Terrific result today for those of us who like Honor and Serve in the Derby

ajkreider · March 01, 2011, 05:38:09 PM

Thing is, with horses that are genuinely special, they\'re good enough to win even when not at their best. How many special horses, with no trip excuses, finished 4 lengths behind the 2nd place horse in a prep, and then went on to dominate the derby?

Not saying he\'s not the horse to beat come May, but he\'s got to improve 10 lengths off this effort to even be a candidate for the \"special\" category.

15-1 isn\'t bad, but not worth it. If the target is the Derby, Mott won\'t have him fully cranked for the Florida Derby either. And if he finishes behind some combination of Dialed In, Soldat, Sweet Ducky, and Gourmet Dinner, you\'ll be able to get 10-1 at least come derby day. For reference, there were exactly TWO horses that went off at better than 10-1 last year. And if THAS goes in with no prep wins, he won\'t be among the top 3 choices.

Footlick · March 01, 2011, 08:39:13 PM

Kelso never won off a layoff. Not that I think THAS is Kelso, but just wanted to say not every great horse fires off a layoff. some need a race to get them in gear.

sekrah · March 02, 2011, 02:56:54 AM

ajkreider...

Funny Cide was licked in the Holy Bull and Louisiana Derby (both 2 month layoffs)and came within 5 lengths of winning the Triple Crown.

War Emblem was a non-contender until late in the game. He did crap up until Mid-March.

Grindstone missed the board in the Bluegrass but somehow ended up winning four Grade 1 races, two Grade 2\'s, and $2.6 million as a 3 year old.

Go For Gin was completely written off after his Florida Derby effort.

Sea Hero dominated the Champagne and was hyped as a Derby favorite.. until he finished 9th of 10 in his 3-year old debut in February.

So when Secretariat was hung wide in the Wood and spit the bit in the stretch for a 3rd place finish in the Wood, TWO WEEKS PRIOR TO THE DERBY, his chances were shot right?

It\'s pretty asinine to think that a horse has no chance because he finished 3rd off a layoff, ten weeks prior to the Derby. I can only come to the conclusion that either you don\'t play very much, or you just are ignorant of history.

ajkreider · March 02, 2011, 06:37:01 AM

Well, let\'s see.

For starters, you\'ll note that I said I wasn\'t claiming he won\'t be the one to beat in May. Just expressing my doubts about his being a \"special\" horse and the wisdom of a 15-1 future bet. It\'s pretty asinine to think that someone is claiming the horse has no chance, when they explicitly said that\'s not what they\'re saying.

Your examples:

Funny Cide - a very good horse, but not even the best of his generation. Empire Maker and Peace Rules did better head to head.

Go for Gin - Didn\'t win another race after the Derby = not special. Not even better than Tabassco Cat

Grindstone - Never finished worse than second as a 3 year old. Maybe he finished off the board in the Bluegrass because he didn\'t run in it. And winning the Derby by a neck and then retiring does not equal special.

Sea Hero - A good horse, but 6 wins in 24 starts is not special

War Emblem - Maybe special. Don\'t remember how he did prior to the Illinois Derby. Perhaps an example.

That leaves Secretariat - perhaps the greatest horse in history. Okay, he was special, and he did finish third in the Wood with an abscess on his foot. Maybe THAS is Secretariat.

Michael D. · March 02, 2011, 06:52:58 AM

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thing is, with horses that are genuinely special,
> they\'re good enough to win even when not at their
> best. How many special horses, with no trip
> excuses, finished 4 lengths behind the 2nd place
> horse in a prep, and then went on to dominate the
> derby?
>
> Not saying he\'s not the horse to beat come May,
> but he\'s got to improve 10 lengths off this effort
> to even be a candidate for the \"special\" category.

Aj, the wide trip distorts those beaten length numbers. THAS\'s running style will result in ground advantage more often than not.

> 15-1 isn\'t bad, but not worth it. If the target
> is the Derby, Mott won\'t have him fully cranked
> for the Florida Derby either. And if he finishes
> behind some combination of Dialed In, Soldat,
> Sweet Ducky, and Gourmet Dinner, you\'ll be able to
> get 10-1 at least come derby day. For reference,
> there were exactly TWO horses that went off at
> better than 10-1 last year. And if THAS goes in
> with no prep wins, he won\'t be among the top 3
> choices.

Agree on the value. Super Saver was a $50 horse in pool 2 last year, and he was on the verge of a monumental rider change. THAS might get a negative rider change.

And I\'m a bit concerned that Billy Mott was surprised that THAS didn\'t have more to offer in the final 1/4. If Mott had said he got exactly what he expected out of the race, I would think the window for improvement would be bigger.

The \'0\' at 2 is very strong, but it\'s also a 100 Beyer. It\'s baked into the cake. Where\'s the value?

I\'ve been a fan since day 1, and maybe the FOY # comes back stronger than I expect, maybe stronger than Mott expects, but I\'d call THAS an underlay at this stage.

streetbull · March 02, 2011, 05:30:09 PM

In my past readings of the books \"Think and Grow Rich\" by Napoleon Hill and \"Unlimited Power\" by Anthony Robbins, I got the strong impression that if one person wants to be very successful at one endeavor, he is to surround himself with successful people and/or to establish a mastermind group. It behooves one to find someone or some group who are successful at one\'s endeavor and model their success steps. I have been reading this board for almost 3 years now, it has some great contributors who are successful in their own methods or their own interpretations of the same data from this board, but sometimes it pains me to see this board spearhead a poster because they disagree on viewpoints or opinions. I was glad to see that a certain clown has gone on his merry way somewhere else with his whimsical harbingers and bantering..

Micheal D. is entitled to his own interpretations of the form cycle of THAS..and make his investments accordingly...If one differs, they can share their views and express their sentiments on the board. But harbingers should be cast aside...this game is challenging enough..Otherwise, we wouldn\'t have shocking long shots like Giacomo and Mine That Bird....

Personally, I think that the full picture of this year\'s Kentucky Derby won\'t be clear until the end of the second week of April....In the past, we had some late bloomers like Charismatic and War Emblem....

big18741 · March 03, 2011, 05:45:57 AM

15-1 in Pool two seems like a fair price assuming THAS runs better next out.I think he drifts up a little higher than that pending Gotham,San Felipe,Timely Writer and TB Derby results.

He\'s one of those bandwagon type horses.A solid effort next out and it fills back up for Derby Day.The resume will look pretty good and they\'ll really play up the Mott angle targeting this race since last year.I\'d expect something like 6-1 with a return to better form in his next -so value that way and you can always go a different direction in the race itself.

Footlick · March 03, 2011, 07:48:30 AM

I look at many blogs, and post on many, including European ones. There is bickering and spearheading on everyone of them, but I find I learn more here. I don\'t feel like I am in too deep when looking at thoro-graph figs and interpreting them anymore. I am not as experienced with figs as others, so I really appreciate the discourse on how each handicapper interprets the figs. This is one of the best learning blogs around as far as I\'m concerned. Thanks to all for making it that.