Saratoga Weds 5th

[alm]

There have been several comments to the effect that posting selections without explanations is somehow less respectable.  So here is a non-descript race at Saratoga tomorrow and the thinking behind how I will bet it...and why.

It\'s the 5th, a maiden claimer that\'s interesting on some level.  I only see 5 competitive horses and 2 may be longshots.  They all appear equally interesting.

Number 1 hasn\'t raced in over a year, but most importantly came out in its only 2 races last year with numbers that are competitive here.  Hushion trains it and has a good record with layoffs.  He got a decent rider and although he is dropping the horse, which might indicate he\'s giving up on it, it\'s not a significant drop.  If he wanted to dump the animal he would have placed it a lot lower.

Number 2 is the morning line favorite and has also run competitive numbers.  It could win if it runs those numbers, but like the 1 this one has a spotty record.  Something went wrong somewhere, but I can\'t throw it out because this one is fast enough if he\'s healthy enough.

Number 6 is very interesting to me, but its one race is very slow compared to the two horses above.  The good news is it switched to the Hushion barn which wins over 30% in the first race after a switch.  Dominguez taking the mount only makes this one more appealing.

Number 8 is another one with which the jockey assignment wakes me up...Castellano is riding as good as anyone at the Spa and takes an 8-1 shot?  This one\'s numbers are slow, but they were both on synthetic.  This is its first shot on dirt and it worked nicely on dirt, if not spectacularly, preparing for this one.

Number 9 has one dirt sprint on its record with a slightly below competitive number (for this group) but a number that is close enough.  The jockey is as cold as they come, but is also as talented as they come.  The trainer has a strong record with this type of horse if not a low ROI.

How will I bet this?  There are too many contenders, with too many short priced entries, to go horizontal with it.  But there are enough longshots in the mix to deserve a vertical spread...a 5-horse tri box.

I could hit this and lose money on the bet, but I am willing to take the shot that one of the two longshots wins it or both of them hit the board.  In either case it could pay off nicely.

[drbillym]

Number 8 Special Action was privately purchased and given four works on dirt at Saratoga by new connections.  Picks up JJ and seriously intend to win first start for new outfit.

[djr2000]

Special Action started off 5 lengths behind the field and finished with a rush of course to end up fourth 7 lengths off.  Tearing up tickets now.

[kaufmanjsk]

I used to make some good money with the inside post at 1 1/8 mile at Saratoga do you know if there is still a bias like that there? Lately I have been hitting up Del Mar. Sorry to hear about the tearing up the tickets, horse racing can be a roller coaster but tomorrow is your day my friend.

I know the Whitney Handicap Invitational is going on this Saturday with Pletcher having Mission Impazible and its at that 1 1/8 distance, but Flat out has that inside post and looks good too!