Super Saver weight carried

[sekrah]

Super Saver carried 122 in the Arkansas Derby.  Line of David, 118.    
Super Saver carried 122 in the Tampa Bay Derby.  Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams both carried 116.  

Those combined 10 pounds are why this horse will be going off at 15-1 on Saturday, instead of 4-1 with a 3-race win streak and 6-4-1-0 record with another $560,000 in winnings.

Chew on that for a little bit.

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

Super Saver, IMO, will either move forward to a new top which will probably get him the roses, or bounce to a level where he\'s a non-factor. I don\'t think he will run the same number he ran at Tampa or Oaklawn.

His price with 10 minutes to post determines if he is a good bet or not. The rest is not important. Most of us realize he\'s a major player in here.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

Not all of us!!  Some of us, think he is absolute toss, unless the track comes up sloppy.......

[mjellish]

Obviously the draw helped this guy the most.  He\'s trained very well.  With a wet track and Borel  he may hang on for a piece of this.  But in my opinion he is going to be an underlay.  I just can\'t endorse him as anything better than a marginal contender to hit the board.  I still can\'t get over how he couldn\'t pass LOD in the Ark Derby.  But he has a great looking sheet and I can understand why people like him.

[TGJB]

MJ and Jimbo-- maybe SS couldn\'t get past LOD because he was only running a 2 1/4 that day...?

[mjellish]

Maybe.  Got to take a stand somewhere though and I\'m going to trust my eyes.  If he wouldn\'t have drawn so well, got Calvin and most likely a wet track he would have been a toss for me.

[TGJB]

My comment means strictly that, as I used to say on Post Time, that was then, and this is now. We put them on a graph for a reason.

[mjellish]

Jerry, trust me.  You do not have to tell me about form cycles or patterns.  I get it.  My belief is that SS was fully cranked for the ARK Derby, which was a 1,000,000 race.  I believe if SS was going anywhere he would have done it then.  He didn\'t. Pletcher has been firing second off all year, and at that time he had ESK as well.  He\'s never took the true prep, Naftzger approach before and I don\'t think he did it with SS.   There is enough early speed in here to ensure SS doesn\'t get out front in soft fractions, and I think the 1 1/4 is going to get him and that\'s that.  So for me, his pattern is irrelevant.  I may even toss him altogether if speed and or rail isn\'t sticking.

But I could be wrong.  To each his own.

[sekrah]

#1.  Calvin isn\'t sending Super Saver to the front.
#2.  He came home in 12.3 after 1:36.2 mile.   How much faster did you want him


Geared up for the Arkansas Derby?   If you think Todd Pletcher is going to wreck his horse in the Arkansas Derby when he\'s got this dark 0-for-24 Derby cloud over his head, then I\'ll have what your drinking.

I\'m sorry, but a statement of \"I believe if SS was going anywhere he would have done it then.\" is pretty darn arrogant when you consider all the variables and randomness in this sport.   You have no idea if he was geared up.  You have no idea if he liked the track.  And to top it off, he would of won the freaking race if him and Line of David were carrying the same weight.  

url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias]Survivorship Bias anyone?[/url]

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I\'m sorry, but a statement of \"I believe if SS was
> going anywhere he would have done it then.\" is
> pretty darn arrogant when you consider all the
> variables and randomness in this sport.   You have
> no idea if he was geared up.  You have no idea if
> he liked the track.  And to top it off, he would
> of won the freaking race if him and Line of David
> were carrying the same weight.  

Wow, you saying someone\'s statement is arrogant.

Pot, meet kettle. I guess nobody can have an opinion around here but you.

BTW, you have no idea that SS wins if he carries the same weight. Theoretically yes, but that doesn\'t mean it would have happened.

We know you love SS, but settle down a bit. Its not like the guy just kicked your dog, he was just giving his opinion.

[mjellish]

Sek,  

You have no idea what I know about this horse and what I don\'t.  I will guarantee 1000 percent that I have more inside info about this horse than u do, and I can guarantee you this horse was fully cranked for the Ark derby.  They started with him late this year due to an issue which I am not going to divulge to this board.  But they were thinking win in ARK and the horse was fully cranked.

What is actually arrogant is your post because it is based on pure conjecture.  No bloodstock agent info, no owner info.  Nothing.  And u assume the same for me.

Look.  Here\'s the deal.  No one can say if he \"liked\" the track or not.  I can tell u this.  The horse is doing as well as they have ever had him.  There are questions about his getting the distance, not just from me, but you never know for sure until you run them.  He has a shot. I can\'t tell you or anyone else not to like him.  I simply said how I felt, and that is what I am going with.

[jimbo66]

Maybe JB,

Or maybe he can\'t pass horses?  And maybe he isn\'t likely to run better than 2 1/4 Saturday and if the track stays dry, I think he runs much worse than that.  

The dynamics of the race matter TGJB. It is more than just me I believe that use the TG figs as one of the tools to handicap, but there are still other factors besides the pattern.  Put Super Saver\'s pattern on a horse that will be mid-pack, has shown they can rate and pass horses, and he would be a helluva lot more interesting to me.  

As I posted about 6 weeks ago on this board, Rule and Super Saver would be the \"High Limit\'s\" of 2010. (you would have liked Rule if he was in the race, correct?)

We will see in about 48 hours if the Super Saver \"detractors\" were right......