2nd time using TG's

[harrahs8325]

Hello, I used TG\'s yesterday for my 2nd time at Gulf.  Ended up a winning day.
I had 4/5 in pick 5, catching the $16 horse in first leg, singling katie, then going four deep and nailing the $59 horse.  I singled Bobby, I think I got sucked in.  I ended up with the winner in the 11th as well, $9.  I cashed 3 nice win bets on the card and showed a profit.  These were horses i\'d never have if I only used the DRF.  I completely tossed the winner of the Holy Bull as I thought he would bounce and that Bobby was a standout coming back fresh.  Could someone explain to me what I missed and how you guys played this race.
thanks for any input
Rob

[miff]

\"then going four deep and nailing the $59 horse.(9th Gulf)\"

TG analyst picked the $59.00 horse on top and this horse was one of the deciding factors in the NHC handicapping contest in Vegas.Not known if the contest winner used TG to pick this horse who looked very difficult from pp\'s, Beyer figs, as a maiden claimer moving up to MSW against some well bred ones.


Mike

[TGJB]

I gave the horse a \"buried\" mark (!) next to his only start, the only two possible horses to use in the contest were him and the second horse, depending on where you were in the standings. (I wasn\'t in this year). Bad break for our guys that it was a mandatory race, my guess is a bunch of stabbers looking for a bomb hit it too.

[covelj70]

Funny story on this one

I used the horse and made it my best bet so I was obviously going nuts when the horse was coming down the lane

After the race, the grumpy guy next to me says \"what the hell did you like about that horse\"

I said, \"it was a standout on the thorograph sheets\"

Guy just shook his head and spent the next 20 minutes grumbling to himself.

That race really demonstrates the power of these figures

[harrahs8325]

I said the exact same thing to the guys sitting near me. When they heard its $25 for sheets they told me I was nuts to pay that. This was coming from a guy handicapping from the NY Post.

[TreadHead]

Were you asking what you missed on ItsMyLuckyDay?

If you tossed him simply on assuming he would bounce, this is where you faltered.  After establishing a \"4\" as a solid 2yr old top, running his \"2\" last out is not that far a move forward, and actually what you would expect for a normally improving 3 yr old.

Now, the BO mark is a bit of a concern, but if you are looking for a bounce out of a healthy 3yr old it normally would have to be a much larger new top than 2pts.  

Additionally, even if he HAD made a much larger move forward, I tend to find that expected bounces that never materialize out of 3yr olds (or don\'t materialize until a couple races later) is one of the biggest issues with sheet theory plays.

**Sry, had meant to reply to the original post **

[sekrah]

I didn\'t read the TG analyis, but once you learn how to use these sheets, those $59 horses just jump off the page.  I hit the huge exacta with that one, and was alive for a big Pick 3 score, but stupid Itsaluckyday got me in the 2nd leg.  But that exacta more than made my day a good one.

TG\'s really are the best.  My neighbor is a degenerate horse player but has some thick block in his head when it comes to TG.  He can\'t get around paying that much for these and the layout is not his DRF, but losing $300-$500 every trip to the track isn\'t enough to wake him up.  I don\'t get people.

[sekrah]

Agreed Treadhead.. I shoulda had Itsaluckyday in my mix.  He really didn\'t look that bad after all.  I just got cheap on my ticket.   Bummer, was a nice P3.

[FrankD.]

Tread,

Great post especially heading into the Derby prep season pertaining to bounces.
Very few 3yr olds who don\'t move forward from their 2yr old top in their first or second out end up as serious contenders. The main reason that a majority of us lean toward the bounce is odds; most times the big last figure horse will be an underlay.The knockout doesn\'t always come in the next race as you said but it seems to linger longer and ruin a lot of good young horses after a monster effort early in the season.

The BO does bother me a bit but more so when and where in the stretch it happened.
Was he alone and getting lazy late or did it occur in the midst of a stretch battle?

Sekrah, you violated the covelj70 rule of horizontal wagers; never let the fastest or co-fastest horse in a race beat you out of a pick 3,4or6. Throw him in as a saver anyway. He had the same 2 as Bobby only @9/2 as opposed to even money
which in the horizontals against the 2yr old champion was probably more like 8/1.

Jim posted that theory a couple of years ago during the Spa meet about a race I took a bad beat on for a lot of money. I\'ve caught some good numbers on cripples with back numbers since because I won\'t let them beat again.
Thanks Jim.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[sekrah]

Definently Frank.   His performance after the 4, plus the \"bo\" spooked me.  But I still should have used him.  I used just Bobby and and Dewey Square, I liked the longshot possibilities in the other two legs and played them deep and got cheap on this one. I screwed the pooch bigtime on it.  The number of this race will be interesting.  It didn\'t look to me like a souped-up track record.  Those two blew away a field of several who had 4\'s.  Itsmyluckyday could be a legit Derby threat.