Had to take the plunge on Rule at 20-1

[covelj70]

For a TG purist, he\'s the most likely winner right now so at 20-1, I had to take a shot.

American Lion is also tempting as I love his pattern (getting back to his 2 yr old top first out at 3) but he\'s slower than Rule before accounting for any move up for synthetics which we see so often.

[Rick B.]

I grabbed some at 20-1 too. Also bought some small exactas with a few of the named 23, and a big exacta box with the #24 \"All other 3 year olds\". Last I looked, a $2 ex of 24 over Rule was paying $182, with the reverse paying $254.

[Rick B.]

Now what I\'m wondering is, will a crush of money come in on the last flash before they close the futures pool and knock Rule down to 8-1...the way every winner at Gulfstream seems to have been getting hit lately?

[Halo Fire]

After watching this horse in the Delta Jackpot and the Tampa race, I can\'t knock your play. Putting numbers aside for a second, Rule has the one ingredient we all look for....h-e-a-r-t.

Horse reminds me of Thunder Gulch.

[Silver Charm]

Roman Ruler on top. I am not so sure with Rule. Didn\'t Odyssess run the same time at Tampa about three days later?

[Michael D.]

I took Switch in the Oaks pool. Hasn\'t improved much off the strong \'8\' first out over the cushion, but she\'s been finishing deceivingly well, and is bred to get 9f on dirt. Taking 60-1 she likes the trip and pops in the Oaks. Blind Luck looks tough with the fast dirt and cushion figures last year. Won\'t hold the sluggish pro-ride runs against her. Can\'t take 4-1 though.  

And Super Saver in the Derby future. Borel at CD, and a solid one-paced effort over the surface last year. Maria\'s Mons develop well from 2 to 3; AP Indy over a full to Travers winner Rhythm on bottom. Rating the speed the major challenge here.

[ajkreider]

As I mentioned in the other thread, if you think he\'s going to be the favorite, you have to bet him at 20-1.

The remarkable thing is that you\'ll probably know by next Saturday whether this was a good bet.  The only way Rule enters the KD as the fav is if he beats Esk convincingly in the Florida Derby.  It\'ll be his last prep prior to May, so if he doesn\'t win, there\'s no way he goes in as the favorite (regardless of his pattern), and, depending on how he looks there, will be around 20-1 on Derby Day.  If he passes on the FD for the Wood, to be the fav he will need to a) win that convincingly, and b) have Esk flop in the FD, (and have others things happen around the country).  

Either way his being short odds for the derby depends in large part on what happens March 20th.