Offshore KD odds - who is the value?

[boston]

they are taking $500 max bets - Probabilities sum to 1.24

Bodemeister   4.34
Union Rags   4.37
Dullahan   8.67
Gemologist   8.16
Creative Cause   12.23
I\'ll Have Another   13.25
Alpha   17.32
Daddy Nose Best   16.8
Daddy Long Legs   28.51
Take Charge Indy   15.8
Hansen   14.27
El Padrino   21.89
Went The Day Well   25.46
Done Talking   40.72
Trinniberg   45.81
Sabercat   30.42
Liaison   50.9
Prospective   41.74
Optimizer   45.81
Rousing Sermon   51.91

[alydar61]

Looks like TCI and Hansen to me.

[justwin]

gemologist. I would love to see 8-1. i figure more like 6-1. post draw is giving gem additional attention. I don\'t hear too many talking about bode winning. i expect bode to be about 6-1.

[phil23]

I kind of agree regarding Bode\'s price.  A week ago figured he\'s fave for sure, but the way the talk is this week, starting to think we might see some wacked prices.

Such as Gem being, as you say, around 6 or 7,  TCI 7, DNB (getting tons of talk/play it seems) maybe 13\'s.  Of course that means others have to rise and sure seems like Bode is going to be one of those.

Imagine if they make Calvin the fave.

[alydar61]

The way I view it, Gem passes Hansen just prior to the wire. Hansen is a beautiful specimen, but I just can\'t get by the distance question. He does like this track though, and if he can relax just off the lead he will be tough. There is a great vid on YT of him rolling around in the sand a few days ago in Louisville. This is a happy, healthy young horse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSyNze9zXmw&feature=related

TCI with Borel will likely be underlaid on track. Like his chances for money though.

[sighthound]

I can\'t see Hansen being around past 1 1/16.  I think he\'s brilliant and gifted, but has a wall.   I think Hansen will be in the last 10 horses over the wire when all is done, covered in dirt.  Someone convince me otherwise?

[boston]

with all the talk i do not believe that we will be able to get DNB at 17-1 on track.

[justwin]

I think it will be a little lower than that. maybe 13-15/1. same odds as Take charge indy, alpha & I\'ll have another.

[Wrongly]

Come post time TCI will be the 3rd choice in the race, UR, Bode, TCI, and Hansen. The money to be made is only having one of those horses hit the board, if two hit the board we are looking at a $100 trifecta.

[mjellish]

I dunno about a $100 Tri or TCI being 3rd choice.  I think even if it finished UR/Bod/Gem, which is probably the chalk of the chalk, you are looking at a $300-400 Tri.  With all the dead money that pours in the exotics it\'s just tough to see the Tri coming in less than three bills.  Best example is probably 2007, with Street Sense the favorite 4.9 - 1, Hard Spun the 4th choice at 10 - 1, and Curlin the second choice and nearly favored at 5 - 1, the Tri paid $440.

Agree that TCI will be an underlay, but I doubt he\'s third choice.

[boston]

bode 3.7
ur 4.5
gem 8.5
dull 9.0

[justwin]

seems crazy to me that gem is 8.5. I am hoping.

[boston]

it is crazy - however, these people are accepting real dollars and the people aren\'t taking the 8.5-1.