Good Job By Both Products/Gurus

[The Kid]

I had both sets of Derby sheets and read the analysis by booth TGJB and Robspierre and I actually would call it a dead heat.

Naturally Robes\' opinions were mushy as hell, but if you tossed his weak endorsment of Supah Blitz, he gave you the Deby tri in a 4-horse box. But he didn\'t like the race, wageringwise.

TGJB\'s churlishness on the SoCal numbers earned a big demerit when the results seemed to confirm the weakness of the SA Derby. But he did well on Funny Cide (BTW, I grew up three doors down in Delmar, N.Y. from syndicate member Gus Williams, a beer-drinking retired contractor) and Peace Rules. He seemed more negative on Empire Maker than Robes but at least added the VERY good comment about Jerry riding him like he was the superior animal.

I personally have no regrets on the Derby itself. I had the tri and the exacta, fairly lightly, but, following TGJB\'s advice, was spread for a great result if EM ran out. (Cide was one of my keys) A second for Peace Rules or a better trip for Atswhat and I would have had a nice score.

Alas, I would have really been poised for a great score had I spread every so slightly more in the Early Times; when devising my pick-4s, I fell back into \"old-think\" on the winner -- bad post, first time in a Grade 1, simply can\'t win....woulda, shoulda coulda...

Anyway, I will concentrate next year on Derby Pick 3s and pick 4s because it\'s (generally) so much easier to eliminate those who CAN\'T win that to sort out your 2nd and 3rd place horses.

[TGJB]

The two horses out of the SA Derby-- Indian Express had a world of trouble, BG came out of the race with a chip that will be taken out later this week.

The test of those SoCal numbers came before the Derby was even run-- as I said in my post, all anyone had to do was look at all the numbers for all the 3yo\'s who came out of there to see for themselves how ridiculous the sprint/route relationship was on Ragozin. My \"churlishness\" had nothing to do with it, and those who paid attention looked at Santa Catarina differently in the Oaks. If you have Ragozin\'s Derby sheets, you probably have his Oaks sheets-- look at her sheet, and compare it to ours, found in the seminar available here now.

[The Kid]

Well, without trying to get into a snarky exchange with TGJB, I only would say that while I do not have the analytical capacity to get into an exchange over the accuracy of the two products\' numbers, save to suggest that a fluky fast downhill sprint turf # doesn\'t seem as though the best figure to make comparisons with route figures, plenty of posters on this board have used less evidence to make their point.

I do not have the sheets for the Oaks, though on another subject, I am hopeful of buying Gus a beer on Black-Eyed Susan day. Actuially, he should buy me won; the Albany paper reports he had $200 on FC at 150/1 in Vegas and went back for more several times at lower odds.

Anyway, I did appreciate TGJB\'s analysis more than Robes\'for the Derby, tho\' I continue to harbor doubts about the capacity of anyone to produce super-accurate figures -- IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES -- and so, as I search for the Holy Grail, I keep returning to trips, trips, trips...

[TGJB]

My guess is that you do have the analytical capacity, but not the data or experience to discuss figure making questions. The process has been \"mystified\" (as opposed to de-mystified) over the years, intentionally in one case. It helps to be smart (and more importantly, logical), but it\'s mostly about doing a lot of work, gathering a lot of data, spending a lot of money to do so, and getting a lot of experience.

Having said that, and trying very hard not to be snarky, it\'s also about common sense. While no one is saying that a horse who ran well in a turf sprint necessarily can handle a dirt route, Buddy Gil did win the San Felipe and SA Derby. Does anyone really believe that his effort in the grass race, which he won by two, was good enough to win those major stakes by six? As for the figure being fluky-- if it wasn\'t solid, Friedman could have left a box. But it WAS solid, given the data he was dealing with-- which caused me to look at why, and see it was part of a much bigger problem. The Buddy Gil example was just one of many I cited in my long post, and it probably would be a good idea for everyone to take a look at it, calmly and logically.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?f=1&i=5903&t=5903

[alm]

I agree with you, but with a slightly different perspective.

Running turf sprints down the hill at SA is not like running turf sprints anywhere else.  I\'ve spoken to trainers out here, good ones, who feel that it takes a lot more athleticism on the horse\'s part to run this course.

I don\'t know how this affects the speed figures, but Buddy Gil is a very special horse to be able to win under these varied conditions.