G3 Pegasus 6/19/10- Monmouth

[MonmouthGuy]

Can\'t wait to see the sheets for the Pegasus on Saturday at Monmouth.  Looks like a very good betting race.

Pegasus S. (G3)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000


Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1  1 Nacho Friend Trujillo E Breen Kelly J 117   L 9-2
2  2 Schoolyard Dreams Coa E M Ryan Derek S 117   L 5-1
3  3 Jackson Bend Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 121   L 2-1
4  4 Soaring Empire Castro E Gambolati Cam 117   L 8-1
5  5 Afleet Again Bravo J Reid Robert E Jr 123   L 4-1
6  6 Afleet Express Castellano J J Jerkens James A 117   L 5-2

[nyc1347]

Jackson Bend...  explosive getting thru his 2 yo top?  or bounce according to this years pattern?  hmmmm.. at 2 to 1 i say you can have him!

[MonmouthGuy]

Jackson Bend is the likely favorite, but will not offer much value and I think he needs to pair his top to win.

Likely second choice Afleet Express is stretching out coming off of a huge negative number and a 7 point top.  Either he is any kind, or he will bounce.

Afleet Again should run well, gets Bravo and if he can run straight looks like the value play.

Schoolyard Dreams- Pass. Fool me twice shame on me.  

Nacho Friend.  Too slow. Bravo passes on a Breen horse.

Soaring Empire.  Interesting.  Looks like now or never if he wants to move forward.

Will play Afleet Again to win/place.  Will also play an exacta w Soaring Empire underneath.  

Would be interested in hearing suggestions of how others would play a 6 horse field with the above analysis.

I guess Ibboyee is targetting the Long Branch on July 10.  Interesting that Monmouth has two G3 3YO races to fill the gap between the Belmont and Jim Dandy/Haskell weekend while the NYRA sits silent.

[MonmouthGuy]

Not terrible. I thought Afleet Again ran a pretty good race considering that his running style was compromised by the slow pace.  Getting Jackson Bend off the ticket at 4/5 was the key to cashing the race. Quit like a claimer. I hope someone here didn\'t have a large show bet!

[nyc1347]

i was clearly against JB here especially at a 2-1ML.  This was a perfect example of how pattern is the most important thing when handicapping a race along with rest off top efforts.  if this horse came from a sire that was a $5k claimer or secretariat it wouldnt have mattered bc he wouldve quit like a rat according to what he previously had shown us this year.  Give him 6 weeks off from here though and i can pretty much guarantee youll see a completely different horse.

[MonmouthGuy]

You can have him in the Haskell in 6 weeks.

[jbelfior]

Nice pick, MG.

Interesting that Afleet Again rated the way he did. The track was dead but they still went slow early. No way of knowing what one turn speed will do when stretched out.

By now no one should be shocked over any performances by a Zito 3 yo. IMO, his Haskell horse is Miner\'s Reserve.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

NYC wrote;

\"This was a perfect example of how pattern is the most important thing when handicapping a race along with rest off top efforts\"


...poor nyc. Guy needs at least 6 weeks in a Kool Aid rehab facility!

[big18741]

I\'d bet Soaring Empire back if they put blinkers on.Hopefully Gambolati can figure that out.Getting Castro off wouldn\'t hurt.

Empire Maker was similarly one paced until they changed his equipment going into the Fla Derby and he exploded.Helped to have Frankel but the blinkers were key IMO.