Raw Thoro Number vs. Pattern

[nyc1347]

I wanted to post about how I personally handicap for the most part especially when it comes to weighing out both of these factors within the analysis of a race.  I think it is EXTREMELY important to realize that the pattern of a horse is MUCH MORE important than number power.  I am not not saying that a horse cannot win if he has number power but there are sooo many more opportunities to make money in this game by wagering pattern plays.  Obviously, a horse that has both number and pattern are most likely the best plays but rarely give us a great price.


Advantages and Disadvantages of both:

1.  Having a horse that has already run previous efforts that would average out to a pretty strong numnber play is more of a safe bet.  But within wagering horses like this I notice that you really do not get any kind of value.  The public is most likely overall wagering the horse you are looking at and theres no advantage to wager unless the horse completely overlays the field.

2.  Wagering a horses pattern will allow us to gauge how a horse will do next time out and supply us with more odds overall due to the public wagering on horses that have that most likely have that number power and top class efforts or simply the \"morning line\" favorite.

3.  Recovery Pattern wagers plays a strong role against horses that have number power, not only against other thoro users but the general betting public as well. It usually supplies us with generous odds since the horse has shown more recent off or non efforts.

4.  Young horses such as the Sham Stakes this past weekend is a great example of a horse with number power compared to projection.  In that race, there were many horses moving forward and even though The Program ran 3 great efforts the actual horse told me from what i saw that it was the end of the line.  The Sutsuko wager was based on a disruptive pattern forging forward because of the last out on turf BUT its a key point because horse that won actually had to same situation running turf last out as well.  The point is that the number power horse was 3rd favorite and a projection couldve been made based on pattern and not number power to tell who was going to most likely win the race since multiple horses were improving overall.

5.  Number power has a disadvantage as well when it comes to the dreaded bounce.  A horse running huge numbers not only offers low value but some horses who run big tops will bounce IF the PATTERN suggests it.  Yet another advantage of pattern play.  (also the 0-2-X PATTERN AND Recovery from it are examples)

6.  Off efforts such as first turf, first poly or first dirt may effect a horses forward OR backward pattern.  Pattern is more of an indication than raw number power in this case as well.

7.  Wagering a horse that runs a new top race it hasnt done before will almost always give us very generous odds.


Overall, I always try to stay away from just raw number compared to odds given (unless it is very generous or its a no brainer \"easy money\" race) and try to stay with horses that are moving forward and have hidden races that the general public or thoro users do not see or take into consideration.  Obviously wagering a show as I do only covers me more with room for error during a race (instead of a win) but I am also able to get a better feel in my opinion on how the race will actually lay out and run for my horse in that given race.