Ywanna Twist will go into the Preakness as the fastest TG horse

covelj70 · May 08, 2010, 12:25:58 PM

Durtrow confirmed the horse will run in the Preakness.

Will probably go off at long odds and many will dismiss because everything but the TG came up slow for the Illinois Derby and American Lion didn\'t run well in the Derby but I think this horse is live off the big number with nice spacing.

Edgar will ride him.

Also, this would be a real chaff for me if he ran huge and won because I had him at 225-1 in the Derby futures so if we go by the rule of what usually happens is what will cause the most pain for the most people (most as in me in this case), that makes this horse even more live....lol

FrankD. · May 08, 2010, 03:51:25 PM

Let\'s hope Edgar gives him a better ride than he did on Academy Road yesterday !!!

jimbo66 · May 08, 2010, 04:37:26 PM

Covelj,

From what I have seen, TGJB is \"out on a limb\" with his Illinois Derby figure. Rags has the race over 3 points slower (adjusted for scale) and Beyer also has it slower.

American Lion\'s derby race didn\'t inspire confidence in the Illinois figure.

And with the way Awesome Act has run his last two races, the 2nd to Awesome Act isn\'t exactly inspiring confidence in Yawanna Twist either.

That said, if you are right, you will get your price.

At this point in his career, having Edgar on your horse\'s back is NOT a positive. He has lost it VERY FAST the last 24 months.

covelj70 · May 08, 2010, 06:26:39 PM

Jimbo,

Is it just me or is this preakness shaping up as one of the best betting races in recent memory. If there are 14 horses, seems like 10 of them are live?

can\'t wait to see how this field shapes up.

big18741 · May 08, 2010, 06:31:29 PM

What\'s with Yawanna\'s last work?

1:17 and change for 6f\'s? Bore out at Hawthorne and nothing in the way of a real work since.Was that a knockout race?

I do see the work Derby week at CD and the week before at Keeneland.Obviously this is not a horse that works fast,but 1:17?

jimbo66 · May 08, 2010, 08:39:18 PM

Covelj,

I would agree with you that the Preakness looks very interesting. It is a tough call on Super Saver though. He didn\'t run much of a new top and if you don\'t think the wet track moved him up and rather he is just maturing and getting good at the right time, he is a fairly priced 2-1ish favorite.

I am a little interested in the horse you posted about last week, Schoolyard Dreams. I wanted Ramon to ride him back though. With Ramon leaving for First Dude, I have to take a closer look at that one. (don\'t remember his sheet at all).

Baffert switching jockeys reeks of desperation, which I am surprised at. My gut reaction after the Derby was that Lookin at Lucky was the horse to beat on a dry track at Pimlico. Baffert got a number of his horses to run in the Preakness over the years, but last year Pioneer of the Nile was absolutely disgusting in that race. (and as my \"key\", I would be hardpressed to go with Baffert again!!!)

pj · May 08, 2010, 11:48:37 PM

Gentlemen,

I am by far a genious here. Mostly, I listen. Additionlly, I have moved to Bangkok, Thailand last week, so my \"active\" betting days are somewhat limited.

But I noticed something about American Lion (who I bet on heavily in the Derby) in the post parade at Churchill. I might be wrong, but he his a huge animal by sight. Generally, this type of horse has a difficult time handling a sloppy track.

Now I\'m not making excuses, but I still give credit to his number.

Hopefully, I\'ll be able to bet him again in the Preakness.

Best regards,

pat

covelj70 · May 09, 2010, 04:22:14 AM

Pat,

You are right

American Lion is a very big beast.

He\'s bred for the wet but didn\'t handle it well either in his final breeze before the Derby or in the Derby itself...or maybe he\'s not good enough...tough call.

I don\'t think AL is set to run back in the Preakness.

Maybe Harty does with him what he did with Col JOhn and brings him back to win the travers!

pj · May 09, 2010, 03:24:25 PM

Thanks for the insight Jim ! BTW, I meant to say \"I am by far NOT a genious\"

SteveB · May 12, 2010, 12:43:12 PM

Cherokee Run and Oliver\'s Twist both ran second beaten only about a half length each in the Preakness. With those in his breeding line, there may be a good chance Yawanna Twist will take to Pimlico. YT didn\'t make it to the Derby mostly due to only having only four lifetime starts with two seconds in G3 races which were his only starts in graded stakes. I would think the Preakness would be his best chance to have a big impact on a Triple Crown race.