Fairgrounds Race with an eye to the Derby (futures)

[jimbo66]

Interesting race yesterday at Fairgrounds.

The time looks OK relative to the filly race, if Kathmanblu ran about her 4 or so.  Also looks OK against the older horses at the same distance.

My first reaction is that Mucho Macho Man is live at 35-1 or so in the derby futures pool, especially when you factor the 3w/2w trip he got.  With the 0 last year, he was already fast enough to compete.  He may have gotten back close to that figure.

However, upon second review, Santiva ran a helluva race.  Santiva spotted Mucho Macho Man 6 pounds and was a path wider on each turn.  Currently 48-1 or so in the DErby futures.  The probem is with a 2 year old top of 7, this looks like a huge new top.  But at almost 50-1, might be worth a flyer.  

Stay Thirsty at 45-1 catches the eye for \"value\" as well.  A two year old top of 2 and by Bernardini out of a Storm Bird, it would seem the distance wouldn\'t be a problem.  

Looking to take a couple stabs against good old Uncle Mo.  Can\'t aruge with any of his 3 races last year, but not loving Indian Charlie on top for the Classics.

[big18741]

Played the first four finishers out of the Risen Star in future exactas under To Honor and Serve:

Machen 975
Mucho Macho Man 599
Rogue Romance 541
Santiva 670

Risen Star hasn\'t been impactful in regards to the Derby but I came away from it thinking some of the horses in the super yesterday might be relevant in May.

Might revisit in pool 2 if THAS gets beat in the FOY next Saturday.He certainly doesn\'t have to be cranked up off the bench.

[number5858]

I\'m not even sure I would like Uncle Mo at 7/2 on Derby day depending on post position, preps, etc. Can\'t see taking those odds in pool 1. Mucho Macho Man had a nice gallop out and is a fast horse. I agree with you and like 30-1 there much better.