ok, I did a little homework on Pletcher's figures in the derby

[covelj70]

I went through the Derby archives going back to 2002 (very cool that TG keeps this info available).

Pletcher has had 18 starters in that time.

10 have run an X
2 have been off
6 have paired or moved forward

So, the first thing to note is that for all of the noise that is made about how bad Pletcher\'s record in the derby, he is essentially right in line with the averages.

12 out of 18 Pletcher runners since 2002 have been off or X and that\'s 67% compared to the 68% that JB showed in last year\'s seminar are off or X in the Derby historically.  Pletcher has a few more X\'s and a few less off\'s than the average but when taken together, his horses don\'t run any more bad races in the Derby than the others.

He has had 6 pair or tops (really 5 pairs and 1 top) which is 33% compared to the historical averages Jerry offered of 33%.  Also good to note everyone\'s math ties...lol

So, what\'s all of the fuss about Pletcher and the Derby?

I have all of the backup data broken out if anyone wants to go into more detail about it and there\'s some interesting stuff that I noted such as a few of his X\'s being from horses that were on 2 weeks rest coming into the Derby or by sires that have no chance of getting a horse to go 1 1/4 (Carson City, etc) or from horses that had classic bounce patterns going in (Bandini) but I believe that\'s the case for other trainers as well and one of the reasons that the Derby has so many X\'s in general.

Maybe the most interesting thing to note for me was that the last time Pletcher came into the Derby \"loaded\" was 2007 and 3 out of his 5 horses paired or topped that year.  They all got terrible trips in some cases due to bad posts (Any Given Sat. got a buried .5 that year) but they ran their races.  Scat Daddy didn\'t run his race but he had bad feet going in that year and wasn\'t bred to run that far anyway.

So, we can debate alot of stuff about Pletchers horses going into the Derby (i.e. does Super Saver really want 1 1/4, etc) this year but I don\'t think it\'s fair to question whether he has a bad Derby record b/c of tighter drug testing, etc.  The historical data doesn\'t back that view up.

Gonna be a fun 2 weeks.

[jbelfior]

Now if he can only get the better horses to pair or improve and not regress as oppose to getting his 5\'s to improve to 3, then he\'s got his first Derby winner.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Beginner]

Wow!  Nice work - and thanks!  I\'m guessing from your day job that you have the backup info spread in Excel (I always hated the F9 key).  Anyway, if it\'s part of your backup data, it would be great to know of the 6 who paired or moved forward, which preps they came out of.  No worries if you don\'t have that, I can certainly do the work - and thanks again!

[covelj70]

Joe B,

That\'s just it.  Any Given Sat paired running a .05 buried and Circulay Quay paired a 1 and Bluegrass Cat paired a 1.  His better horses are just as likely to pair as the others.