Thought on Ice Box for Bel Stakes

[nyc1347]

The way I see this years derby is that we can make an excuse for some horses for the way the derby played out such as LAL and Jackson Bend.  And others we cannot such as Paddy o Prado and Super Saver.  As the 1st and 3rd place finishers didnt fire next time out and bounced I think it may be significant to look at the same situation with Ice box.

Ice box had plenty of rest going into the Derby.  With such a big jump in the FL Derby I wasnt high on him running a new top of sorts based on pattern because he had such a huge jump already.  He wound up almost running a top effort though BUT the key is that with 6 weeks off he still regressed.  The question is do we take this as an really good sign that he was able to run a troubled race and almost get to a top and will run better with better conditions?  OR as Paddy and SS did expect him to bounce going to 12F in the Belmont?

He does have a different angle with IB then SS and POP as he regressed slightly rather than running a new top like they both did.  So question..  do you think he will go forward with 12 weeks off from his best effort?  continue to go backwards and react as POP and SS did? or Run a new top effort in the belmont that surpasses the 1 effort?

My opinion is going to a new top effort!  The horse is perfectly in line with his top effort last out.  Ran in crappy conditions but didnt fully exert himself.  has another 5 weeks off and seems to have the best chance to run better than many of these in the race and will a lot in the tank.   Fly Down who just ran a new top will have to recover from a top effort and I cant see him running any better than he did that day.  THAT effort is good enough to do great but I will expect a regression of sorts.. and a backwards move in the Belmont not going to win.  

Theres not much to beat in the field and even though IB will not offer that great value I think he is the horse to beat for many reasons in the race.  There are more reasons for others to run worse imo then there is for IB to run great. Any thoughts?

[mjellish]

Could be.  But 1 1/2 is a whole different ballgame.  I know you and I differ on our take on distance.  This guy is bred to do ok at the distance, better than some of the others that will be in the race.  He\'s probably going to need to be closer early and in my opinion he\'s likely to lose some of his late kick going 1 1/2.  Got to wait to see how the race shapes up pace wise to pick a horse like him, IMO.

[Silver Charm]

I doubt there will be a lot of what we usually call PACE in the Belmont. I mean I may be wrong but if anything if IB is the proverbial horse-to-beat then the pace will be slow.

We have seen as many Commendables and the Zito recent wire job in here as some sort of last to first type.

IB will be a player like Mine That Bird was. Speaking of which I got a text that he is now in the golden hands of D. Wayne. True??

[nyc1347]

? for you mj..  i take the numbers for what they are and move on from that point..  if you say he will lose \"closing kick\" going that far wouldnt your opinion be consistent for a horse to be on the lead and lose \"gas in the tank\" for going further?  i take both as equals which then comes down to the numbers they run after everything anyway.. why isnt this consistent with you?

[nyc1347]

thought about this a little more..to add another question MJ...  Ice box, being known as a LATE closer, wouldnt your opinion be more consistent with Fly Down who will be making that move earlier than ice box?  DOnt you think its more likely for Fly Down to lose gas making an earlier move than it is for IB coming down that stretch behind FD?  IB realistically SHOULD have more gas than Fly Down running slower fractions earlier based on what ur saying correct?

[Silver Charm]

I totally do not agree but will let Jellish debate this one with you. These front running stretch out types are better off gradually stealing away as they start rounding the far turn and holding on than saving saving and saving more energy until mid stretch before trying to open up.

Pat Day could do this but even when he rode Ladys Secret in the BC Distaff (back when it was a 1 1/4) opened her up by 5+ as they rounded the turn.

Speed Kills when used properly

[nyc1347]

Thats the point though Silver.. we cant assume that a race will go too fast or too slow.. a horse who is going to run his TOP effort will run that as much as a horse who will BOUNCE will run bad no matter the distance. correct?  when you say speed kills then wouldnt closing late do the same?  Its all relative!

[Silver Charm]

The Speed Horse controls the race. He controls the level of energy required by the others to maintain their position.

This is why in a match race the pace setter has the clear advantage.

If the pacestter in the Belmont goes out a half in 52 IB may be toast right then and there. Even if he is sitting only 5 off. He will have no stretch kick left (which is an optical illusion anyway) when the others begin to kick on.

End of debate

[jbelfior]

Could not agree more.

I may not have the winner that day but I can tell you the winner will not be Ice Box. Not easy running a mile and a half without changing leads for the final eight.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[mjellish]

Go back and read the charts from the Belmont for the past 20-30 years.  The results will speak for themselves.  When they have to go 1 1/2, usually all the horses are gassed to some point.  This seems to hurt the closers more.  Tactical speed is a huge asset at 1 1/2.  You don\'t have to be a front runner, but not many win from the back of the pack.  Being able to relax for the first mile is a must.  Look at what DaTara did a couple years ago.  Seems to me the trick is to be close to the front by midway on the term but not to move too soon.  There\'s nothing inconsistent with my thinking here.  When they all come home in 26 or so there\'s just not much passing going on.

[nyc1347]

I understand what you are saying BUT in this situation im saying that IB imo should run a new top effort which means he is going to run faster than he has ever done.  Unless a horse is out there in pedistrian fractions which i doubt he should be there with no problem.  I cant assume a race is going to be run a certain way unless theres a good reason such as this years derby with so many speed balls.  Theres nothing pointing to any of that in the belmont stakes so im entering the race with a set opinion on IB being able to overcome whatever pace  is set to be a huge contender in the race.

[kensharkey]

if u think about all the math that goes into a race it will drive you nuts. if im going to run a mile in 4 minutes today, what does it matter what every other horse will run to affect my 4 minutes?