Ruthenia in Retrospect

[richiebee]

How about past posting on a filly who DIDN\'T WIN?

Last Saturday\'s Hattie Moseley (ungraded stake) was an open race, which was
reflected on the tote board. I took a strong stand on Ruthenia, a daughter of
Pulpit trained by Chris Clement.

When Ruthenia won her first 2 career starts on the Belmont turf last year, I
thought that she might provide some competition to 2YO divisional leader Winter
Memories. WM has turned in a couple of eye catcning performances and is being
mentioned as a possible factor against older turf F/Ms down the road. I saw
enough in Ruthenia\'s Hattie Moseley second place finish to think that she might
have enough room for development to upset WM,especially at 10 furlongs or beyond.

A side note: Ruthenia was ridden last Saturday by Alan Garcia, mired in a
momentous slump. Given the following observation by Ed Fountaine in today\'s New
York Post, it might pay to follow \"Garcia off\" runners: \"Time for the stewards to
remind the jocks to ride their horses through the finish line. Here (second race
Wednesday) the photo for show clearly shows Alan Garcia on 5/1 Al Maudeer
beginning to stand before the wire, allowing 9/1 My Wahoo, Shaun Bridgmohan up,
to nail him by a nose for third. Garcia, who won the Saratoga riding title three
years ago,is now 0/33 at the meet.\"

Obligatory (and thankfully El Jefe has spoken out on this) TG analysis:
Ruthenia was arguably the fastest filly in the race on her TGs, was a square
price, the only turf SW in the field and is a full sister to Rutherienne, who had
won the Lake George Stakes for Virginia Kraft Payson (I still haven\'t forgiven
her kinfolk for ruining the Mets in the 1970s) in 2010. Would love to see her get
another Spa start sans Garcia.

[Wrongly]

Richie

You should get a few of those Garcia off horses this weekend, he\'s scheduled to ride a couple at Mountaineer on Saturday.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Respectfully disagree with your post-race TG analysis of this race.  To be fair to me, I was in \"violent\" disagreement with TGAB\'s analysis of this race also.  

I hit the \"all\" button in the pick-4 in this race, for the first time in 6 months.  Every single horse in this race had run an 8 or a 9 on turf, except the 20-1 ML longshot from the rail, who was turf-bred and had run a 6 on dirt.  Ruthenia had run a 7.5 top, with her secondary top in the 9/10 range.  She was the second choice in a 10 horse race where all 10 horses were within a point of each of other, on their best, and many looked OK on pattern to run \"their races\".

This race was absolutely built to take a shot at a price horse, not to take the first or second favorite.  The blanket finish confirmed that the horses were very similar on talent level.

At least you had an opinion that Ruthenia had more upside than the others and this was the basis for your selection and opinion.  I am still spinning over TGAB\'s analysis of this race.  In a weekend full of many good points and picks by our co-host, I didn\'t get this at all.  He said basically the same thing I said above in the seminar, that all the horses were very close on talent.  But his conclusion somehow was to bt extra on the two favorites.  I guess this is contrarian.  I would say if all things are equal, I am betting the longshots.

[richiebee]

Jim:

Your comments reflect our conversation leading up to the race. As I have told you
in the past, I am not guided by TG #s alone, with all due respect to the
Thorogods.

Ruthie was marginally fastest in the field, comes from a top turf barn, and was
the only turf SW going in. Add this to the fact that I had been following her
since her 2YO season and this resulted in a win wager for me on a day where I
really did not like much else on the card.

It is more interesting to me that none of us really liked Stay Thirsty, who won
rather easily. Will be interested to hear your comments regarding a possible Coil/
ST matchup in the Travers.

[Edit to original post: Rutherienne won the Lake George in 2009, not 2010].