Rachel Work

[smalltimer]

Not a very smart post on my part.  I looked a week ago at the foal dates for a ton of horses, especially Derby hopefuls, and threw in Rachel and Z for good measure.  On the site I looked, it showed Rachel properly and had an obvious error for Zenyatta.  When I checked the site last night, they were do doing maintenance (Thorough Query), and had corrected Z to the accurate 4/1/04.
My initial response to Miff was that Rachel was, in fact, a very young 3 year old last year.
Peace out.

[smalltimer]

Mike,

Most people on this board know I am a Zenyatta fan, but I\'m also a Rachel fan, but to a lesser degree.
I am a bit concerned with Rachel\'s workouts thus far.  No doubt, she is capable of running her eyeballs out when needed, but I can\'t help but think last year\'s campaign was so grueling, she could take awhile to round into top condition.  

We all know Asmussen is top notch and will do nothing to jeopardize Rachel\'s entire 2010 campaign.  If Rachel is not showing signs of her former self, he may elect to not ship to the AB.  Public pressure will push him that way, but I also think Asmussen must feel the race, especially if Z can still run a little, won\'t be a total walkover.  Despite public pressure last year, Asmussen wouldn\'t send Rachel to try the synthetic, and Z\'s connections wouldn\'t ship her to run on the dirt either.  Both camps like to win....and the whole racing world is gonna be watching so the last thing either camp wants is their filly/mare to be beaten at less than their best for this early in the year. Rachel will have to be fit enough to get the entire 9f and finish it strong cause when you throw $5M into the pot, there will be some capable runners in there.  

Gonna give it a rest now until they both are announced as starters.

Have a good one.

[Cartman]

Several things could potentially narrow the gap between Zenyatta and Rachel.

1. Even though there have been a few very fast synthetic races, the general trend has been for the highest quality synthetic races to be slower than comparable quality races on dirt. That may be a pace issue. It can be demonstrated (and has been by multiple sources) that all else being equal the average pace is slower for synthetic races.

2. The one time Zenyatta ran on dirt, she was still very early in her development and spiked forward impressively. She didn\'t improve her figures much after that, but it\'s hard to tell whether she actually didn\'t improve or whether the improvement was masked by the switch back to slow paced synthetic races. It would be a lot clearer if her first dirt race came in her 10th start or if she had another one last year.

The most obvious case against Z is that so far she has been slower and the conditions for the AB are ideal for Rachel Alexandra.

If I was the connections of Zenyatta, I would want the race to be run at 10F, on a synthetic track, against a couple of Grade 1 quality \"colts\" with enough speed to create an honest pace for elite fillies like this. We have already seen that Rachel is more vulnerable against other high quality speed, but only Grade 1 quality colts or close that actually have enough ability to press her and take some starch out of her. 10F would obviously make her more vulnerable and synthetic would be a question mark but probably a negative given her style.  

If I was the connections of Rachel, I would want the race to be run at 9F, on dirt, against fillies. That way she would be at her optimal distance, on her favorite surface, and will be able to either control or stalk a pace well within her own range.

Given the conditions of the Apple Blossom, this race reminds me a lot of the Marvin Hagler and Sugar Ray Leonard fight where Hagler agreed to fight Ray in the largest possible legal ring, with gloves that had the thumb attached to protect Ray\'s eyes and minimize the impact of power punches, at 12 rounds instead of 15 rounds, and with judges well known for favoring boxers over punchers.

It kind of makes you wonder what this race or that fight actually proves. Surely there could have been some sort of compromise in the conditions.

[Michael D.]

Cartman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Several things could potentially narrow the gap
> between Zenyatta and Rachel.
>
> 1. Even though there have been a few very fast
> synthetic races, the general trend has been for
> the highest quality synthetic races to be slower
> than comparable quality races on dirt. That may be
> a pace issue. It can be demonstrated (and has been
> by multiple sources) that all else being equal the
> average pace is slower for synthetic races.
>
> 2. The one time Zenyatta ran on dirt, she was
> still very early in her development and spiked
> forward impressively. She didn\'t improve her
> figures much after that, but it\'s hard to tell
> whether she actually didn\'t improve or whether the
> improvement was masked by the switch back to slow
> paced synthetic races. It would be a lot clearer
> if her first dirt race came in her 10th start or
> if she had another one last year.
>
> The most obvious case against Z is that so far she
> has been slower and the conditions for the AB are
> ideal for Rachel Alexandra.
>
> If I was the connections of Zenyatta, I would want
> the race to be run at 10F, on a synthetic track,
> against a couple of Grade 1 quality \"colts\" with
> enough speed to create an honest pace for elite
> fillies like this. We have already seen that
> Rachel is more vulnerable against other high
> quality speed, but only Grade 1 quality colts or
> close that actually have enough ability to press
> her and take some starch out of her. 10F would
> obviously make her more vulnerable and synthetic
> would be a question mark but probably a negative
> given her style.  
>
> If I was the connections of Rachel, I would want
> the race to be run at 9F, on dirt, against
> fillies. That way she would be at her optimal
> distance, on her favorite surface, and will be
> able to either control or stalk a pace well within
> her own range.
>
> Given the conditions of the Apple Blossom, this
> race reminds me a lot of the Marvin Hagler and
> Sugar Ray Leonard fight where Hagler agreed to
> fight Ray in the largest possible legal ring, with
> gloves that had the thumb attached to protect
> Ray\'s eyes and minimize the impact of power
> punches, at 12 rounds instead of 15 rounds, and
> with judges well known for favoring boxers over
> punchers.
>
> It kind of makes you wonder what this race or that
> fight actually proves. Surely there could have
> been some sort of compromise in the conditions.

