The Whammer at DMR on July 21

[plasticman]

On July 21 at DMR, The Whammer ran a very fast number, much faster than he had ever run before. Most of the fast number was accomplished because of extreme ground loss. The pace of the race was very slow and the last quarter was a dead sprint. I know the methodology of TG is that they can only give you the number and you have to \'interpret\' it.

In the Whammer\'s next start (which was this past Sunday in a higher class) he went off the 6th betting choice at 12.50-1 and was completely outrun and completely outclassed despite being the  most \'talented\' horse numerically off his last start.

The public didn\'t \'buy into\' that number because the horse went off 12-1 yet, plenty of big bettors purchase TG or Rag (or make their own figs) and that horse still didnt take any real money. Now, if you\'re going to purchase the TG\'s and not use them, why bother purchasing them at all?

Isn\'t the idea to purchase the numbers, see that this horse has a faster number than his competition and bet this horse? Maybe i\'m overestimating how much money is speed figure driven?

Beyer had The Whammer at 83 i think for that race, which was a bit slow compared to the winner and some of the other contenders. I can see him being 12-1 if you just look at the Beyers. On Andy\'s numbers, this horse is too slow. On TG, he\'s the fastest horse in the race.

Explain to me why this horse was ignored in the betting.

Thanks guys.

[jbelfior]

You know the old saying....it\'s not how fast they run, it\'s how they run fast.

Sounds like a lot of people at DMR remembered that.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Plastic,

You will often find TG/RAG horses with the best fig(normally ground loaded) ignored by the public, especially one like the Whammer who only beat claiming NW2 and was stepping up to allowance.He looked too slow on Beyers also, as you state.

Yes,the Whammer is supposed to be a sheet players edge but as JB may tell you, it\'s all up to individual interpretation. I used the winner and the second horse as primary and the 7 as a backup,no Whammer on a p6 ticket for a couple k.If the Whammer had won, you\'d have heard that \"howl\"about how the sheets are the best tool in the world.That happens when racetrack slow, ground loaded fast fig horses win(and they do sometimes)

Some players also knew that on 7/21 there was an a strong closers bias which the Whammer benefited from in running his big top fig, which requires downgrading,imo.Many sheet players will tell you that the Whammer bounced off the previous big top (4.3 jump up).Maybe, but me thanks the competition was far tougher and there appeared to be no pace making the race dynamics poor for the Whammer.

Lastly going in to Sundays race,the winner,Spaniard and second place horses had good work reports.

Good Luck

Mike

[moosepalm]

Perhaps you should ask whomever wrote up the TG Analysis for Del Mar\'s Sunday card because he labeled it a \"fairly evenly matched field,\" and made no mention of Whammer.  However, the horse that did receive mention, with a very tepid \"B-\" endorsement, ran last.

[siphonbobby]

I didnt use him at all because he was a such an OBV bounce candidate! Most TG and rags players are pretty decent handicappers not just blindly betting the best number. I used the 178 that race in pic 6 and keyed them in supers. To bad for me that 8 most hate his new trainer change and finished up the track.

[Dana666]

Plasticman wrote:
\"Now, if you\'re going to purchase the TG\'s and not use them, why bother purchasing them at all?\"

Interesting take. I\'m so skeptical it usually works the other way for me - T-G will give a horse a good number, and I don\'t trust the number, the horse wins, and I say to myself, \'why do I buy these things if I don\'t listen to them?\' That happens far more than your scenario.

Though I\'ve always said you need to know the horses in California, and esp. w/synthetic tracks, the numbers can be very tricky to read.

In the case of the Whammer, I know the horse as being one who doesn\'t like to pass horses and a pretty cheap individual, too. I also thought his performance on July 21 was aided by a favorable track bias, he really was on the best part of the track that day. There was a strong outside bias that day, so in that case the number is inflated to begin with and in reality it should be much slower though exactly how much slower is very hard to say.

Your point is well taken though. I think you either trust the numbers or you don\'t, but you can\'t be half way, then you wind up second guessing every move.

[nyc1347]

that kind of jump on the poly is pretty significant and Whammer was def a bounce candidate.  Also remember that with this angle your odds are so big that when a situation like it actually comes out lets say only 2 out of 15 times u are way ahead of the game if you wagered it consistently to win.

[plasticman]

Mike, Dana and others, thanks.

I had Whammer used on one or two of my tickets because even though he was outclassed a bit, i thought that he moved up at del mar, had shown gameness on the front end last year and i thought maybe his most recent win showed that he \'gets it\'. Also, with the addition of P Val, he had the chance to be lone speed. Whammer broke well and Pat just grabbed a hold and that was that. If the Whammer gets the front and gets loose, he had a shot and at the price, i was willing to use him small in the pick 6.

When the gate opened and the Spaniard walked to the front, i got a little ill. I just had in my head that Valenzuela may send Whammer to the front and at least make the Spaniard work for the win. I really liked the 1 horse in there, but for some reason he was 15 miles behind and \'erupted\' for 2nd late. I should have realized that even though the Whammer has tactical speed, the connections were going to \'rate\' him because it worked last time.

I guess i\'m just hoping that people who pay money for figs are just going to blindly use them. When i saw the Whammer\'s new top i thought, \"ok thats a fake number because of the bias, pace and whatnut and this horse is really not that good, its a fluke and he\'ll go back to his previous numbers most likely\".

I guess a lot of people knew how that number was acquired and downgraded it. There\'s really nothing you can do, as a figure maker, you have to stick that fast number in there and just hope your customers know how to \'interpret\' that number correctly.

Thanks again for the responses guys.

[TGJB]

The horse in question was off a 5 point new top. I don\'t know anyone who has used our data more than a week or ever attended a seminar who would make that horse at least 50/50 to pair up-- I made it maybe 25%, and that high only because maybe the jump was surface related. If he didn\'t pair up he had no shot, it was the only race of his life good enough to be competitive, and if he did pair up it was no gaurantee of winning, maybe 50/50. So he was one of 4 I used in the pick 6, no more than that. If I was playing the race on it\'s own I would have used him at 12-1, would not have at 6-1.