Rosario

[mjellish]

Hi Kek,

To clarify.  I did not see a bounce coming for Orb.  In fact, I liked him to win the race.  I had no strong opinion of the horses I thought would come behind him.  IMO it was too tough to gauge how some of these colts would run compared to the sloppy mess on Derby Day.  I didn\'t think Goldencents would get the distance and run any better, did I didn\'t know that.  I didn\'t think IMLD would get the distance and run any better, but I didn\'t know that either.  I thought Mylute would run about the same.  Had no strong opinion on Oxbow or Will Take Charge.  Did not like Departing.  Did not know what to make of Governor Charlie or how healthy he really was.  Did not like Titletown Five at all.  Given all of that, and the fact that I thought Orb would run well and win, I thought the verticals were a poor play.

I was considering putting together a strong pick 4 or pick 5 play with Orb singled on the bottom.  But when Orb drew the 1 post I thought it may give him problems and decided to pass the race altogether.

The difference between you and I on this race is that you think Orb ran poorly because of his trip/ride.  I think he had a poor trip/ride because he ran poorly.  It\'s a chicken vs. the egg type of thing.  

My best guess is that Orb\'s last work was the final tipping point that put him over the top and he started to tail off coming out of it.  The work itself was awesome.  But how they come out of it is another story.  Same thing with Departing.  When I saw him getting saddled and walking around I could tell right away he had lost weight and his colt was dull.  Totally different horse than how he looked two weeks ago.