Hollywood Stakes Today

[Dana666]

The Generous: A few main contenders I think.
1-Handsome Mike: Seems ready for the step up to stakes (though the horse she beat in last didn\'t win the other day). Lots to like from rail. Superior breeding for the stretch out. Fast number. Melody Conlon and John Liviakis (you won\'t get a square price though b/c JL will bet about 10K on her!)
6-Major Magic: Unknown quantity--she has upside and talent for sure. Was goofing around in previous starts/very green. Neil wouldn\'t be putting her here if he didn\'t think she could handle it. A definite maybe.
7-Battle Force: Shown some talent and is the main closer in a speed-packed field. I\'m not sure I agree with the number she received in last, I think she paired and beat a weaker bunch, but she is hard to look past and should give a decent account of herself. If you do trust that number, you\'d have to love her chances b/c she won geared down! Gorgeous filly.
2-Blue White Fire: Seems to me like she\'d be more effective at longer distances. Seems like a strange spot to me???
I\'ll pass on the rest.



Derby
6-Venomous: Tremendous closer. Really breathes well. Very dangerous.
9-Irish Art: Interesting long-shot. I think there\'s some upside to this one--Rosario bails for the top choice though.
12-Wilcox Inn: Couldn\'t have looked any better at Hawthorne. Certainly the one to beat numbers-wise. Only issue is the post, but there is a long run  to the first turn. Do you want the fav. from post 12???
11-Ultimate Eagle: Done nothing wrong. Speed hasn\'t been too kind though lately. Will have to earn it the extra furlong.
3-Slumber: Hard to gauge. I think his number in last is too fast (or not definite) as it was a straight race. Can\'t toss with confidence though.
4-Western Aristocrat: Will have to race from behind today, so not sure really what\'s coming. He also earned a fast number which I might question as they went 116 for six furlongs! But he does have a classy look to him. Disposed of Brilliant Speed without turning a hair. Not sure.
1-Cloud Man: Does sort of fit on numbers and gets the rail, probably not impossible but I think he needs to step up some.
5-Surrey Star: Earned 2 BTL\'s in last two, and I couldn\'t tell you why--on numbers his pattern isn\'t bad either, but I just can\'t bite. If you can, you\'ll get 20-1.


In other races, The Roan Ranger is worth a look in the 10th--they really gave him a race in his last and he still ran a legit number--scary with any improvement. I think Transgression in the 7th is a gorgeous animal and Alokee was on my horses to watch list (hasn\'t been seen in a year). Third race is stakes quality. CIA is a beast--his last race was from another planet! Smash also has shown talent and Indian Winter is no slouch! Should be a great race.

[Sandreadis]

Thanks Dana.
FWIW. Cassidy stated on TVG that Surrey Star has battled foot problems throughout his career. He has been fitted with new shoes and he complimented the blacksmith for his work on this colt. He said(as they all do) that the colt should run well.

I really liked Thisismystage in her last. She probably steps up to stakes company in her next. Put her in your stable, she might be one to keep an eye on.

[Dana666]

Agree, Thisismystage is a really nice one! Thanks for the info. Cassidy has been hot lately.  Hmmmmmm....

[Sandreadis]

I\'m going with Casino Host. Firm Turf with pace to run at. 13/1.

[Dana666]

I thought Handsome Mike ran very well. Bejarano had no clue going 22 for the first quarter. I wish Smith had ridden him back. Maybe if he could have just relaxed in behind the speeds like he did down the hill (which I thought he would do) he would have saved a little for the last furlong. Still, I was impressed with his try.

Ultimate Eagle is the real deal, how could I bet two horses that Eagle beat without giving Eagle a shot??? Not too smart.

Can some one tell me why horses out of town run huge numbers and then don\'t run a step in California? This has been going on for a long time now, you think I\'d catch on one of these days.

[plasticman]

I hear you Dana, both Wilcoxx Inn and Never Retreat looked brilliant on video, brilliant in the warmups and neither horse ran a lick. Neither horse was even remotely competitive after coming off races where they were running out of their skin at the wire. There must be some reason, but i agree with you, i\'m just not sure what it is.

