Peace Rules fig

[bdhsheets]

BRIS and Beyer have the Bluegrass a whole lot slower than T-Graph does.

Would you mind explaining how he received his \"0.5\" for his pedestrian BG?

Thanks, greatly appreciated!

[bdhsheets]

BTW this years running of the Bluegrass was the slowest in 45 years. Not 4, not 5 but 45 years JB. Could you please explain PR\'s 0.5 thanks.

[TGJB]

1- I did the figure the same way I always do, and there are tons of posts on this site explaining what that way is. In this particular case the track was getting faster throughout the card, and I added MUCH more to the Blue Grass than the earlier routes-- if I had done it with the earlier races I would given much BETTER numbers, with at least the first two finishers getting huge negatives. Go look at the charts for the day, and see how slow the times of the routes are.

2- As it happens, Beyer did exactly what I did-- we had Peace Rules pairing his La Derby figure, Beyer had him going from 105 to 104. 10 Beyer points = 3 TG or Rag points, so the difference was a fraction of a TG point, which is offset by the horse carrying 1 pound more in the Bluegrass (Beyer figures don\'t incorporate weight). Also, as it happens, the Bluegrass was one of the few Derby preps that Ragozin had the same as us-- his figures run about 3 points higher, and he had the figure 3 1/2 points higher.

There are plenty of Derby prep numbers to discuss, and I\'ll be getting into some of them next week, but the Bluegrass is not one of them.

[~mike]

Not 45 years, either. Check the time of the 1988 winner, Granacus.

http://www.keeneland.com/liveracing/historydetail.asp?PID=7

[JR]

By my reasoning, if the track was getting faster throughout the day, and they ran the Bluegrass in an unusually \"slow\" time over an increasingly fast track, the figures for the bluegrass should have been exceptionally slow. What am I missing here?

[TGJB]

The track was unbelievably slow, the time of the BG was unbelievably fast considering that. In the first, FM 10 claimers ran the mile in 1:44.38 en route to a 1:51.59 Mile and Sixteenth. In the third, very good older horses (a 25k starter race) ran a final time 2 full seconds slower than the BG, and the winner of that race won by 11 lengths-- the rest of them ran much slower. By the sixth the track was a lot faster, but allowance horses still took 1:46.01 for 1 1/16th. And all these horses were carrying much less weight than the horses in the BG.

The only thing you could possibly do with that race is make it faster. But the figure is solid. And by the way, since Ragozin has the race the same, and doesn\'t slide days without weather changes, how bad do you think he had those other horses running?