried about RFP being wiped out after his last race, not sure what to do about him.  The Euros are a tough call, but given they have never cracked the money, I\'m willing to take a stand against, while giving Dubai a small shot.

[J-DUB]

Sounds good, Chris. Nice to hear from you. It really does look wide open, does\'nt it? Harlan has danced all the dances and is right there every time but I thought the Bluegrass came up very weak this year and am not so sure the race helped or hurt. It for sure helped his connections wallets but not so sure it was one race too many. We shall see. Anyway, thanks for your reply and don\'t get brain locked putting all your info together. I know it\'s a lot of work. See ya, jdub.