QUESTION FOR covelj70?

[high roller]

I just read in the DRF that after 4 days at Keenland 95 million worth of horses have been sold. Last year after 4 days, 117 million had been sold.

How is that a healthy sale if you revenue keeps going down and down hard?

[covelj70]

High Roller,

You know the answer to this, you are just being a wise guy here.

Keenland catalogued many fewer horses this year and that makes sense given that many fewer horses were bred 2 years ago.  The excess supply is slowly coming out of the market (we still have aways to go here) and that\'s one of the things leading to higher averages and medians and a slightly lower buyback rate which are the true indications of the health of the sale

The same article says that after 4 days, the average and median are up comfortably from last year.  You conveniently don\'t mention that in your post.

Let\'s not go back and forth on this, you think the market is falling apart, I don\'t and the averages and medians so far back that up.  It\'s ok to have a different view. No big deal.

Now, the real test of the health of the market is today becasue today is the day that I am selling my yearling!  Given this point, we can almost be certain that the sale will fall apart today

My agent doesn\'t think I will get my reserve price so I don\'t have any big expectations.  

High Roller, I promise to come back and post if I got my reserve or not and then you can gloat and tell me I am an idiot about believing in the health of the sale if I don\'t get my reserve!

[covelj70]

High Roller,

In a fitting conclusion to this string (hopefully), I got 1k more than the reserve.  So not exactly a home run but a happy ending.

Thanks for the dialogue.

[basket777]

congrats

who was the horse out of ect?

[covelj70]

thanks so much

It was hip 953, Lemon Drop Kid out of a Saint Ballado mare.

Same cross at Charitable Man but, much like Charitable Man, this was a small horse and he is a very late May foal and unfortunately, he had some minor vet issues (which were obviously fully disclosed on the radiographs which you have to have on deposit with Keenland before for sale for everyone to see).

So, I was happy to get out of this one with a very small profit (undersocre very very small).

I think the buyer made a good buy as I think this horse will be very good as he is very well conformed (albeit small) from a fast family (the dam ran a 2 as a top on the TGs) but I bought this one specifcially to resell and I am currently fully loaded with race horses in the stable so I wanted to move on.

Thanks again

[P-Dub]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> High Roller,
>
> In a fitting conclusion to this string
> (hopefully), I got 1k more than the reserve.  So
> not exactly a home run but a happy ending.
>
> Thanks for the dialogue.


Glad you got a happy ending, something I believe every man strives for.

[covelj70]

Thanks so much P-Dub.  

Much appreciated.

[high roller]

Covel, I don\'t wish you any ill will. I would hope you get a great price. My feel for the market is that 18% less revenue equals weakness. A business that can\'t grow is in trouble.

[dannyboy135]

Jim,
    I have had similar experiences recently.  the market is such that in many many instances you have one person  bidding against the reserve and as such horses sell for one tic above the reserve.  I too have held onto too many sales horses and have become much more realistic about setting reserves
     that being said, Next years foal crop will be the smallest in years.  this  correction was long overdue.  I still have mares that don\'t deserve to be in my pasture, but giving horses away these days is difficult to do.  If we can weather the storm we will reap the benefits when the sun shines.
     I much appreciate your post and analysis.  keep it up and extend my best to your very pretty wife.
all the best,
danny

[covelj70]

Danny,

Thanks for the great thoughts and I very much agree.

My wife is blushing as we sit here reading this.

Incredibly kind of you and I really look forward to seeing you again soon.

[Kasept]

So disingenuous... The sale format is completely different from last year.. a fact that has been well documented but must not have reached your rarified, high-rolling air.

Through 4 sessions year to year:

2009: 703 sold, AVG. $167,368; MED. $110,000 (B/B 35%)
2010: 527 sold, AVG. $181,131; MED. $120,000 (B/B 32%)

Any other misinformation you want to spread?


And JC, congrats on the sale! Don\'t know much about Venezualan buyer Rafael Celis, but he was the owner of that El Real Madrid, the claimer (taken by Bill Cesare) that Dutrow ran successfully twice in 4 days at Saratoga a few weeks ago.

[covelj70]

Kasept,

Thanks for the post.

I hadn\'t made the connection between Celis and El Real Madrid.

That\'s cool, thanks for pointing that out.

[high roller]

There is really no sense arguing if you are going to whistle past the grave yard.

The fact of the matter is that they are selling HUNDREDS LESS HORSES THAN LAST YEAR AND THEY ARE GETTING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS LESS REVENUE.

Yes excellent horses are bring good prices (not top-dollar), mid-level and lower-level horses will not sell well if at all.

Yesterday there were 2500 people at Belmont the game is in deep, deep trouble. I wonder if Thoro & Rags are seeing there numbers way-off?

Across the board from farms, consignors, breeders, trainers, owners, everyone is affected. Only reason I commented is that sometimes I cannot remain quiet in the face of either ignorance or boosterism.

[jma11473]

High roller, if you want to quote handle numbers, that\'s fine, but if you\'re worrying about attendance in an area where everyone is either wagering online or at least off track, then you\'re more behind the times than it seems.

[sighthound]

>>The fact of the matter is that they are selling HUNDREDS LESS HORSES THAN LAST >>YEAR AND THEY ARE GETTING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS LESS REVENUE.

Do you not realize that, regarding numbers, they have cut out the junk on the bottom?  Poorly bred, poorly conformed yearlings that should never have been bred in the first place, that are lucky to bring their $1K the last week of the sale, if that?

We\'ve had too many horses on the ground for a few years now.  Yes, an oversupply.  Not every mare should be bred, but they have been.  These \"breed anything to anything\" horses are disappearing as the market tightens.  That\'s good.  Not bad.

This year consignors are still paying for the old higher stud fees from the conception of this crop.  That will go away with next year\'s crop, too, increasing profit margin.