Pop Quiz #3

[TGJB]

This one is a trick question--

Back in July, Shake You Down won a big money stake in Florida, in a 13 horse field, from the outside post, by more than 8 lengths. He earned an enormous Thoro-Graph figure of NEGATIVE 4 1/2 (!), a Beyer of 121.
In October at Santa Anita, Bluesthestandard ran third to Avanzado and Captain Squire, earning a 2 1/2 (6 points worse) on TG, and a 103 (18 points worse) from Beyer.
They both lost about the same amount of ground in those races, Shake You Down carried more weight.

Ragozin (the Florida number) and Friedman (the California one):

a) also gave Shake You Down a much bigger figure

b) gave both horses the same figure.

Okay, it\'s not a trick question, except for my saying that to confuse you, because these questions are too easy. As you would expect, they gave both horses the same figure.

Now, part of this is obviously the problem that I have pointed out before, that Ragozin (Friedman) has the California sprints too fast, and the routes too slow, since they don\'t split them to do the variants, which is (often, not always) necessary. But there is more to this one.

I had to gulp pretty hard to give Shake You Down that big Florida figure, and I was really happy when he ran back to it 2 starts later (although he certainly didn\'t have to for the figure to be right). Ragozin got that figure right, in the Belmont allowance win last time. But he chickened out from giving the big one in Florida-- in fact, according to Len, the horse has run substantially FASTER 3 times this year. Meaning, if you believe Ragozin-- on Shake You Down\'s best race he would have won the Calder race not just by 8 1/4, but by 14 lengths, at 6 furlongs, against stake sprinters-- meaning he would have run 11 points faster than the second horse. Just think about the figures that Beyer and I would have had to give out if that were true.

Just so we are clear, nothing in these pop quizzes is meant to be an endorsement or knock on anyones chances next weekend, especially when it comes to Eastern horses shipping cross country. Those opinions will come in the seminar.

TGJB,

I ran across this at the DRF. It\'s only part of a conversation with Beyer. I am looking for the rest.  

wgh13:
6:11 pm Could you please explain how Shake You Down earned Beyer rating of 121 in the Smile Sprint running 6F in 1:10.03 while Valid Video earned a Beyer fig of 110 running 6F in 1:10.15 on the same day in the Carry Back?

 
ANDY_BEYER:
6:13 pm My partner Mark Hopkins, who does the Calder figures, agonized over that day and concluded that the track had gotten slower when Shake You Down ran. Obviously, he ran a blockbuster race winning by 8 over that field. There\'s no way Valid Video could have run in the 120 range, however