Overall 3 year old picture

[jimbo66]

I guess we need to see the wood and Santa Anita derby but I guess we are all putting our \"short lists\" together.  

Some thoughts:

1.  We have talked about orb plenty here.  A serious contender by any reasonable measure.

2.  If Verrazano runs lights out in the wood, he will likely be our shortest priced favorite in years.  Likely 2-1 or so.  Some of us want to see him hooked and others don\'t, because we assume pleather wont be able to get him to run in Kentucky.

3.  That risen star was a pretty poor race.  Second choices code west and palace malice were bad yesterday.  Put that race right next to the Remsen in my book.

4.  Revolutionary a pretty tough horse.  Could pay off in a big field but can\'t help but feel his lack of positional speed will hurt him unless the derby pace is super fast and we get a stretched out field

5.  After hemming and hawing I am going to give flashback one more chance to be a serious contender if he runs well this week. I hated that he was a bit rank and spit up the lead late.  But the pace was fast and he loses Frenchie as his jockey which should be good for a few lengths.

6.  After a few recent years where their preps have been important, I think a toss is in order for any horse coming via the oaklawn circuit and their preps.

7.  It will be an interesting oaks IMO.  I won\'t argue with anybody that says Julia is just too fast for the rest.  And if she was trained by anybody else but pleather and his long string of Kentucky failures I would agree.  But he has been bad there and it can be a factor.  The contrast to that would be Buffett who travels well and has an inexperienced and untested filly with a lot of promise. It will be a lot to ask to win the oaks off 2 races but she has the goods IMO.

[Silver Charm]

Pletcher has won the Oaks at least twice. Rags to Riches and The Starlight Filly. His strike rate is not as poor as the Derby.  Unlimited Budget is a pretty good 2nd Stringer.

[jimbo66]

Silver

Good point but both those wins were awhile ago and before he seemingly can\'t win in Kentucky for whatever reason

[TGJB]

Fortunately I have a pretty good futures bet on DWJ because it\'s going to be close to impossible to figure out what to do with her in Kentucky.

On figures this will be the best Oaks field of all time if everyone shows-- three fillies have already run zero or better. Havn\'t done the DWJ fig yet but there\'s no way it\'s not nuts, even if the track changed, just because of the gaps. May well be faster than Andy gave her.

[TreadHead]

Is the Remsen really still the gold standard for poor 2 year old races?  Why not the BC juvenile?

And why are we drawing such conclusions about the Risen Star?  The winner is injured and we\'ll never really know.  Oxbow hardly disgraced himself in his next start.  NI runs this weekend.  

Code West was disappointing in his second long ship in a month, this is true, but if you are holding Palace Malice\'s (or Sunbean\'s) performance against him you are really taking an overly simplistic view of that race.  The wall of horses that PM and Sunbean ran into is unlike anything I can ever remember seeing in a homestretch.  They were both moving very well and completely stopped cold for an extended period and had to move out like 7 paths to attempt getting around the wall.  I don\'t think you\'ve heard the last from either one of those horses, though they obviously will miss the Derby.

Revolutionary and Big Lute both have sheets that resemble many past winners, Big Lute\'s prior race not withstanding.  They both appear to have avoided going \"too fast too soon\" with the kind of patterns that suggest getting into the 0 range is not a huge reach in their next race, which could get money on Derby day.  

Even 4th place finisher Golden Soul, who is a sib to Quintons Gold Rush and having a pretty solid 2 yr old figure is possible to develop more as well.  I\'m not saying the field was full of grade 1 winners, but implying it was the worst stakes field of the spring (which is what the Remsen analogy is right?) is laughable.  Still lots of time, plenty could happen.

[jimbo66]

Tread head,

I am glad to see I am providing u more humor.

As for the Louisiana horses, except revolutionary, feel free to contact me about betting any of them back.  I will give u a premium over their closing odds

I continue to find excuses for half the horses in each we discuss that run poorly.   Very admirable.

I wish my wife and CEO were as understanding as u.  Not sure it as endearing in playing the ponies, a very unforgiving game.

Also, for the record I didn\'t say the worst prep this spring, at least not on its own.  I am also discounting the entire oaklawn sequence of runners (pending Arkansas derby results)

[TreadHead]

OK, so everything in Louisiana (minus Rev) and everything in Arkansas = the Remsen.  Got it.

If you want to base your entire analysis around whether or not the horse cashed a wager in its last race, that is certainly your right.  But those of us looking for value in the next race look for horses exactly like Palace Malice and Sunbean, whose trouble was incredible and very clearly cost them the ability to run anything near what they could have.