Monmouth Opening Day

[sekrah]

1st Race - #8 Taperrific looks the best of the ones that have already run.  #9 Chikhoot Trail is probably a must use in the exotics.   #12 Dream Waltz (15-1 ML) is appealing and another one I\'ll be using.   Ran his debut back on Sept 13th at Monmouth and that could be competitive here.  Patrick McBurney is pretty good in this spot 2nd career race spot off a layoff.  Workout log looks good.   First Time Starter sheet looks like a crapshoot.  #4 Rainbow Ridge and #7 Thelovetree would be my uses among the first time starters.

2nd Race - 2-horse race IMO between #5 Precious Package and #11 Cape Town King. Don\'t see a whole lot of value.  I do see a handful of stiffs getting their first paid $1500 workout though.   Maybe if the #11 don\'t go off too cheap, I\'ll take a shot at him at 5/2.   Bravo and the rest of the local jocks should have an edge over Gomez early in this meet.

3rd Race - GoGo/Dutrow\'s #1 El Real Madrid looks best and will have the rail with the short run into the turn as well as the potential pace setup.    I would have given #8 Jake\'s Bandaid a very good chance to pull this one off, but he figures to spot the #1 a couple of lanes into the first turn here.  

4th Race - Wide open MSW, lots could happen here but #5 Kingdom of Days stands out a little bit to me and I like him to run big off the shelf.  But it looks wide open behind him and I could imagine just about anybody else hitting the board.

5th Race - Go Go Shoot and Mr. Fantasy getting locked up in a duel for the lead seems very real here.  GGS hasn\'t shown to be a horse that runs well off the layoff.  #3 Congressional Page looks best to pick up the pieces in the stretch.

6th Race - Gomez/Dutrow strike again here on the #1 Reptillian Smarts.  Should be a perfect trip/pace scenario here for the best and most consistant horse in the race.

7th Race - Ahh, my first shot at value here.  There\'s a tough favorite but also a slew of potential bombers to wreck the toteboard.   Going to try to beat #3 Sea of Liquidity who looks very fast here and likely to hit the board.   There\'s a chance #11 Jadal and maybe #9 Chain Mover can make SOL work for the lead setting up a closer.   The pace table could be set up perfectly for #1 Narbona Pass (15-1 ML) who looks to breakthrough and set a big new top 2nd off the shelf.  He will be my key here.  Other uses:  #2 Auctoritas (15-1 ML) and #7 Merensky Reef (5-1 ML) in addition to SOL and Jadal.

8th Race - #11 Ming Dynasty looks like a good one in this spot.  Alot of the others that are just as fast are coming in off layoffs.  Maybe #3 Farragots Follies can be used as well.  Bruce Alexander does good getting his ready off the layoffs and the workout tab looks good for him.

9th Race - #3 Da Plane looks tough here at 1 mile.  He should like the cutback.  #7 Solvent has run good off layoffs in the past and is also a use here.   Something about #8 Luckiest Man I don\'t like here.    Good one last time out.  I don\'t think he\'ll like the distance and he also just shipped in from the West Coast a couple days ago.

10th Race - This is a very tough field with #2 No Shenanigans (Pletcher) and #3 Polished (Dutrow) both looking like they are ready to run a big one.  But I like #9 African Diamond.  Loads of tactical speed, can win in different ways.   Did alot of developing over the winter and looks fresh, rested and ready to run another big one here.

11th Race - I give #7 Indian Dance a better than fair chance of liking the turf.  Perfect running style for it.  #5 Get Stormy will be tough and a must use in the Pick 4\'s, but I think the value is in the 7 if he goes off anywhere near his 15-1 ML.

12th Race -  #2 Myakka City is a very fast horse but has done nothing past 5 1/2 furlongs and looks unratable.  #10 Sue The Attorney looks like she could be a good one and will be my top choice here.  Rapidly improving Closing Argument filly, her 3 races have been perfectly gapped 2 months apart.  Won for fun last time against a group not too much worse than this one.

13th Race - Wide open race here.  I\'d give #11 Harbor Ridge (20-1 ML) a look.  Not horrible outfigured here, might need to get some luck from that post though.   My key here might be #4 Wanted Alive (6-1 ML).    Could be ready to run a big one for Mark Hennig, 2nd off layoff.   Not positive he wants two turns but I think it\'s worth a shot.  #12 Next May another use in the P4.


Narbona Pass (7th), Kingdom of Days (4th) look like my best bets right now, but that could change.   Sue The Attorney (12th), African Diamond (10th), El Real Madrid (3rd), and Congressional Page (5th) also look very good but I\'ll be looking at the toteboard.


Good luck.

[kensharkey]

we need more of these postings........ty

[Silver Charm]

Agree Ken. Some pretty good races at Arington today also.

Bay to Bay in the 9th merits a chance.

[MO]

Tough card with so many horses coming in off layoffs. The only play I see here is the 10th-11th race double and your picks are nearly identical to mine. In the 10th race, I think No Shenanigans is more suited to sprinting and am willing to toss at relatively short odds. I am using Polished, mainly because I don\'t know what to make of his last race. But it\'s Dutrow, draws well and he\'s fast. The horse I really like here is your pick of African Diamond. Running 3\'s verses horses running 8s. Should win by a pole - unless Polished shows up. Will box these 2 in exactas. In the 11th I especially like Indian Dance who hasn\'t really backed up, but I really doubt we get anything more than 6-1. Will play doubles with Polished and African Diamond. Good luck.

[kensharkey]

thanks guys, app. it.

[sekrah]

4th Race.  They let the 5 go at Monmouth.  14-1 with 6 MTP.   I would of been happy with the ML.   Win bets and keys here.

[sekrah]

Nothing like a riderless horse forcing yours to check on the turn.

[number5858]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nothing like a riderless horse forcing yours to
> check on the turn.


and in good position, and the pace hadn\'t been too fast. Not often you get Joe B. at 15-1.