[miff]

\"I hear you Dana, both Wilcoxx Inn and Never Retreat looked brilliant on video, brilliant in the warmups and neither horse ran a lick. Neither horse was even remotely competitive after coming off races where they were running out of their skin at the wire. There must be some reason, but i agree with you, i\'m just not sure what it is\"

Plastic,

You will hear many theories why they didn\'t run, from shipping to bouncing and more which are all possible. Truth is, sometimes the just don\'t run without any explanation.

Dana,

Re Ultimate Eagle(got away cheap today) look at his prior race carefully. You will see the wicked middle splits that he fought thru and maybe conclude that if the pace was fair today, Venomous, Cloud Man and Surrey Star(all equal or better figs) had little chance against UE, all else equal.Race dynamics, going in, appeared to look kinda favorable for a fast early pace which did not materialize.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Agree to an extent Mike that Ultimate Eagle walked the dog but what was surprising to me was the respect Wilcox Inn recieved.  It is difficult to envision a scenario where he could have been competitive given the step up in class, extreme change in configuration and woeful post; yet he went favored!.  On the other hand thought Slumber was an absolute standout and looked something to five off the paper.  Tossing the twelve panel heat he had improved figurewise every start, could not be any better bred, had worked super and looked the part, sans the pony. Would think he will be a monster 4yo for team Mott.

Once again \"trips, on turf\" trump ability!   bbb

[miff]

\"Agree to an extent Mike that Ultimate Eagle walked the dog but what was surprising to me was the respect Wilcox Inn recieved\"


Bell,

Did not use WI at all. Stidham does not do well outside of AP and FG if memory serves.Turf very often produces trip winners and bad trip horses to follow, hedge king for the most part.

Mike

[TGJB]

Dana-- for the same reason a lot of horses coming from the northeast or midwest don\'t run well first time Florida or Dubai. Shipping from cooler to warmer climates is tricky, and unless I\'m getting a big enough price to compensate, I don\'t bet them unless they\'ve been on the grounds long enough to show at least two works. For some reason grass horses are a little more likely to handle it (Cristoph Clement also figured that part out, he said it to me once).

I didn\'t see the race, but Miff\'s point about trips on the grass is dead on. That was a very large field separated by only a couple of points of ability-- in situations like that the winner often doesn\'t get the best figure.

[plasticman]

Miff i hear you loud and clear. Funny thing is that these are \'elite\' horses at the top of the game, these are horses who\'ve won a million dollars (or are on their way to a million). Horses like this are the cream of the crop, these horses are supposed to be able to handle anything and almost always run a representative race.

I think there have been too many horses in the past who have shipped to Calif with gaudy resume\'s and flopped and were embarrassed, not running a lick.

Then, you see a horse like Goldikova show up at Santa Anita in 2009 and she has no problem with \'not firing for some random reason\'. Maybe the key is that a horse who is going to ship a long way to race in So Cal needs to be specifically prepped and pointed for his or her specific race. I think if you just ship because its the next \'logical spot\' in that horse\'s campaign and don\'t prepare in some specific way to make sure that horse WILL fire a shot, you might be the next Wilcoxx inn or Never Retreat.

The point that a lot of these horses are \'equally matched\' and trip, post position and ground loss are huge factors, i believe that\'s a large part of things.

[Rick B.]

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Horses like this are the cream of the crop, these
> horses are supposed to be able to handle anything...

Not to nitpick, but I believe this line of thinking gets a handicapper in trouble.

Just my $0.02

[Sandreadis]

In the Hollywood Derby, they ran 6F in 14 and 1. The speed ran 1-2 all the way around the track. Can\'t we just chalk this up to a Sl. Pace race and move on? The closers never had a chance and the speed closes the last quarter in 23 and 3.
IMO, it\'s tough to blame the horses for not firing trying to come off the pace in this race.