Cart,

9f is the classic distance for f&m, and Zen loves the surface. They are also paying down to 10th, which should ensure a decent field.

I don\'t think either runner has an excuse in this one.

[Cartman]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Cart,
>
> 9f is the classic distance for f&m, and Zen loves
> the surface. They are also paying down to 10th,
> which should ensure a decent field.
>
> I don\'t think either runner has an excuse in this
> one.



Michael,
 
I respectfully disagree. IMHO, these are two very unique fillies with very different running styles and preferences. Zenyatta\'s major accomplishments have been as a deep closer on synthetic surfaces and Rachel Alexandra\'s as a speed horse on dirt.
 
You can argue that Zenyatta handled dirt well in her only start at Oaklawn. However, IMHO there is a huge fundamental difference between dirt and synthetic racing.
 
Deep powerful closers like Zenyatta are not disadvantaged on synthetic tracks the way they are on dirt tracks. If anything, deep reserves of stamina and a powerful closing kick are actually an advantage in route races.

The exact opposite is true on dirt. The winner is typically one of the major contenders that gets good early position. Only a very fast pace gives those deep closers a real shot.
 
If this race was being held at SA, at 10F, on Pro Ride, against some speedy colts (like the BC Classic) every Rachel Alexandra fan on earth would be howling that the conditions favored Zenyatta. I would agree with that. I\'d make Zenyatta 2-5 in that spot to beat Rachel. It would be totally unfair.
 
Yet, this race is being held at 9F, on dirt, against fillies and no one seems to have an issue with it even though it\'s the exact set of conditions that Rachel loves most. The only thing missing is a speed bias. Perhaps Oaklawn will provide that too. ;-)    
 
I\'m not particularly interested in who is better at 9F on dirt against fillies or who is better at 10F on Pro Ride against colts. I believe I already know both answers. What I am really curious about is which of them is relatively better at what they excel at.
 
I think there were several ways to help determine that.
 
1. You could make the race 10F instead of 9F to take away some of the advantage of speed on dirt.  
 
Even though 9F tends to be the more standard classic distance for fillies, the Alabama, CCAO (until this year), and Delaware Hcp are all high quality races at 10F for fillies. The Breeder\'s Cup Classic is also at 10F and I presume Rachel will run in it if she\'s still going well enough to try to repeat her HOTY honors.
 
2. You could keep the distance 9F but invite colts to ensure an honest pace .
 
I can only think of one filly in the country (Careless Jewel) that has enough high quality route speed to keep Rachel \"honest\" on the lead (other than a suicidal rabbit). But Careless Jewell isn\'t running.  Therefore even though the pace of the Apple Blossom is unlikely to be slow, it is likely to be slow \"relative to the ability of horses like RA and Z\".  

Let me explain. These two horses are very superior to other Grade 1 fillies. So average for other Grade 1 fillies is slow \"for these two\". That\'s a very subtle point that many will not understand, but IMO it\'s very relevant. IMO this is one reason RA has finished so well in her filly races, but seemed more vulnerable late and recorded slower speed figures against colts a couple of times. Against colts, she\'s more likely to face another horse of similar ability on the lead.
 
3. You could run the race on a synthetic track but shorten the distance to a mile or a mile and 70 yards to diminish the disadvantage that very speedy horses have on synthetic track when they don\'t back down the pace (look what happend to Careless Jewel when she didn\'t rate well in the BC).
 
4. You could run a series of races at different distances and on different surfaces.
 
IMO, this race will only serve to reinforce misunderstandings about the differences between the two surfaces and hurt Zenyatta\'s reputation among people that don\'t understand the surface, pace, running style and figure  issues.  
 
What are we going to do next?
 
Run Sacred Kingdom against Rachel Alexandra at 9F on dirt and say that proves something about their relative ability? ;-)