Mission Impazible in the Southwest/Jackson Bend in FOY

[covelj70]

Looks like Pletcher could have another live one for the Derby after the Southwest.  

Mission Impazible is very fast, bred to go two turns and is getting weight from a bunch of others who are slower to begin with.

Coa will have to work out a trip from the far outside and there are a number inside of him who are quick so he will either have to tuck in or lose ground on the first turn but at anywhere near the 20-1 morning line, he\'s more than worth a shot.

It\'s funny, before I looked at the sheets, I thought the FOY was deepest 3 year old race of the weekend but after looking at the sheets, Jackson Bend is a huge standout to me in the FOY and everyone is running for second assuming he can get the 1 1/8th (not saying he\'s a bet as one of the favorites, just that I don\'t think he will get beat).  The Southwest is alot deeper with Fatal Bullet, Dryfly and a few others very quick as well.

Southwest is a great betting race.  Lot of money to be made on this one I think.

[Michael D.]

I liked Mission Impaz after the draw last week. He\'s fast and bred to get at least 1m. Tough post now though, and I do think he\'s gonna take money. I see a lot of pace here, especially since MI now has to go. I still like Pleasant Storm from off the pace.

I\'ll post on the others later. Discreetly Mine looks ready to bust right through the \'5\' lvl, doesn\'t he?

[mjellish]

The FOY is one of my favorite races every year.  Good chance of finding the derby winner or least some strong contenders in it.

I\'m not as bullish as Jim on Jackson Bend.  No doubt that he is a nice colt, but I think he gets the acid test here.  This small framed horse no doubt ran the best race in the Holy Bull, but that was an all out effort first time off the shelf for Zito.  I think he\'s going to have early pressure here again,both from the inside and out, and that plus the final 1/8th may get him.  To me the key to making money on this race is therefore to hope he spits out the bit in the stretch and toss Jackson Bend altogether.  Risky toss, but I think it is the right play.

Most intriguing horse to me is probably Buddy\'s Saint.  His race in the Nashua was off the charts.  True, he hugged a lightening fast rail at AQ that day.  But if he comes back to that number or close to it I think everyone else is running for second money.  Plus he\'s already shown he can get the 1 1/8th.  He\'s shown he can rate, but coming off the layoff out of the 2 post may make him a little keen to go early, which would hurt him here, and that plus the layoff and giving weight to everyone else as the probable favorite is probably not an ideal betting situation, at least not for me.  But if he\'s ready to go none of that may matter.  I think this colt is for real, but I\'m not sold that he is a true classic runner come the first Saturday in May.  Too early to tell what Saint Liam\'s runners are going to show for development from 2-3, but early indications aren\'t entirely promising.


With all of that being said, Eskendereya is going to be my key horse unless the track is sloppy or I see front runners keep on going all day as they sometimes do on FOY day at Gulfstream.  That was a good ALWN1X field he beat in his last.  This is his first run at 1 1/8th and the breeding on top and bottom says he is going to LOVE going longer.  He had a lot of trouble in the Cup, he\'s had real dirt kicked back in his face at Belmont, he can rate and split horses, has tactical speed and some seasoning...  

The way I see it he should get a a good, stalking trip behind an honest pace and begin moving up on the turn.  He will need to work out a trip from the 8 post and move forward a few points to get there, but Pletcher is getting numbers in FL again, this is a Pletcher second time out, and Giant\'s Causeway\'s tend to improve a lot with age and added ground.  In his last race this guy also laid down methodical 12 second 1/8ths and finished up well with a good gallop out, which is a telling sign of a pending Grade I horse that may really like 1 1/4.  I put a future bet down on this one just in case I am right.

I seriously doubt Aikenite gets involved in the early going like he did in the Holy Bull.  That was nothing but a prep and I think he will move forward off that effort.  I think he saves ground and gets a piece of this at decent odds.

So my first serious bet of 2010.  5 Unit Win bet on Esk at 5-1 or better.  Saver EX Buddy\'s Saint over Esk for 1 Unit.  If I can get 25-1 I will play a 1 unit ESK/BS EX.  And a small moonshot ESK,BS/ESK,BS/AIK Tri for about 1/6th of a unit if the EX\'s are offering fir value by themselves.

Good Luck to All.

[covelj70]

oh man, MJ, you\'re killing me.  I trust you more than anyone on this stuff so now I have to go back to the drawing board.

I was literally gonna key Jackson Bend over 3 others and throw Buddy\'s Saint out given the first off the layoff.

What a game, eh?

[Michael D.]

Mostly agree Michael. I\'ve been a big fan of Eskend since last year, and expect a move forward here. He is indeed bred to run forever. Last was a 3 pt top though, and another 2 points of development might be offset by a 3w/3w trip, especially in relation to Buddy. I was originally looking to bet against BS first out, but he drew so well here, and might not even be the favorite. Obviously might not be cranked, but if he moves like he did in the Nashua, it may not matter. Distance an issue as well after the 4.5 pt regression stretching out last year, but that was on three weeks, and he won rather easily. Nicely bred to go long. Pletcher\'s other runner, Aikenite, is also eligible to improve. Way too close last. Saint Ballado over Secretariat on bottom. And Prince Will might make a decent late run, though I\'m not sure he can improve much off the perfect trip. I\'ll just have to let Jackson Bend beat me. 2nd out is not a strong category for Zito, and that last one was a grueling race.

Key BS over Eskend, use Aik and PWIA below.

[mjellish]

Hey, don\'t let me get you off something you like.  I got smoked in the triple crown last year and never cashed a ticket.  I played against Rachel and Mine That Bird in the Preakness and that turned out to be the Exacta.  Of late, all of done is make a little money on the Breeders Cup, and even then I let a couple of nice cup races get past me, especially the dirt mile.  

Go with your horse.

[TGJB]

There are lots of good betting stake races this weekend, the FOY ain\'t one of them. People using the same data kicking around the three favorites and not having consensus-- can\'t be a good thing.

[mjellish]

Yep.  The trip is a concern.  I think the jock is a plus out of the gate/securing early position.  But the horse could go even worse than 3w 3w against this field breaking from the 8 post at 1 1/8th at Gulstream.  My hope is 2w on the first turn.  Not as worried about the second.

[covelj70]

for sure the Southwest is a much better betting race, that was the gist of my original post.

Still fun to kick it all around though.

[marcus]

I\'m going to attempt to put together small P-3\'s /P-4\'s for the late GP races .  The Turf Stk to conclude the card imo could produce some prices .  
The OP race is interesting , Crider looked ok to me at 20-1 or better last Monday , but at 10-1 ML for Saturday , it\'s just not the same play .

[Silver Charm]

I know Pletcher really likes this horse but that may be more of a long run proposition.

You gotta believe after having purchased Jackson Bend privately over the winter and this being a Grade One, Zito and Co are ready to ring the CaASh Register now.

[smithkent]

Nice call on Eskendereya mjellish...

[covelj70]

MJ,

Great call as usual.

You are the man.