Some Early BC Classic Thoughts

[jimbo66]

A few thoughts on the Classic, or at least the top contenders IMO (without seeing the full sheets).

Blame - I have read all the comments about quite a few on the forum thinking the JC Gold Cup was a good prep for this horse.  I have to strongly disagree.  This horse didn\'t run at all in the JCGP and you can\'t like that.  Comes off paired negative 2.5\'s, which were fast races for this horse, then bounces.  Hard to like this horse to run back to his top.  As for race dynamics, also hard to believe this horse will outkick a few of the closers in the field.  I think this horse is very similar to Lookin at Lucky, in that both are closers, both have a top around negative 2.5, but LAL will be coming into the race \"in form\", as a 3 year old getting some weight, and with significantly more upside than Blame, who may be \"over the top\" after the big win over Quality Road.

Zenyatta - I have already overwritten about her.  I will let her beat me at around 2-1 or so, which is what I believe she will go off at, assuming a representative field.

Quality Road - I have to admit, I am strangely drawn to this horse.  Brilliant at his best.  However, after the Whitney, my first reaction was that it was an AWFUL race, despite the big TG figure he got.  The Woodward wasn\'t any better IMO.  Now, there is no doubt that at his best, this is the best horse in the race.  But can he be at his best at 1 1/4 and are the last two races signs that he is \"over the top\" in his form cycle?  Don\'t believe he is a \"pea-hearted horse\" as several on the forum have suggested.  Too many solid wins like when he got passed in the Florida Derby, crushed an \'in form\' Captain Candyman CAn and then ran huge in the Met Mile.  However, with both distance and current form questions, can\'t blame anybody for trying to beat him as the likely 2nd choice.  Although I will have him as one of my two \"pick-4\" horses despite the questions.

Lookin at Lucky - I am very late to jump on this horse\'s bandwagon, which is usually the \"kiss of death\".  However, to me he is the only one of the \"big four\" without question marks.  Zenyatta is a \"false favorite\" based on slowish figures and question marks around dirt (IMO).  Both Blame and Quality Road have questions as noted above.  Lookin at Lucky has the negative 2.5 top, will get a few pounds from the older males, and comes into the race with the most upside IMO.  I guess the 1 1/4 is a question, but I believe he will handle it.  The challenge will be getting a good trip, as Garcia seems to take this one wide all the time (based on a few races where he got stuck on the inside - SA Derby and Ky Derby).  I wouldn\'t want to lose too much ground in the BC Classic.  But do believe this is the \"now horse\" in the race and the right value as the likely 3rd choice.  Also you know Baffert knows how to get horses ready for the big one.  I am hoping some get scared off by him racing in the Indiana Derby in his prep race.  Not sure what kind of figure he will get in that race, but based on the Beyer and the extreme wide trip he got, I am guessing the figure will be OK and won\'t hurt what his overall pattern looks like.

Anyway, some early thoughts.

[Silver Charm]

Could not agree more here.

But Im not as scared of Quality Road at this distance as others. The question becomes how healthy is he. Period.

If he is not Lookin at Lucky is the horse to beat.....I mean bet!

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Would love your objective thoughts on Richard\'s Kid?  

Too slow given only a slightly negative figure as his best?

He has won 2 grade 1\'s and a grade 2 this year and, as you say, Baffert knows how to get them ready for a big race.

Will be 20-1 or more, enticing at all or just too slow?

[plasticman]

How about Blind Luck getting a ton of weight as a last second entry?

Gotta imagine the connections saw how close Switch got to Z, maybe it has them thinking.

[jimbo66]

Plasticman,

Blind Luck will be in the Ladie\'s Classic and will be one of the two horses to beat there, along with Life at Ten.  My guess is she gets a pretty good figure spotting 10 pounds on Saturday in the Cotillion.  I don\'t think she would be the first to win the ladie\'s Classic off the Cotillion as I seem to recall maybe Ashado running there and maybe even losing (could be wrong on that).

Covelj,

I have to admit that I haven\'t seen Richard\'s Kid\'s sheet in a while, since I don\'t play the plastic much.  I would be less concerned about the synthetic numbers being a bit slow than I would be about dirt affinity for Richard\'s Kid. At 20-1 I would never discourage anybody off a horse though.  If you believe there are major \"chinks\" in the armor of 3 of the 4 favorites (as I do), then it becomes more plausible to consider horses like Richard\'s Kid to win.  If Quality Road can\'t run his race at 1 1/4 (or is \"over the top\" in his form cycle), and Lookin at Lucky doesn\'t improve, then all of a sudden a negative 2 can win here.  If a negative 2 with ground loss can win, then a negative 1 or so with the right trip can win.  That puts a whole bunch of horses in the game.  

I guess I am in the camp that is somewhat hoping/thinking Quality Road is the fastest horse around and Lookin at Lucky is the 2nd fastest, with the most upside, and my multi-race tickets will be structured that one of those two statements is correct (going 2 deep in the pick-4/pick-6)