The Oaks

[Dana666]

Really interesting race. I agree w/the race analyst that this is a stellar field!

My main contenders are

6-Zazu: I like that she\'s battle tested and always tries. Very hard for me to look past her in any equation.

3-Summer Soiree: I think she\'s the real deal despite her humble breeding; a true alpha filly, she really appears to need the lead and be in her own little world. There are a few others who could press her, and if she\'s stuck on the rail being pressed, I think she may not like that one bit, but if they leave her alone, they\'re in trouble.

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Others--

1-Joyful Victory: Here\'s the key to the race. She\'s got nothing but champions in her family though I\'ll say the Oaklawn races really shaped up for her, so I\'m not willing to say she is as awesome as she looked. She\'ll have to prove it to me, but she could.

12-Plum Pretty: I would think the post no bargain, but she\'ll likely stalk and there\'s not that many other speeds in the race, so she may not be too wide; I always thought she wanted no part of sprinting, and when she stretched out, you all saw the result, albeit vs. very weak foes. Wouldn\'t be willing to toss her though she does have to prove it against top foes, and she never got close to Zazu, though those races were shorter than she probably prefers. She can\'t bounce and win this race though, that\'s for sure.


4-Kathmanblu: Hard to fault her, really, but I\'m always a little wary of early bloomers when the rest of their division catches up to them as appears to be the case here. Can\'t blame you if you like her, but I may take a stand against her; if I\'m going with a closer, I\'m going with Zazu over this girl. Obviously, they had this race in mind after she won the Golden Rod, but things don\'t always work out like that. A tricky read for me here. The last race was obviously a set up for this race, so she probably will go forward, but will it be enough???


I will watch how the track plays, and if for some reason speed is really good, I might upgrade the upstart Summer Soiree, might be crazy but for some reason I think she might get clear without too much hassle, but I do think Zazu is the filly to beat. Of course, Joyful Victory could be any kind of horse, but you\'re taking a short price (the favorite?) on a filly who really didn\'t beat much and had the race shapes flatter her style, plus Mike Smith and the rail seldom get along very well. Tough call there, too.

Seem like a great renewal! Good luck to all.

[sekrah]

Kathmanblu is my key

Kathmanblu returns to the scene of her top, after pairing up on yielding turf, rank at Fair Grounds, and over the Keeneland poly.  I and penciling her in for a big move forward here.


Underneaths

Zazu - Very good chance she pairs IMO and that\'ll be enough to cause a racket here

Plum Pretty - Pair is extremely competitive

Daisy Devine - Pattern looks ready to explode for a big forward move and she\'s training well.  At the price, I\'m using.

St. John\'s River - Geez, was hoping this one would draw better than this.  At 30-1, I cannot leave her off the bottom of my tickets.  Another one that\'s sitting on a 3-5 point top.  



Tossing Joyful Victory and Summer Soiree.  I\'m not blown away by either these two at their prices.   Probably kick myself later, but gotta make a stand to make any money in this game.

[Dark Bay]

St John\'s River - Improving full sister to the very useful Panty Raid.  Hope Rosie can carve out a 3-4 wide first turn.

Her Smile - Really like how her splits in the Comely  matched up with those of the Bay Shore and the Wood.  Barn switch doesn\'t hurt.

Her Smile:       23.2  46.2  1.10.2  1.35.4        - 8F
Bay Shore        22.3  46.0  1.09.4  1.22.2        - 7F
Wood             23.2  47.4  1.12.1  1.37.1 1.49.4 - 9F

[Boscar Obarra]

Rosie , wow.

 As for the winner, some one or ones absolutely unloaded on this one late, crushed in all pools, and cut the winning exacta in half (not so easy to do in a 1.7 million pool) in the last 5 min.