Derby Seminar 2010 Thoro Pattern study question

[phil23]

During the intro to the derby seminar for 2010, the study of Thorograph patterns states that the only one really good pattern (producing most new tops) is a pair of Tops coming into the race.  

Just to clarify, does this mean that the horse ran two new tops in a row in his last two pre derby starts?  Specifically would it be:  TOP-TOP?

Or does it mean a TOP in his 2nd to last race, with a PR in his last race - specifically: TOP-PR?

I am inclined to believe it\'s the former, but just wanted to double check.  Thanks.

[TGJB]

It means he matched his top in his last start.

I\'m getting a headache just thinking about how tough that seminar will be to do this year.

[phil23]

Aha...ok.  So TOP-PR.  Actually makes a bit more sense that that one would be the best.  You would think, just based on sheet theory alone (especially for developing 3yo\'s) that a TOP-TOP pattern would be a bit more likely to lead to a bounce.  

Not to be a bother, but any chance we might get the Pre-derby numbers only sheets special this week?

[TGJB]

Last year we put it up exactly 2 weeks out, probably will do the same this year.

[covelj70]

JB,

Any chance you guys could put a package together that we could buy as a special with sheets for the top 25 on the graded list so we can start to do our homework on the sheets.

No one is going to be able to break the top 25 from here with the remaining races left so it\'s just a matter of how many of the current top 20 defect or get hurt from here in order to see how far down the list we get.

1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,550,000
2 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O\'Brien $1,294,030
3 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170,000
4 Dullahan Dale Romans $855,000
5 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836,000
6 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703,855
7 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $701,429
8 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698,400
9 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $670,000 --
10 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $660,000
11 I\'ll Have Another Doug O\'Neill $601,000
12 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558
13 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000 --
14 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380,000
15 Prospective Mark Casse $367,327
16 Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311,000
17 Went the Day Well Graham Motion $282,000
18 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270,000
19 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260,000
20 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Reveron Agustin Bezara $220,000
22 Isn\'t He Clever Henry Dominguez $188,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $184,708
24 Castaway Bob Baffert $162,000
25 Currency Swap Teresa Pompey $150,000
26 My Adonis Kelly Breen $140,000
27 Brother Francis Jim Cassidy $135,000

[TGJB]

Should be coming out in a few days, as I said below.

Trinniberg out, El Padrino in?

[covelj70]

that\'s great, thanks

Trinniberg people pointing to Preakness it looks like.

Really their only move as there is enough early gas going in the derby with bode and Hansen that for a sprinter to go in there would be suicide.

El Padrino is already in as will likely several behind him

Unfortunately, history says there will be 3 or 4 more to fall out before race day, I just hope it\'s not any of the real contenders so we have as deep as field as possible

[Wrongly]

Prospective is said to be 50/50 after 6th place finish in Blue Grass.  Wrote is out but no word from Baffert on Liason or Drill yet.

[TGJB]

I\'m fine with a couple of contenders dropping out, if they\'re really contenders, not just favorites. Makes it easier to handicap and narrow things down, and since it\'s the Derby you\'re going to get prices anyway.

[big18741]

AE list this year so up to 24 can enter on Wednesday.

[phil23]

Drill staying in SoCal, def no derby.  Liason flying into CD next week to train, if goes well he will run, according to BB, who also has said in past he hated the SA surface.  I\'d imagine he\'ll run.  Would be surprised if Casse does not run Prospective as well.  Reveron was going to go in the LEX but now that\'s he basically Next Man Up, they\'re going to take their chances.

Incidentally, Grenning reporting today ALPHA has/had infection from cuts suffered in Wood.  Missed a few days.  Supposedly fine now but not shipping to CD early as per plan.  If ok, will ship on 30th.  Would think this cinches things for Dominguez to ride Hansen.

[phil23]

If Alpha is open, I would not be surprised to see Rosie on him, which as far as price speculation, would seem to drive his down, given what happened to Pants on Fire last year.  Mind you this year with the top one\'s being so tough, hard to see how much lower his odds could get driven down.

[miff]

Speaking of Rosie, she\'s live most of the time, getting a huge push from many outfits in NY.Tough little cookie in the irons.


Mike