Blind Luck vs Havre de Grace and Track Profile

[jbelfior]

More important than a few pounds is track profile.

At 1 1/4 at Belmont or Aqueduct, I would bet HDG over BL every time. At Saratoga, Churchill,  or Santa Anita, BL gets the edge.............. At Delaware, its real close.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

Agree with the \"concept\" of the track profile, on a given day, affecting the outcome.

If you look at Delaware in the days leading up to Saturday and Saturday itself, you will find that there was a closer\'s bias for about a week.  The \"wide\" sweeping move from behind was a good move to make.

That said, I have no idea why you would say Santa Anita\'s track profile favors Blind Luck.  She ran relatively bad there, the track was pretty extremely speed favoring on both days she ran stakes races there this spring and with her tactical edge, would take Havre De Grace on that type of track any day.

jim

[Lost Cause]

It just seems like BL has her at this distance.  HDG seemed to have a perfect trip although DOminguez for some reason decided to angle out 3 wide around the first turn but he knows that track better than anyone so maybe it was a better place to be, other than that she took the lead and just got run down by a horse that might be just a bit better at that distance.  Just watched the race again..Love it..

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

I should have been more specific re: Santa Anita. I meant when they finally put real dirt there instead of the brown tar they have there now.


Good Luck,
Joe B.