Derby 136 by Sekrah

[sekrah]

Going to aggressively attack the Derby with some big trifecta tickets.  I am carry 3 tiers on my trifecta tickets.  

Ticket A:  Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 2,3
Ticket B:  Tier 2 - Tier 1 - Tier 2,3
Ticket C:  Tier 2 - Tier 2,3 - Tier 1


#1 Looking At Lucky - Tier 2.  Absolutely must use IMO.  6 wins in 8, training like a beast.  Gritty with lots of heart.  I\'m very confident he can get the distance.

#2 Ice Box - Tier 2.  Was considering this a tier one horse until the track turned up sloppy.  All of the closers are looking pretty dicey right now

#3 Noble\'s Promise - Tier 3.  Moved up into tier 3 with the sloppy track.  Should love it

#4 Super Saver - Tier 1.  My kingpin.  Very good chance of 1w1w as Calvin has pulled it off the last 3 years with SS, DoC, and MTB.  

#5 Line Of David - Toss.  Not training well, bounce likely off the gutty Ark Derby effort.

#6 Stately Victor - Tier 3.  Was considering Tier 2 on a fast track, but he gets bumped down as the closers may be compromised.  

#7 American Lion - Tier 3.  I just can\'t get myself to like this horse a whole lot, had a very easy go of it in the Illinois Derby over an unimpressive field but top TG # must be used here somwhere.

#8 Dean\'s Kitten - Toss.  Hasn\'t hit the board against anything decent.  Turfer.  Don\'t see him skating across a super sloppy track.

#9 Make Music For Me - Toss.  1 win over nobodoy.  Has done nothing over 1 mile to warrant hitting the board here.

#10 Paddy O\'Prado - Tier 2.  Not completely sold on his ability to get 1 1/4, but the slop should help his speed and he\'s training very well.

#11 Devil May Care - Tier 3.  Horse has had gate problems in the past and will be in the first pair going in.  Nice looking filly.  Not convinced she\'ll love the slop though and running style could create a very wide trip.  Still using lightly.

#12 Conveyance - Tier 2.  Been quiet on him all week.  Remember, he tired in the Sunland Derby, but that was at 3700 ft. *wink*  This horse has the fastest top-end speed in the race and there\'s a real chance IMO that the expected hot pace collapses and this one gets out alone on the slop.

#13 Jackson Bend - Toss.  I really hate this horse and hate his chances of getting 1 1/4.  Hasn\'t impressed me.

#14 Mission Impazible - Toss.  Perhaps the worst route jockey in the field in Maragh.  Don\'t think he can get the distance and don\'t think he has the tactical speed to get position and avoid a wide trip.

#15 Discreetly Mine - Tier 3.  I think this guy can get a piece.   Never finished worse than 4th.  Has the speed to be near the front and take advantage of the track

#16 Awesome Act - Toss.  Not the race to come out rank. LeParoux is another one I don\'t trust in routes.  Wide trip

#17 Dublin - Toss.  Easily spooked and now facing a big crowd, rough weather, and 19 other horses?  Pass.

#18 Backtalk - Double Toss.  Horse has absolutely no business in this field.

#19 Homeboykris - Toss.  Couldn\'t give him a Double Toss.  Horse has shown some talent at a mile in the Champagne and has some top-end speed.

#20 Sidney\'s Candy - Tier 3.   Moved down with the post position from Tier 2.    Don\'t trust Joe Talamo to keep his cool in this spot either.  


Super Saver
w/
LAL, IceBox, PoP, Convey
w/
NobleP, StatelyV, AmerLion, DMC, DiscMine, Sidney

Ticket A:  Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 2,3
Ticket B:  Tier 2 - Tier 1 - Tier 2,3  
Ticket C:  Tier 2 - Tier 2,3 - Tier 1

$4 Trifectas with the 3 tickets described at the beginning.   $144 per ticket x3 = $432.

$20 exacta box key SS with those 10.  $400.



One Bonus Spot Play Elsewhere in America:   Tampa Bay 6th Race, 2:49pm ET.   #2 Purely Perfect (8-1 ML) and #9 Concert Quest (15-1 ML).  Going to aggressively attack this race wheeling those 2 around in the exotics.  Love the chances of both hitting the board.

[sekrah]

One Bonus Spot Play Elsewhere in America: Tampa Bay 6th Race, 2:49pm ET. #2 Purely Perfect (8-1 ML) and #9 Concert Quest (15-1 ML). Going to aggressively attack this race wheeling those 2 around in the exotics. Love the chances of both hitting the board.

I\'m as proud of this one as my Derby play and hope a few others tagged along as well.  Cashed some very large tickets in that race as well as the Derby and even took a $16 horse from Penn National before I split.  Anyway, I had a very good day today at Penn National Race Course.  

Didn\'t mean to be rude and rub people the wrong way this week.  I just felt very strongly about this horse, very strongly about the position Calvin would put him in to win, and I went a little further than I probably should have in defending him.  This was by far the most fascinating Kentucky Derby field I\'ve ever handicapped..

[P-Dub]

Sekrah,

Many people doubted your selection, congrats on sticking to your guns and cashing nicely today.  You have the right to crow a bit, many doubted your selection. Great job.

[moosepalm]

Congratulations, Sekrah.  That was a righteous call.  I never differed with your feelings about SS, but, we did tussle a bit over the value of the #1 post, and nothing I saw yesterday suggested that it doesn\'t have its potential downside.

Good luck going forward.

[Lost Cause]

Here is a story for you Sekrah..
I read your Tampa BAy picks yesterday morning before going to the OTB.  I wrote down the 2,9 and race #6 and put it in my back pocket..
During the day I looked up and saw that that race had 16 minutes to post..So I walk over to the phone in the OTB (Cell phone does not get good reception in there).  I called up the online site I use to play and he tells me I have $9 in the account ( it was that kind of day for me) so I ask to make a deposit..between the transferring and the  debit card deposit, time passes I finally get back the agent start calling in my bet and of course he tells me the race is closed ( I can\'t see that because the phone is away from the TV monitors)..I start walking back to my chair and see the camera on the 2 after the race has been run..I think here we go again..and of course they show the order of finish and I say to myself..(well I can\'t write down what I was calling myself)..after tallying up what I was going to play..I would have made about $2k in the race..not abd for a race I didn\'t have to do any work on..

Thank for yet another horseracing story Sekrah..
Good job all around yesterday..

[sekrah]

Brutal LC.  I feel for you after reading that.  You shoulda played the $4 ex box while you were waiting to put your CC info in, Haha.

Tough one.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Brutal LC.  I feel for you after reading that.
> You shoulda played the $4 ex box while you were
> waiting to put your CC info in, Haha.
>
> Tough one.


That would have made too much sense...