Great look back at history

[covelj70]

The following is an excerpt from what I thought was an excellent piece by Haskin warning people not to be obverly negative on Verazzano\'s Wood.  A great look back in history of horses who were \"unimpressive\" in their final prep.

I post this for 2 reasons.  First, I thought it was interesting.  Second, anytime I can bring up the Super Saver Derby and think about Jimbo cringing, I love to do so (sorry buddy, couldn\'t help it).

Ironically, the horse I like this year won his final prep and ran very fast doing so (on the TGs) but there will be others who look really interesting on the TG figures that didn\'t win their final prep and this recap from Haskin reminds us not to dismiss those


Just as a reminder to those who have now dismissed Verrazano as a potential Kentucky Derby winner, take note of past Derbys.

In 2006, Barbaro was undefeated and the 8-5 favorite in the Florida Derby. However, he hooked up in a stretch duel with the 6-1 Sharp Humor and was all out to win by a mere half length. He came back and romped by 6 1/2 lengths in the Kentucky Derby, with Sharp Humor struggling home in 19th.

In 2010, Super Saver was the 8-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten a neck by 17-1 longshot Line of David. Super Saver went on to win the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths, while Line of David finished 18th, beaten more than 60 lengths.

In 2007, Street Sense was even-money in the Blue Grass Stakes, but was beaten a nose by 8-1 Dominican. Street Sense captured the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/4 lengths, while Dominican finished 11th, beaten nearly 18 lengths.

In 1996, Grindstone was 8-5 in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten a neck by 11-1 Zarb's Magic. Grindstone came back to win the Kentucky Derby with a furious late rush, while Zarb's Magic finished 13th, beaten 17 lengths.

In 2001, Monarchos was 4-5 in the Wood Memorial, but was beaten nearly three lengths by the lightly raced Congaree. Monarchos went on to win the Kentucky Derby 4 3/4-lengths, running the second-fastest time in Derby history.

In 1992, Lil E. Tee was 2-1 in the Arkansas Derby, but was beaten a neck by Pine Bluff, Lil E. Tee won the Kentucky Derby by a length, with Pine Bluff finishing fifth, beaten 7 1/4 lengths.

In 1995, Thunder Gulch finished a dull fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes at 6-5, but came back to win the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/4 lengths at odds of 24-1. Wild Syn, who won the Blue Grass by 2 1/2 lengths, finished last of 19 in the Kentucky Derby, beaten 45 lengths.

In 2005, Giacomo finished fourth at 7-2 in the Santa Anita Derby behind 30-1 Buzzard's Bay, but bounced back to win the Kentucky Derby by a half-length at 50-1, while Buzzard's Bay finished fifth, beaten 6 1/4 lengths.

In 1994, Go For Gin was 4-5 in the Wood Memorial, but was beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Irgun. Go For Gin came back to win the Kentucky Derby by two lengths, while Irgun was forced to withdraw with a foot injury.

Going back to 1975, Foolish Pleasure was 1-2 in the Wood Memorial, but was all out defeat 12-1 shot Bombay Duck by a head. Foolish Pleasure

[jimbo66]

Jim,

You would bring up the 2nd worst Derby winner in the last 25 years, Super Saver.....    I say that hoping to get admonished again by Michael D. or possibly Sekrah.  (BTW, I say second worst, behind only Giacomo, IMO)

Good stuff by Haskin.

One major difference.

That difference being \"value\".  Many of those horses that didn\'t run as well in their final preps, went off at good odds in the Derby.  

With Verrazano, we are talking about the favorite, who ran what some people think was a less than stellar race.  Tossing the 3-1 chalk in a 20 horse field off a perceived sub-par performance is way different than tossing 24-1 Thunder Gulch off a sub-par performance, or many of the other longer shots he mentions..

[covelj70]

oh, couldn\'t agree with that more about the \"bad performance\" needing to create value.....like it did with Super Saver.

They didn\'t pay me any less that day becuase he wasn\'t a \"good\" Derby winner

ok, I will stop now, I promise!

[moosepalm]

Conversely, in the last two years alone, there were six last-race beaten favorites, all first tier preps:  Creative Cause, Union Rags, Hansen, Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and Soldat.  None of them necessarily ran up the track in the Derby, but, other than MMM, they didn\'t return to that pre-last-prep form, either.  I have no reason to suspect that going back ten or fifteen years wouldn\'t elicit many more examples of the same.  All of which is to say, like so many Derby theories, you can ferret out examples to support either side of the argument.  With regards to Verrazano, as with many others, maybe so, maybe not.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I have to admit, I am forced to at least rethink my position on Verrazano after this morning\'s Steve Byk show.  The king of all Mushes, Andy Serling, didn\'t like Verrazano\'s race.  Serling\'s last winner was Big Brown at 1-5 in the Preakness.........

I am kind of caught between a rock and a hard place.  I love that Treadhead is enamored with Verrazano, which emboldened my negative view on the Wood.  But that is somewhat offset by Serling sharing my view.  

I guess for now I will stick with the one horse that I have liked for 2 months, but unlike you, I was not smart enough to buy a futures position.  Orb.  

Pending Derby workouts and usual daily flip-flopping many of us go through Derby week, as we go on information overload.

[covelj70]

hah, this is so good on so many fronts.

If Orb looks right during Derby week in terms of his weight, energy, etc, then he\'s the one for me, there\'s nothing that ran last weekend or nothing running this weekend that would change my mind (I guess I shouldn\'t really say that since my horse is running but you get the idea)

I believe JB\'s big figure for the Fla Derby and that makes him all the more interesting to me since I liked him before he ran that fast

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> You would bring up the 2nd worst Derby winner in
> the last 25 years, Super Saver.....    I say
> that hoping to get admonished again by Michael D.
> or possibly Sekrah.  


I\'m fine with that, Jim. Glad he wasn\'t the 2nd best. Might have won by 10, but I wouldn\'t have seen the 35-1 in March, and my double with the huge Oaks favorite would have paid $15 instead of $56.


> (BTW, I say second worst,
> behind only Giacomo, IMO)
>
> Good stuff by Haskin.
>
> One major difference.
>
> That difference being \"value\".  Many of those
> horses that didn\'t run as well in their final
> preps, went off at good odds in the Derby.  
>
> With Verrazano, we are talking about the favorite,
> who ran what some people think was a less than
> stellar race.  Tossing the 3-1 chalk in a 20 horse
> field off a perceived sub-par performance is way
> different than tossing 24-1 Thunder Gulch off a
> sub-par performance, or many of the other longer
> shots he mentions..

[ajkreider]

Can\'t speak to all of these, but some had excuses.  If memory serves, Barbaro won from post 10 going short into that first turn.  And nobody wins from there (Big Brown the only other I think).  You made the right call to scratch out of that spot.

Street Sense\'s Bluegrass was universally panned, as there was a turf-like mad charge to the wire off ridiculous fractions.  It might have been the first year on synthetic. A complete toss form-wise.

Verrazano got what looked like the perfect trip.  Makes it a little more worrying.

[covelj70]

AJ, agree with that about some of the others dealing with less than perfect situations, good point