Closer bombs for KyDerby

[Ill-bred]

How about Rousing Sermon as a \"use underneath\"

Shows some grit on video review. Plausible at 10f.

La Derby a good fit in his overall line.

[JR]

I love horses moving forward off matching their top for the 3rd time. He has nice spacing since his last race and lot\'s of Princequillo in his family. I can see him running in the 2 range.

[sekrah]

I will absolutely being using Rousing Sermon in my exotics.  I think it\'s no-brainer to do so.  Pattern is not horrible for a move forward, there\'s a very good chance the pace is smoking, and there will be many horses mailing it in before the stretch.

[drbillym]

\"Many horses mailing it in before the stretch.\"  Actually, I think the jockeys, in these big races, get overexcited and move to soon.  Desormeux on Real Quiet is a prime example.  Look at last year\'s Breeder\'s Cup, and a couple of the bombers that were totally impossible to figure, scored coming from behind after premature jockey moves.  
Sekrah, thank you for stating in a previous post that it took you 5+ years to learn how to use the TG figures.  When I listened to Jerry at a Saratoga seminar, I kept thinking there are just too many angles and patterns to analyze to become good at this.  So I will just have to wait until I retire to tackle it appropriately.
Covelj, good to see you posting again and not part of the Goldman Sachs insider investigation!
My last subject will be unpopular.  Last year, all the analyzing, thinking and posting was pretty fruitless.  These big races are a different animal.  I like to look at intangibles-for example, Mike Smith choosing Bodemeister probably means that the mount he abandoned, Daddy Nose Best, has a great shot.  
But reading the posts is half the fun  -  It\'s the journey, not the destination.

[Gerard]

I\'ll get laughed off the board for this, but looking at Done Talking underneath as well.

      1. Made a left turn leaving the gate in last from an outside, 13 post. From this far outside a slide down to the rail is ground loss and exertion not accounted for in the final number. He never made it to the rail as he needed to alter a bit, but I allow around a point for this move which puts him on par with RS for his last.

      2. He did beat 13 horses. Albeit, painfully slow horses, but he is a closer. He did it by running through the field, not around it. He was covered in dirt after the race, good style for closing in Kentucky. It\'ll be interesting to see the Herd whisperer\'s comments on him.

      3. He was step for step, maybe closing a bit on El Padrino, in the Remsen. EP was pinned down for a long time however.

Probably be 18th or 19th betting choice.I\'d like him more in other years, but unfortunately there are a lot of consistent, faster horses in this years group.Good luck to all.

[big18741]

Leparoux off Daddy Nose Best is a good angle IMO.

Mike Smith on then off another good one.

If Robby Albarado ended up on him then you\'d really have something.

[Beginner]

Hey Big,
If I recall correctly, you were the only one (I think) that really liked Animal Kingdom last year.  Since the topic seems to be \"alternative angles\", can you share any insight as to why you liked him?  I\'ve looked at his sheet 50 times and I still don\'t see it.  Thanks in advance.

[TGJB]

Doc-- last year and some other recent years there were issues of horses not having run on dirt. Much less a factor this year. Historically the TC races have been tremendous betting opportunities using TG. The trick is not to think of it differently from other races from a BETTING (as opposed to handicapping) point of view-- there\'s a tendency to want to be able to say you hit the race rather than to bet it to make a profit. You can hit one of these TC races every two years and show a big profit.

[toppled]

I just looked at the Derby again & I think Rousing Sermon might be more than just an underneath horse-If the race falls apart a la Giacomo, he could win the race at 30-1 or better. He looks horrible when looking at who has beaten him, which is part of my standard handicapping, but look at his sheet, his last race is a return to his 2yo top & he could be explosive and he\'s got the perfect running style if the front runners all spit it.  He\'s definitely going to be included in my Oaks/Derby doubles and if I don\'t have the double going, he\'s going to get a small win bet just in case.    
If there was a prop bet at OTB that I could take him to finish ahead of Hansen, I\'d take it.

[big18741]

I really liked Pants On Fire best but had to bet early in the day on Friday without knowing that horse was gonna be less than half his ML.

I did some smaller stuff with AK just because he was training so well on dirt.I liked his turn of foot from his allowance grass race at GP and he put in an extended run in the Spiral which seems to bode well in the Derby.He looked like he had a lot of stamina and he figured to be long.

I like Dullahan for many of the same reasons other than price.