Another Look

[alm]

Over the years I have learned a ton more about handicapping on this site than I have from any other source, from Tom Ainslie to Andy Beyer to Steve Davidowitz...and lots of others including theoretical approaches from people like Bertram Fabricand.  But I\'ve twisted through interpretations of sheet numbers too and have come to believe that some of the basic value here is not only in the interpretation of form cycles, but the absolute bottom line of \'how fast is this or that horse?\'

I know it\'s simplistic to view it that way, but the real surprise payoffs I\'ve seen over the years have come from winners whose efforts harken back to a number that is sometimes old...sometimes very old.  I don\'t draw any conclusions from this other than to say I have to start with the basics in analyzing any race.  And I appreciate other people giving me a sense of the twists and turns from that point onward.

As for this Belmont, the four most accomplished horses, absent any interpretation other than their numbers, are Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Mucho Macho Man and Nehro.

In the group immediately behind them are Master of Hounds, Santiva and Brilliant Speed.

All I can say about this second group, based on my experience, is that their best numbers were earned bumping up behind the first group of four.  In other words, they were dragged along into their best performances.  That\'s not great in my experience.  This is not a powerful indication that they can jump up over anyone in the first group.

However, the real question is: can the four in the first group reproduce their best efforts?  Nehro would seem to be the most eligible, being the most rested.  We only have hearsay and workouts to guide as as to the shape the other three are in.  I\'m not willing to say Nehro is going to beat this field, in part because he appears to be the weakest of the top four.

I am also not willing to throw out Shackelford because of his post position draw (a non-event) or his supposed distance limitations.  He hasn\'t proven to be limited in any way as yet.

So it all boils down to deciding whether to focus on the rested underachievers?  Right?  Or, as I will do, giving a lot more credit to those in the top four...and hoping that their odds, whatever they are, are skewed higher because more people are taking shots at lesser animals.

[msola1]

Alm,

Who is Bertram Fabricand? A google search didn\'t locate him.

Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Try Burton...

[Boscar Obarra]

curious as to what great insight you got from Fabricant

[alm]

Go to Amazon, where his books are still available...don\'t necessarily buy them...his approach was almost completely mathematical and aimed at discovering underbet favorites and second choices...sounds silly, but it is serious work...and it worked for me...producing low, marginal returns...in a way it is something like the massive bets made by the computer-aided syndicates that operate around the world today...guys who look for the imbalances in payoffs in exotics for the most part.  Back then, he didn\'t have the hardware or software to explore what they discovered...so he concentrated on the expected confusion in the odds of the top 2 choices in a race, when they looked alike...so maybe an 8-5 shot paid 9-5...small edges.

[msola1]

Rich,

How are you spelling it exactly? I cannot find him in Amazon or Google.

[alm]

It\'s Burton P. Fabricand....but believe me, you don\'t need either of his 2 books...I doubt you will ever bet horses his way...about the only thing it will help with is identifying overbet or underbet horses...you still have to pick the winners.

[Boscar Obarra]

The method was dubious even at the time, but today, with a zillion different pools and  fast late odds changes,  I doubt it has any value at all.

[Michael D.]

After another look, I\'m sticking with Brilliant Speed. Looks like a Colonial Affair type - a good amount of turf in the pedigree, slow at two, and a forging pattern at three with a new top heading into the race ... CA won the Belmont a while back when few of the others got the distance. Not sure how BS is going to handle the off going, but he\'s got some strong distance genes below tracing back to Belmont winner Touch Gold, and a nice mile and a half stride. Like the post, and I like the jock. Don\'t see much better than the Ky Derby \'2.5\', but if BS is able to extend that run, he\'ll pick off a number of tired horses, possibly the entire field.

BS might be a turf guy in the end, but he's my pick in a weak running of the Belmont Stakes.