importance of bo, bi....

[CHOWDERMAN]

if a horse bo/bi while getting a new top, do you expect the big bounce next out what percentage of the time...

and, if that comes during a bounce after a new top, do you play back next time....

this pertains to today\'s 8th race at the big a....

[Wrongly]

I looked at this a long time since she is one of the top 3 but it\'s a bad sign.  She\'s come a long way from her first start to her top, so I tend to see this as the X.  Granted you were probably looking for value, but I think percentage wise she\'s not worth the bet.  

Someone else should weigh in here but that\'s my take.

[TGAB]

As a rule bore out (bo), bore in (bi) behavior often is a sign that something is amiss, either fatigue and something more serious. Counter intuitively some handicappers have contended that bo/bi occurrences in a top effort is a positive sign--the horse is exerting maximal effort to achieve and the bi/bo behavior is a simply a byproduct.

Almost uniformly a bi/bo occurring during a bounce or non-effort is thought to be a critically bad indication of current form.

Note you would be wise to view and judge for yourself just how significant the behavior was. We observe and denote it to make you aware that something did occur.

Also it\'s important to point out that in the context of tops there are other factors which come into play in terms of trying to figure out just how well a horse will run in the next performance such as time off before and since the big effort, how big the top was, how the horse has reacted to prior tops, the horse\'s development to date and likelihood of further development, trainer prowess, prior \"bad signs\" and how the horse reacted, not to mention the bo/bi behavior last time out, and I\'m sure others can add additional factors which could be relevant as well.

As to today\'s horse she is one of the top three and note that she\'s run 2 tops while behaving \"badly\" and then bounced last time earning another notation. She has come a long way and this could be an 0-2 awaiting the X but the bounce isn\'t that bad and if the notations weren\'t there the 2 effort wouldn\'t be that bad or unexpected given the pattern. Still... Note Thoro-Pattern gives the horse a 10% of a new top and 31% chance of a pair-up (within a point either way). Seems to me this is valid.