Random Thought - Lookin at Lucky

[nyc1347]

Something tells me that we are going to see something similar with LAL as we just did this past weekend with GGG at the Santa Monica Handicap and also the 2008 Breeders CUp Sprint with Midnight Lute.  Now that I remember Baffert is way too good with 2nd off the layoff horses running in big races AND its very tricky. Something just tells me that Lookin at Lucky will probably not win his first race in several weeks after the layoff but explode the second race. This will give us better odds in the future pool for the derby (Pool 2 or 3).  

I remember handicapping that sprint race and thinking to myself, \"ok this is the FASTEST horse of all time, what do i do?!\". He PAIRED negative 7s regressed next out a month later a few points and then ran like garbage at del mar 9 months later!  After deciding to play the 2 horse that day to WIN i still remember Midnight Lute running by me like nothing.  Sucked but im starting to see a tricky trend here.. and i remember seeing it with other horses too. With GGG i said the same thing this past weekend..\"I dont think she will get thru those 4s\" and bam she did.

Dunno about you guys but other than taking 30-1 on Blind Luck in the future pool if thats possible (going by Vegas Odds) im going to hope LAL loses first off the layoff and secure my spot in Pool 2 and 3 if the odds are much better.  The way i see it is that the horse is definitely developing and growing so he can only get better from last years top efforts.  We know the first saturday in may is what really counts.. and this one has Triple Crown potential too!

[Silver Charm]

Mostly agree. Baffert used to crank them up and crank them up some more. This horse was asked to really run once last year and got a bad post and trip.

Need 8 to 10 to one to take him however in the Futures. Not gonna be less than 5/2 or 2 to one on Derby Day.

[nyc1347]

I really think they asked this horse to run twice last year....

if you look at the race right after the breeder cup juvenile, they really did try with LAL and he won regressing from the rail after his top effort bc day.  Seemed to go on thru the stretch very stubbornly as a rail horse and only win by a couple lengths or so.   This seems to be one of those times where a horse runs a top effort (at breeders cup in this case) then comes out off shorter rest and reacts a few points (the race after breeders cup). I think its a very strong race to consider now being that at 2 years old he was able to run back fairly quickly, run as fast as he could (from what i see) that day, and still hold on to win.

As we know, there is nothing wrong with these young horses reacting as they forge forward in good steps. Most importantly, this year those top efforts should be more consistent thru development.  It will also help that Baffert is only setting up one prep race from what I see going into the Derby.  The projection looks pretty good to me.

A side note about Blind Luck..    reminds me almost of a Bellamy Road type horse where he exploded several points and in my opinion should explode again next time out.  Just hope this one is managed carefully cause BR bounced off the walls derby day after that negative 5 Wood Memorial race and at one point was sidelined for a while.  These young horses running too fast too early is not a good thing unless they have significant rest between each starts.  Guess we will see soon enough.

[Flighted Iron]

Actually(and similarly to POTN last year)LAL had a longer rest post BC than prior
BC.Is Baffert cranking this one up later because of the missed training or by
design?Baffert also has a higher % on 3rd after layoff(albeit only slightly).The same question will arise as with any horse coming from Cali. Synth to dirt transition?

Good Luck,
mjs

[nyc1347]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually(and similarly to POTN last year)LAL had a
> longer rest post BC than prior
> BC.Is Baffert cranking this one up later because
> of the missed training or by
> design?Baffert also has a higher % on 3rd after
> layoff(albeit only slightly).The same question
> will arise as with any horse coming from Cali.
> Synth to dirt transition?
>
> Good Luck,
> mjs





i feel its totally design.   after losing the bc race baffert figured that LAL had enough in the tank to run one more in a $500k race before giving him plenty of rest for this years campaign.   his high percentage 3rd off layoff only goes with the idea of being able to run and win all three triple crown races with a much better chance then any other horse ever.  think about this..  if we gave big brown, afleet alex and smarty jones only one prep prior to the derby dont u think that they wouldve had the best chance to complete the triple crown?   a horse like POTN had 3 preps came over and ran well derby day then did nothing preakness.  4 races seems to be the maximum peak for any horse running these top efforts.  LAL\'s potential 4th race this year would be the belmont stakes.

As far as poly to dirt that does not concern me whatsoever.. my handicapping is consistent with an individual horses efforts unless they specifically show me that they dont like a certain surface or conditions previously.  If a horse is in top shape forging from all poly efforts into a 1st time dirt race, i have to assume that the pattern of top efforts will remain consistent until theres an end of the line or the horse itself shows that it hates dirt.. and vice versa from dirt to poly.

[Flighted Iron]

i feel its totally design. after losing the bc race baffert figured that LAL had enough in the tank to run one more in a $500k race before giving him plenty of rest for this years campaign

LAL worked 5 times after BC day(including 2 moves at 6f)then raced 12/19 and came
back and worked 1/9 and 1/16.If the design was to make his 1st start 3/13 why
would he have posted works in january especially if the design is for a peak in
may.I suppose thats neither here nor there.


i have to assume that the pattern of top efforts will remain consistent until theres an end of the line or the horse itself shows that it hates dirt.. and vice versa from dirt to poly.

I can appreciate your consistent approach,however the derbys variables are not
consistent with day in day out racing.(weight carried,prior distance negotiations,
size of field...).I\'d be more inclined to assume the risk at 25/1 vs 4/1.

mjs

[nyc1347]

i think the drainage issue may have been a factor with those workouts as per this...  http://ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=44661    says that baffert has worked LAL but not extentsively

[nyc1347]

Are you willing to take less than 25 to 1 now?  =D