Two Californians Who Have Fallen From Grace

[richiebee]

The first Californian I refer to is one Eldrick \"Tiger\" Woods, whose return from
sex addiction therapy at The Masters this weekend will give that tournament (and
CBS) record viewership, the kind of spotlight Racing will only get if there is
the possibility of a Triple Crown winner. Actually some on this Board have
already mentioned the Triple Crown as more of a probability than a possibility
this year, but more on that later.

Back to Tiger. I have disrespected this man as a golfer long before I disrespected
him for violating one of the primary Don Corleone rules, that \"A man who doesn\'t
spend time with his family can never be a real man.\"

For all of his considerable talent, Tiger\'s temper tantrums on the course are
tolerated where they shouldn\'t be, because it assures that future generations of
young golfers will think that such behavior is acceptable, where clearly it is
not.

Tiger has many times in the past stopped in mid- swing (either backswing or
downswing) upon hearing the slightest noise, usually the click of the shutter on
a camera.

Hey Tiger, man up. I remember playing in a foursome where during my backswing on
a difficult drive I heard the ripping noise of 2 beer can pull tops and the sound
of the third member of the foursome on the cell phone chatting up his boss\'
daughter. I do not mean to use the noise as an excuse for hitting a Lou Gehrig--
a \"dead yank\" -- off the tee, but how are you going to cope the first time you
play a tournament in the NY metro area and you are being serenaded by drunken
gallery members singing Rick James\' \"Superfreak\" or Donna Summers\' \"Bad Girls\"?

[Oh right this is the Thorograph board]. The other Californian who has fallen
from grace,precipitously and probably through no fault of his own, is Lookin at
Lucky. The two year old champion colt,after one bad trip (which apparently the
trainer is now calling a bad ride) is being dismissed by many on this board whose
opinion I have a lot of respect for. In the last 36 or so hours I have read that
some are looking forward to the prospect of betting against this colt, that
others will be looking to use him at best to fill out the superfecta, that there
is the possibility that he will stand in the Derby gate at double digit odds.
Still others have mentioned that he did not make the same physical appearance at
Santa Anita that he did at Oaklawn for the Rebel or even during the 2YO campaign.
Others have called him a \"grinder\" which only makes me hungry.

I was rather surprised, in looking at the TG numbers for the Santa Anita Derby,
that LAL basically replicated the same TG number 4 times (TG 6) in winning 4 2YO
stakes; his best number (3) came in a second place finish in the BC Juvie. And
those margins of victory, as has been mentioned, have been quite modest.

I am not giving up on this colt. As I have told NYC, I do not believe that Derby
prospects with 7 or 8 lifetime starts, especially runners being tried at
distances they are not capable of performing at, have developed TG patterns in
the traditional sense of the word. LAL has a pattern of sorts which is kind of
irresistible to me- he seems to know how to win.

Lets go to the pedigree. LAL is by Smart Strike, who I think even Silver Charm
will agree has replaced Unbridled\'s Sore as America\'s premier stallion; SS was
the dam sire of last years Derby winner. LAL\'s lone sibling to race, Kensei, was
a graded stakes winner last year at 3.

As to his physical condition and how he came out of the SA race, if I were to
take any kind of strong position on him, I would want to see a couple of Baffert-
fast six and seven furlong works leading up to the Derby. Knowing how Baffert has
traditionally worked his better runners, if he goes into the Derby with only
average works I would tend to begin to agree with those who contend that he is
past his peak.

[Uncle Buck]

Richskendreya! Booya! Once again and insightful, logical, humorous post. I think most of the LAL talk is unrealistic to be honest. Most of those who are procaliming him a bottom-of-the-super feeder are just stirring the pot IMO.

Stirring the pot a month before the derby is one thing, standing at the window or your laptop punching in your bet at 5:45pm EDT on May 1 is another.

While I do agree LAL may not be as tactical as I once thought, that might actually work out OK in this Derby. You\'ve watched and wagered on what, 40 derbies? How many times have you seen over anxious jocks (and I\'m talking some of the best in history) get all amped up about \"getting position\" a few lenghts off then come up completely gassed and out of horse at the 3/8th\'s?

Gomez will likely give this one the perfect ride, Baffy will have him looking like that Farrah Fawcet poster we all had as skinny teenagers and he will run a sub zero figure. Looking at his sheet and considering Baffert\'s Derby MO, can\'t you see this guy popping a new top in the -1 range? I can.

[ajkreider]

Speaking of gassed horses in the Derby.

It\'s interesting to note that in the last 5 derbies, a horse in last or 19th place at the 3/4 pole has made it up for the super - and most added a lot to the value.

Find the horse that has a distance pedigree and whose connections and jockey will let him fall to the back of the back.  Thinking Setsuko, at this stage.

[Silver Charm]

Wow Ritchie \"Unbridled Sore\" that one is pretty good. LAL is pretty good. Very game, the type that can be put anywhere in the race. His last was never going to be his best because it didn\'t need to be.

But one word of caution on LAL. His Beyers are lite. None over a 100. He has one real good TG Fig in the Rebel at Oaklawn. The others are not even good enough to sniff Esky\'s jock based off his last two.

I do understand with ground loss and 20 horse traffic anything can happen in the Derby. Esky may only have one gear but it s a pretty damn fast one and since peole are so sure LAL can run faster why not the same for Esky. If someone believes he was full out in his last they are as big a bunch of fools as the crew at this Tiger Promotion Campaign going on right now.

Where are the tough questions like,

\"Did you have sex with Porn Stars?\"
\"Were women being flown in and out of tour stops at your bequest.\"
\"Do you really think we believe Stevie knew nothing.\"
\"Did you choose this venue as a comeback because you knew the media was so restricted and you felt more protected?\"
Why should I ever again buy a product you endorse when you just lied in your answers?\"

[magicnight]

I\'m likethis with Tiger, so, here ya go, Silver:

\"Did you have sex with Porn Stars?\"

Well, Stevie really sucks at Scrabble. And you know how one thing leads to another ... define \"Star\".

\"Were women being flown in and out of tour stops at your bequest.\"

Well, I know the French refer to the orgasm as \"the little death\", but .... no.

\"Do you really think we believe Stevie knew nothing.\"

He\'s a 40-year-old caddy. How smart do you think he is?

\"Did you choose this venue as a comeback because you knew the media was so restricted and you felt more protected?\"

Well, I knew I wouldn\'t have to answer any questions about bikini waxes, if that\'s what you\'re getting at. Besides, the BC Open was too long a wait.

\"Why should I ever again buy a product you endorse when you just lied in your answers?\"

Silver, now I get the whole thing with you and Florida ... you work for the Enquirer!

[Delmar Deb]

Unfortunately, Setsuko is tied with 2 other horses at $180,000 in what amounts to 23rd/24th/25th on the Derby list.  One of those tied with him - Odysseus - is running back in the Blue Grass.  Mandella has said that he will go in the Derby if he gets in, but he\'s not running him again before that for more earnings.

For those of us who bet him at 65-1 in Pool 2, the encouragement of his SA Derby run and all the speed signed on for Kentucky makes this a bitter pill to swallow.