Eskendereya's Work is Cancelled

[Silver Charm]

Pushed back until tomorrow.

You have to wonder what is going on with this horse as people like Mike Welsh have even questioned his energy level.

[nyc1347]

Id give you another day off too if I knew you were capable of running a Negative 3 or better next weekend.  =)

[Silver Charm]

They probably would prefer another couple of weeks off. But that isnt how this works.

At 2-1 in a 20 horse field with an expected wide trip Esky looks like a......

[MO]

When you are talking about evenly matched horses, yes. Any horse who has a 2 second edge over ALL his rivals in his final 5f of consecutive 9f races is in a class by himself. He can afford to break from post 20 and be 5 wide on both turns and still win by 2. The only way to beat this horse is to cover him up and never let him run, or something unforseen happens like an injury during the race, or the jock falls off. Clean trip, the rest are all running for 2nd money.

[Silver Charm]

I am sure a trainer who is 0-26 in this race can come up with more ways than that to get the horse beat.

Like second guessing his own conditioning plan the week of the race for starters......

[mjellish]

I dunno.  It would be one thing if the track was fast, sun was shinging and the move got put back.  I don\'t read anything into this given the circumstances.

[jimbo66]

Keep grasping at straws guys.  

The track is a sea of slop, so they pushed the work.

You want to attribute that to the horse not feeling well, not having energy, needing an extra day to recover from the Wood, etc.etc.etc.

Good luck with that.

Sounds like conspiracy theory to me......

[sekrah]

So every other horse in the Derby would of finished 1 1/8 at Aqueduct in 1:52 or slower on April 3rd?    I\'m sorry, I\'m having a hard time swallowing that a burned out Jackson Bend and a rank Awesome Act represent the next best horses in this field.

[MO]

I did not say that.

This is where pace and performance figures enter the picture.

Last 5f from 9f prep:

SC - 59 2/5 lone speed unchallanged invariably wins (set very slow pace on poly) TG 3 1/4

Endor - 100 flat stalking slow pace  TG 2 3/4

LAL -100 2/5 troubled trip  TG 5 1/2

IB - 100 2/5 hot pace, race fell apart  TG 1 1/2

Esky 100 3/5 both races at 9f (overcame slow pace in Wood) TG 0  TG NEG 3 1/2

Convey  101 flat setting slow pace  TG  5 1/2

AA  101 3/5 troubled trip  TG 2 1/4  

JB - 102 2/5 SUSTAINED SPEED throughout  TG 2

SS - 102 3/5 SUSTAINED SPEED throughout  TG 2 1/4  HAS A WIN AT CD - HUGE EDGE

Dublin  102 2/5 chased lone speed(s)  TG 1 1/4

MI - NP -  102 3/5

LOD -  103 flat - lone speed unchallanged invariably wins

Rule  103 flat - quit after hot pace

The race comes down to 3 horses: Esky - the fastest horse; Super Saver the sustained speed most likely to wire the field if unchallanged and most likely to withstand a hot pace for a share; and Dublin - if he really does like this track.