Horse Racing as a Profession?

[TGJB]

Miff-- 3% of the people who play horses is a REALLY big number-- thousands.

Kent-- I know a way you can make a lot of money. I know a couple of guys who are always looking for bookmakers. They bet a couple of thousand a race. Since there is no shot they can win, why don\'t you match the current rebates they are getting (net takeout about 11%), and book them? You can make a fortune. Let me know.

FYI, some of us rememember the joint that opened in Vegas with a lot of fanfare in the late 80\'s or early 90\'s and was dedicated to just booking horseplayers-- no rebates, no bet too large, they held everything. The guy in charge issued a flat out challenge, saying words almost exactly the same as yours-- you can\'t beat the horses.They got blown out by the pros in less than a year and closed up shop.

It\'s a tougher game now-- we are in the information age. But rebates are the great equalizer. Back when I was an active pro player, I was (for a while) considered number one (I had 18 consecutive winning months at one point). I\'m pretty sure my results would be a lot better if I could devote myself fulltime to handicapping (I work at least 320 days a year running this show), but nowadays I don\'t do well enough to make a living at it-- WITH rebates.

Do pretty well in the real-money contests, though. Not that hard to find the time to focus for two days.

[mjellish]

If I remember correctly that place was named The Sport of Kings.  And yes, they got their clocks cleaned in a hurry.

I\'m done with this thread.  It\'s impossible to debate with people that ignore empirical evidence or use flawed logic when formulating their opinions.  And it\'s just fine with me if they want to then give other people a bad piece of advice and hope they take it.  People can believe whatever they want.

[smithkent]

A recent book you all will enjoy is \"The Drunkard\'s Walk\".  It is a fascinating discussion of the role that randomness plays in our lives.  One of the overriding principles is that eventually, there is a regression to the mean.  That means that eventually, your good(or bad) fortune will revert to what is mathematically true.  In the world of horserace betting, that means you will eventually lose whatever the takeout rate is.

It is in the nature of human beings to live and interpret events in a very anecdotal fashion.  Nowhere more do you see this than in the world of handicapping.  Great effort is expended to sift through the past results, thinking this will provide the clue as to what will occur in the future.  While a fascinating exercise, it is ultimately impossible.

You see the same behavior in stock market predictions.  Wise knowing individuals make predictions about future stock behavior, only to be undone by events that were not forseen.  They go back to the drawing board, hoping that they will be able use that data to predict the next trend. Really a Sisyphean exercise.

I enjoy the experience of horseracing more than almost any other live sporting event- like I said- I love going to my box at beautiful Santa Anita on the SA Derby day.  I always take a fine cigar with my father.  A little Jack Daniels with that cigar at the end of the day is a ritual with us.  I\'ll be very sad if the political/economic conditions ever take that experience away.

I\'ll leave you guys to the hard work of beating a game that mathematically can\'t be beat.  BTW- I have a great day job.  I am a practicing physician, have been for 30 years.  One thing I can tell you is- getting a good education is one of the best investments I ever made.  I\'d tell every one here to take your capital and think about deploying it into a solid education...

[miff]

Miff-- 3% of the people who play horses is a REALLY big number-- thousands.

JB,

Daily players, not occasionals. When the NYRA franchise was up for bid, the lead attorney for one bidding group was a friend. I saw all sorts of data re racing(tons) produced by consulting firms. One report put the \"daily\" player at less than 28% of the whole but no figs were shown.

I don\'t know one player and I know many many high rollers/whales who are NOT beating the game without a rebate.For the purpose of this conversation,the guys who are beating the game WITHOUT a rebate are few and far in between and no way there are thousands.


Mike

[mjellish]

I crushed my MCAT and got accepted to med school, UW Wisconsin and Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, and never went to either.  I consider myself better off for that.  

Not sure what your point is.

[TGJB]

Kent-- I\'ve told the story about the jumping frog here before (frog with 3 legs jumps 3 feet, etc.). See if you can find it. Then read your first paragraph again.

It actually scares me that someone who wrote that paragraph is a doctor, no kidding. (Big hint-- your mean and my mean are not the same).

By your logic, even if only one person was clocking the races, and everyone else was betting without knowing the times of races,he couldn\'t win-- can\'t beat the take, you know.

[Leamas57]

That was awesome--thanks!

Leamas

[Beginner]

This is an awesome post MJ.  I doubt you recall, but I asked you about wager construction shortly after you crushed the BB Derby and how you allocated funds.  The money management, handicapping and luck percentages you state here (while I\'m sure approximate) are super helpful to me in better understanding the way the pros formulate this.  Of course, I couldn\'t agree more with whoever posted about betting strategy.  I read Crist\'s book \"Exotic Betting\" last year and it\'s enlightening to say the least. I\'m sure it is something to which I will continually refer.

