Garrett Gomez

[alm]

See my post above on his Triple Crown call...big hair, small hat.

[Leamas57]

And he\'s no pig either!

Leamas

[APny]

MO,

If you use sheets and are not taking into account that synthetic numbers are almost always slower than dirt numbers then you need to start.  You think it\'s just a fluke that LAL\'s only dirt number other than the KD is signifigantly faster?  You cannot compare the two as if they are the same.  Thats why Caracortado is a big guess this weekend.  Nobody....i mean Nobody knows for sure what kind of number he\'ll run first time dirt.

[MO]

I do understand that synth figs are slower than dirt figs, that they are closer to turf figs. BUT, TG has that sire profile feature which says that LAL\'s sire (as Sydney\'s Candy\'s sire) preferred or at least ran faster on synth.

I also understand the stats provided by Jerry regarding the \"one and you\'re done\" angle, a profile that suits LAL. The whole synth thing is still evolving for sure, and I am certainly open to schooling from anyone knowledgeable on this subject (or others) posting here, but I think there is now enough data available to make reasonable conclusions based on past performance.

Taking into account LAL\'s troubled trip in the Derby, we all have to make a judgement call on how many lengths he lost and how much faster/better he may have run. Based on his Santa Anita Derby, his KY Derby looks like an improved effort.But was it?

 If I were handicapping him in any other race and his name was Bay Colt, I would give him credit for losing 3-4 lengths because of the trouble. That means he still gets beat by 3-4 in the Derby. This justifies (to me) my interpretation of the horse\'s ability. He\'s not going to run any faster than a 3 in the Derby and he didn\'t. And if he runs faster than a 3 in the Preakness, it won\'t be a jump back to the 0 in the Rebel, but more likely a 2. Maybe a 1, which won\'t be good enough to win. And at short odds in all 3 slots facing a faster horse who will be the favorite and likely winner, all the guessing and hoping that LAL will return to his Rebel will be at great risk for very little return other than bragging rights. Like I said earlier, you have to take a stand to make money and when LAL pairs his Rebel and then pairs that figure next out (back to back 0\'s), then we\'ll talk about him being a fast horse. He\'s a May foal and has room to develope, but not on 2 weeks rest.

[MO]

BTW, those 3\'s LAL ran were 3 3/4. What if LAL\'s line ran like this:
 
7,6,6,6,4,6,0,5,4???

Wouldn\'t that make the Rebel look like a fluke?

[MO]

Based on his sire profile he should be no faster on dirt. Based on his pattern, he has to get back to the 3 first, and that won\'t be fast enough to hit the board.

[richiebee]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
He\'s a May foal and has room to develop, but not on 2 weeks rest.



MO:

I agree with most of your analysis, but given LAL\'s success as a 2YO
I do not think the late foal date is a factor here.

[MO]

appreciated.

[Silver Charm]

Brutal week and Preaknees for this guy. Gets essentially not invited back on Lucky. Goes to Dunlin who draws brutal then takes a righthand turn from the gate.

With Belmont coming up his phone might resemble Maytag Repairman. He did pickup Blame and with LAL winning he picked up Blame.......

[Leamas57]

I know he picked up blame but what horse did he ride?

Leamas