Saratoga Thursday

[FrankD.]

Fast & Firm, a fairly steady overnight and early morning light rain that both courses could use. inner rail is 18 feet today, Mellon is 12 feet.

A terrible race card with 2 jump races and nothing bet-able IMO until the 7th.
Looks like I\'ll get caught up in the office today and not venture north.

Late Pick 4:

7th race  Rule, J.J. Pletcher not much more to be said, I\'ll use the fresh and forward moving Glenwood Canyon as well just in case.

8th race  Mott using Bridgmohan ? Don\'t Cry for me, forward moving latest hot connection on turf of Solis / Shug Abaco, and a couple of lesser tickets with Cindy\'s Joy and Dynaqueen at big prices.Very interesting that Dominguez rides for a 20 % Woodbine trainer on a 0 for 10 maiden.

9th Race   Annawon from the fence for Mott/ J.J. praying for anything close to the morning line along with Get A Grip for Motion. I\'m hoping Pletcher horse 2/1 ML takes all the money !!!

10th Race  Must uses on the Chad Brown 3 horse and the light weighted, forward moving 5, lesser tickets on the 2 speedy outside long shots Gudahi & European Roulette in case they blast off ?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Lost Cause]

Rule does seem to be the single of the day.  Even at his short price it looks like he is going to get loose today and roll along..Try to find the value in the others.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
  9th Race   Annawon from the fence for Mott/ J.J.
> praying for anything close to the morning line
> along with Get A Grip for Motion. I\'m hoping
> Pletcher horse 2/1 ML takes all the money !!!

  Nice Call!

[FrankD.]

Richie,

As par for this meet it wasn\'t a major wager. I\'ve yet to hit a real bet but still holding a few dollars of house money. A modest win bet and exacta box to keep the ball rolling.

Good luck,

FD

[banditbeau]

Frank - good pick with Annawon, but am curious as to what made him such a good pick?  I know he was on the rail, but he figures to be about 4 lengths slower than the horse you picked correctly for 2nd, off that ones lifetime best, but who was 66% to run an off or X off his previous 9. Annawons efforts this year already exceeded his TGI and 4yo expectations, and was 50/50 to pair his last 9, so as such much improvement from him seems a stretch.  I passed the race, (thought Pletchers favorite #8 was the most likely winner), so just curious of your thought process.  bb

[FrankD.]

BB,

All good points, the Motion horse Get A Grip had the back 5 to wreck this field but is an ouchie. He was off from Jan.-April & May -August with a vet scratch in mid June. In 3 starts this year he had not come close to running back to his 3 yr. old top, was outside and had Prado riding. Edgar is not quite up to what he was a few years back to say the least.

Annawon was lightly raced until this year, broke through to a 2 point new top in his first start at 4 and ran right back within a point in his next start. 2 poly races in 2 weeks, one with a lot of trouble and still only 2 points off his top.
A 10 > 9 in 2 races back on the turf, 4 weeks rest, the rail, and J.J. who is riding like Jerry Bailey on the turf theses days = breakthrough time for a new top.

Unfortunately I went very heavy into the pick 4 instead of crushing this horse and the exacta. With Rule and this race I felt confident and I spread 4 deep in the other 2 legs with horses I liked.

The Pletcher horse had only developed 4 points in 2 years, he ran a 9, 5 times at 3. In his first 4 yr old race ran back to his top and has only moved forward 1 point to an 8. Probably as fast as he\'s ever going to get, outside and bet at 2/1 = TOSS and probably take 75 % of the pick 4 pool with him. there was no value in the pick 4 with Rule and him unless the other 2 legs produced bombs as 1 leg did ?

Are you going to make it up here this year from the land of 10,000 lakes ?

Good luck

FD