Nice 3 yr old allowance race in the 8th at GP today

[covelj70]

some of these will probably wind up on the Derby trail after this race so will be interesting to see who runs well here.

The value in the race looks like trying to beat Eskendereya who will likely be co-favorite along with Thank U Phillipe.

E ran one figure that could win this race but two others that wouldn\'t.  I am not sure that this is his best surface and/or best distance and race shapes is working against him so I think it\'s a good idea to take a stand against him.

If Thank U Phillipe runs his number (which he should off the layoff), they are all running for second so I think putting him on top of Remand, Bank the Eight and Middle of the Nite makes sense at they should all offer some value.  

Remand has a good number and license to move forward under a good first time trainer barn and Bank the Eight has 2 good numbers, is rested and is bred to be any kind and then, for full disclosure, I own a very small piece of Middle of the Nite and the race shapes set up very well for him here so I think he could get a piece. Edgar takes the mount back on MOTN and he had good very good things to say after the last race.

I will also play a small box using the 3 longer ones in case Phillipe doesn\'t run back to the good numbers.

Good luck to all

[covelj70]

whoops, got beat by the heavy chalk.

When I saw that E was 9-5 and Thank U Phillpe was 4-1, I figured that I was in trouble.  Just on the numbers, Phillpe looked better so when there was that much of a discrepency in the odds, I figured Pletcher was talking the talk on this one.

I think E will make some noise on the Derby trail, Pletcher\'s got a nice hand this year for the Derby.  Maybe finally his year?

[Wrongly]

Pletcher - Aikenite, Connemara, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, Rule, Super Saver, Toboggan Slide, and maybe a couple of others but haven\'t we seen this from Pletcher before?

Look at what Baffert\'s holding - Bulldogger, Concord Point, Conveyance, Indian Firewater, Lookin at Lucky, Macias, Quiet Invader, Take Control, Tiny Woods, Tiz Chrome.  He\'s loaded, too bad he\'s on the West Coast plastic.

[covelj70]

agree on all counts.

One good thing is that Baffert is so loaded that in order to keep at least some of them apart, he\'s going to need to send some of them onto the real stuff before the Derby.

That said, the fact that Pioneer of the Nile ran his race in last year\'s Derby will make me a bit more reluctant to toss poly only horses this year.  Two years ago, I liked Col John assuming his figs would improve syn to dirt (which they didn\'t, he ran his race unfortunately for me).

Last year, I tossed POTN for, among other reasons, assuming that he was more of a turf horse which he turned out to be given that he hurt himself, for among other reasons, running on the dirt but he still ran his race and I didn\'t use him.

[Silver Charm]

These and others will all be good ones to follow all spring.

I have said elsewhere that the Maidens and 1X\'s this year are probably more important than in previous years. Simple because of how average the 2YO figures were last year. A newcomer could burst onto the scene with a fast 90+ Beyer or 5 or better TG figure going 7F or more and he is instantly a serious Derby Contender.

I do believe that Lookin at Lucky is the \"real deal\" and D\'Funnybone is not the horse you saw on BC Day. But after that everyone else is a wait and see prospect including those we have hardly seen or yet to see...........