Horses that ran a negative fig in the final derby prep

[covelj70]

I went back again through the archives and since 2001 there have been 19 horses that ran a negative number in their final derby prep.

4 out of those 19 paired or moved forward in the Derby or 21%.

I was surprised it was this high. Small sample size but still more than I thought

I was looking for an angle to play against Esk and I thought maybe Big Brown was an anomoly but Smarty, Curlin and Circular Quay all paired as well even though the later 2 didn\'t win.

[moosepalm]

Thank you for that research.  This prompts other questions for me.  Of the fifteen who didn\'t pair or move forward, how many were \"off\" and how many were \"X?\"  Given the 1 in 5 mathematical (and, only mathematical) probability of the horse pairing or moving forward, how much can it regress and still win?  The answer to that, of course, is dependent on the probability of one, or more, of the remaining nineteen Derby horses moving forward to equal or surpass Esky\'s possible regression.  Obviously, in projecting those probabilities one must weigh in racing style, pre-race form via work-outs, pedigree, and the myriad of other variables which are not quantifiable, and make this such a delightfully maddening game.  Even at the outset, the approximate one in five historical trend of pairing or improving, is still independent of other factors related to the commonality or dissimilarity of Esky to his negative-figure predecessors.  Is he more Big Brown or big bounce?  In no other race does it seem that we are presented with such a tantalizing array of information, yet left with so many unanswered questions.

[richiebee]

I believe 3 of your 19 were TAP entries...

Bandini, Keyed Entry, Circular Quay

[MonmouthGuy]

Brother Derek also moved forward into negative territory off a 0.