I\'ve played craps for about 15 years now, so I\'ve got the money management thing down, just need to keep honing my handicapping skills and betting strategies and almost everyone here has helped me in one form or another to that end - so thanks!

On a totally separate note, I tend to only play the triple crown, BC races and a bunch of other NY races (live in NY).  I don\'t know if this is possible or even realistic, but if TG had a mechanism on the site that indicated, for example, that the sheets for today\'s card at Oaklawn are showing a solid pattern for a horse that\'s likely going to be overlooked by the public, it would definitely entice me to get more involved. (Not that it is even remotely about me, but perhaps there are others who would also \"get more involved\").  Apologies if this is something that has been previously discussed or sounds pedantic in any way, it\'s only meant as an idea to get more people more involved in the game.

[nyc1347]

Being that there are soooo many different angles to approach a race and that public money is a huge factor into betting a race i couldnt imagine anything but one mechanism that would exist to allow a secluded offer thru this site.  beauty is in the eye of the beholder and just because a certain pattern exists with the fastest horse or best horse in form or whatever you are looking for doesnt mean a person would even wager on it.  

the only thing i can possibly imagine is maybe an opportunity through a customized thoro pattern percentage statistic.    something being offered such as:  

a page on this site allowing a random person to choose a custom situation within the thoro percentages (top %, pair %, off% and X%) and leaving an email (such as thoro-track) so that they can be informed of their customized thoro statistic.

example:   Person A goes on the web page made on this site,  choose that they want a horse to have a minimum of 100 starts with a %40 Pair(min)and %20(min) within the percentages stat, and then getting informed thru email that this situation exists giving the person the option to purchase the race at $5.

my opinion in this case is that its really not even worth it.. it makes no sense either because even if a horse has these percentages to pair or run a new top, it doesnt mean its even competitive within the field its running against in that given race.  Plus, its a pain in the ass to even set up and theres no edge whatsoever involved without the many other factors involved such as ROI, toteboard action, etc..

[TGJB]

Everything else aside, George would shoot me if I asked him to program that, so there wouldn\'t be any more figures.

[Beginner]

Of course it\'s easy for me to lob in \"suggestions\" from the cheap seats! I for one don\'t want George being overworked or shooting anyone - least of all, you! NYC - thanks for the thoughtful response - I agree that there are LOTS more factors one would evaluate and I suppose such a thing would be far more \"marketing\" than gambling edge, but for the occasional, casual player like me, I have overweight a bet when I saw the TG analysis showing an \"A\" for confidence and that was sort of the angle I was going for. Some kind of \"signal\" that there\'s an \"A\" out there instead of a \"B\" - but of course, the second that worked (if at all) with any consistency, it would cease to be profitable.  I think the Jet\'s victory is affecting my brain - I\'m having a tough time digesting the win (despite being ecstatic).

[nyc1347]

no problem man, in my opinion, there are only \"A\"\'s and \"F\"\'s within the same race you are handicapping.. those 2 letters are the only ones you should be using in my opinion bc the specific wager you are making will either win or lose and that is all that matters with this game when putting money up.  An \"A\" \"B\" \"C\" or D\" point of view with handicapping and placing a certain wager will always receive an \"A\" of \"F\" result.  

The only thing seperating an A or B rating as an example is a percentage that has NOTHING to do with ROI!   you could have A information and win 9 out of 10 times but lose money overall on that 10th time.  on the reverse you may have C information giving you 3 out of 10 wager winners and you can be up money... and vice versa.  The point is that every situation presents a new opportunity.  Weigh out your bet options with your opinions and ROI and take things step by step.

Also, in my opinion,  the Jets should Bounce next week  =D

[Cartman]

This game is so difficult to beat, most are either incapable of doing so or throw in the towel long before they develop the knowledge and skills to do so. Most of those that eventually beat the game limit it to hobby status because they can make more money doing other things with less effort.

I think you have to make a distinction between winning and making a living. I know a lot of winners (myself included). I only know two people that made a living for an extended period of time. Both eventually burnt out and one got a job.

This is the problem.

Assume you find 150 races per year at your track where the public makes a huge mistake that you can exploit. You bet $200 per race. You\'d put 30K through the windows. No matter how selective and skilled you are, your ROI will not be high enough to make anything close to a living even though you are winning player.

To make a living you\'d have to be much less selective, accept much narrower edges (which in turn raises volatility), raise your bet size sharply, and follow other tracks in an effort to get massively more money through the windows. All of that involves extra work, extra stress, a larger bankroll, and at some tracks after a certain point you might even be playing a self defeating game by impacting your own price with the larger bets. It makes no sense to try to make a living playing horses unless you have no monetary alternatives.

Every winner I know finds their own balance between horses, personal life, career, family etc.. that works best for them and horses are usually low in the pecking order.

[trackjohn]

Good memory...it was called \"The Sport of Kings\" and was in a separate location (not adjacent to any of the casinos)..lasted less than 18 months!

John