A comment on predictions about Derby odds

[covelj70]

Just a random thought on a slow day as I wait for Richard\'s Kid to hopefully launch a big 6 year old campaign in Dubai.

There have been a bunch of comments both on this board and in other conversations I have had recently with very informed and respected horse people about expected odds that horses who have success in their final prep races will go off at in the Derby (assuming they make it to the Derby).  Obviously, alot of these conversations are people trying to play the futures in Vegas or in Pool 2.

In general, I have found that people generally assume that the odds will be much lower than they actually are on Derby Day.

I really don\'t mean to pick on anyone so I am not going to call out specifics from any other posts but let\'s all remember that the Derby fav was 6 or 7 to 1 last year.  Street Sense went off at 7-1 after having been 2 year old champ.  Lookin At Lucky was 6 or 7 to 1 after having been 2 year old champ.  Super Saver was 7 to 1 or so after having set a track record on the same surface the year before and having the jockey that had won 2 out of the previous 3 derbies riding him.

Yes, Eskendreya got hurt at the last minute last year and he would have been very low odds had he run and come into the race the right way but other than Uncle Mo, there\'s no one this year that the betting public would pound down the way Esk would have been bet or Big Brown was or I Want Revenge would have been.

Again, none of this really means anything at all right now, just some random thoughts when we think about what kind of odds we would need in pool 2 or in Vegas to justify playing today with the risk that they don\'t make the race instead of waiting for the race itself.

My own approach to the futures now is to only take horses with triple digit or near triple digit odds very early on and hope for the best.  Otherwise, I will just wait to see who is actually in the gate.

I have Machen at 100-1 right now (which doesn\'t look that great) and then I have ArchArchArch at 250-1 which seems ok but not anything that I can get too excited about given the electric slide that he did coming down the lane last time.  I also have a Monzon ticket that will be used for IRS write off purposes.  That might as well be 10,000 to 1 at this point.

[ajkreider]

Agree with this completely.  Even when you have a prohibitive favorite (Big Brown\'s 2 or 3 to 1), the odds on the other horses go through the roof.  Which is why BB\'s tri was 3K and the super was 50K.  It\'s unbelievable really. The favorite wins and the tri is still 3K. Eight Belles, the 4th choice and one of the few other horses with the figs to be competitive, went off at 13-1.

Seems to be a direct result of the 20 horse field.

Since 2001:

# of horses going off at lower than 10-1

2001  -   5
2002  -   6
2003  -   6
2004  -   4
2005  -   4
2006  -   5
2007  -   3
2008  -   3
2009  -   3
2010  -   3

# of horses going off at lower than 6-1

2001  -   1
2002  -   0
2003  -   2
2004  -   2
2005  -   2
2006  -   2
2007  -   2
2008  -   3
2009  -   2
2010  -   0

So, outside of, say, in a normal year - The Wood, Santa Anita, and Florida derby winners, everyone else is at least 10-1.  Such a good betting race.

[covelj70]

Thank you so much for providing the actual data.

I knew it to be true on a high level but when you look at the actual numbers, it\'s pretty staggering.

Thanks again so much.

[big18741]

Maybe this will help:

2010

Super Saver 8-1
LAL 6-1
Sid Candy 9-1

Keep in mind this was the year after ridiculous bomb Mine That Bird so that is fresh in bettors minds and another off track as well.

2009

Friesan Fire 7-2
Dunkirk 5-1
POTN 6-1

2008  

Big Brown 2-1
Col John 9-2
Pyro 5-1

2007

Street Sense was 9-2
Curlin 5-1
Scat Daddy 7-1

2006

SNS 5-1
Barbaro 6-1
Bro Derek 7-1
Point Det 9-1
Sin Min 9-1

2005

Bellamy Road 5-2
AA 9-2
Bandini 6-1
High Fly 7-1

2004

SJ 4-1
LHeart 5-1
Tapit 6-1
Cliff Edge 8-1

2003

Empire M 5-2
Peace R 6-1
TMW 6-1
Buddy Gil 7-1
ATS What 8-1

2002

HH 6-1
MDO 6-1
Saarland 6-1
Came Home 8-1
Perf Drift 8-1
Johannesburg 8-1

2001

PG 9-5
Dollar Bill 6-1
Congaree 7-1
Balto 8-1
Mill Wind 9-1

[phil23]

This is obscenely too early but what the hell:

horse        odds
Uncle Mo   2
Soldat           7
Dialed In   10
TH&S       10
The Factor   12
Flash Point   12
Brethren   15
Mucho Macho Man   15
Stay Thirsty   25
Jaycito           25
Sway Away   30
Rogue Romance   30
Astrology   40
Machen           40
J P\'s Gusto   40
Toby\'s Corner   50
Comma to the Top 50
Elite Alex   50
Albergatti   60
Silver Medallion 60

The all-up for this is 122%.  So that\'s pretty much the takeout we\'ll be looking at on Derby Day.  

M0 - On one hand, his two year old Triple 0\'s are impossible to get past.  On the other hand, look at War Pass.  -3.50.  A ton faster than Mo.  But of course too get there he had to come down from an 8.  Obviously Mo is far less likely to bounce or not at least get back to his 0.  

So...assuming away the pedigree 10furlong problem (how many times recently have we seen derby winners that ought not to have gotten there - Smarty, Funny Cide).  I do not think that is a very relevant question anymore.

So...assuming away that, every time I go to bet a horse this year, I just feel like grabbing my head and saying, \"wtf are you doing?  Uncle Mo CANNOT lose.\"  Now, obviously any horse can lose.  

So...the question is, how does Uncle Mo lose assuming he makes the starting gate, which give the baby fingers that TAP is using on him, seems rather likely.

In fact a better question might be, how does he lose the Triple Crown, because I guarantee that TAP is absolutely babying him like this because he knows what those 5 weeks are like and he thinks he finally has one that can get him there, for real.

One other little observation.  Without knowing the number he ran in the San Vicente, I think The Factor is, well, not really as fast as everyone talks him up to be.  A 10 and a 1 plus whatever the latest fig is.  Before I saw his sheet, I expected his second start to absolutely be in the negs.  Not so much.  I think he is over-rated, even as a sprinter, relative to his hype.

Anyway, just one man\'s confusion regarding a race that is still 2 months away.