Hit a 100-1 SHOT with T-G Race Shapes

[Dana666]

I\'ve been telling anyone who would listen, and few people ever listen to me, that Hollywood has had a pronounced speed bias this meet, so with that point of view, T-G Race Shapes have become a lethal handicapping tool.  They\'ve been simply lights out the last few weeks at Hollywood,and yesterday they gave a 100-1 shot Rummysecret War, at least, a long look for me, so I threw him into pick-4\'s.

Why is it that when 100-1 shots win, they run off the screen? He looked like a winner every step of the race. I think the jock couldn\'t believe how easy he won. Of course, later in the day, I\'m alive for a small fortune, and I can\'t get a 3-1 shot (Boulder Creek) home in the last race; he lost by a nose,but he did lose to a good horse (Came Aboard), so I have nothing negative to say; he ran his heart out. Hey, you win some and you lose some.

Anyway, if you guys and gals need some extra cash for the holidays, get your race shapes and play Hollywood. You still have a few weeks left in the meet, and if you\'re using them, don\'t think too much, just look at the data, and mix it up. You can\'t always be too precise, better to mix it up. There was another 100-1 shot earlier in the meet who figured similarly (by the same sire, too, Seaofsecrets). I can\'t remember too many speed biases like this one though. I think it has to do with the wax on the track wearing thin.

On a more depressing note, what the hell was Mike Smith doing on Machismo in yesterday\'s feature? Absolutely disgraceful ride; he must have told everyone in the park he wasn\'t going to try either because the horse was like 7-1 when he should have been one of the favorites (I still bet $300 on him - now, if I were really sharp, I would have bet the 1, who became the only speed - because I said to a friend, is it possible Smith won\'t ride this animal?). He should just stay in the jock\'s room. If I were Sadler, I\'d never ride Smith on another horse the rest of his life. He can be such a great rider, too, but when he checks out, mentally, that\'s it. He decides he\'s not riding this horse and that\'s that. I\'d have more respect if he just complained to the vet and scratched the horse or refused to ride. Not fair to the bettors, Mike! You gotta think of us once in a while, dude. You don\'t have a career without us!

Lastly, I hear there will be no Santa Anita or Gulfstream simulcasting this winter. That sure makes sense. In this economy someone wants to refuse business. Those executives are so smart they should be in Congress! Good, I\'ll take a vacation or go back to Philly Park (like I did 20 years ago) on nice days. Screw them is all I can say. They don\'t want my money, I can find something else to do with it. NYRA also is getting weird; they don\'t send their video signal to my wagering account? What the hell\'s up with that? Guys, you think I like betting on races I can\'t watch??? Is your winter inner-track product so valuable and precious, you can\'t send out the signal? Freaking morons. They should have it free on their website for crying out loud.

Anyway, back to race shapes - thanks again, Jerry, for another innovative handicapping tool (in a long list of great products) from a very innovative mind. One thing\'s for sure, we don\'t always agree on everything, but you ALWAYS put the bettor\'s first! For that, above all else, you deserve thanks.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Dana

Glad you hit the longshot but have to take issue with your take on the Underwood on several fronts.  First, Machismo should not have been one of the favorites.  The five year old gelding had never won on synthetic, had not raced in months and took almost a month to get off the vets list after the early November vet scratch.

As far as the jocks ride; Machismo a complete need the lead type, broke slow as many sore horses do, was squeezed back to last, tried to get out the entire turn and could only beat the horse that was vanned off. No jockey would have changed his finish.  BBB

[Dana666]

Well, I understand people see things differently, but if you\'re using Thorograph Sheets (go to the Red Board room and look it up), as well as pace figures, it shouldn\'t have even been close - when I adjusted his number w/thorographs he was something like 2 points faster than any other horse in the race (and that number was earned on a synthetic track by the way). Couple that w/the fact that he was the clear and main speed, and he should have fit very well; people told me I was wrong and Sadler put him in to make the pace fast for his other horse, a closer - OK, if that\'s the case then Smith is still supposed to send him and take the 1 out of the race - the 1 was one the slowest horse in the race by at least 3 points! The way I saw it Smith grabbed him immediately upon leaving the gate and it was all over from there; he\'s just riding to finish the race and live to ride another day.

[sekrah]

>
> On a more depressing note, what the hell was Mike
> Smith doing on Machismo in yesterday\'s feature?
> Absolutely disgraceful ride; he must have told
> everyone in the park he wasn\'t going to try either
> because the horse was like 7-1 when he should have
> been one of the favorites (I still bet $300 on him
> - now, if I were really sharp, I would have bet
> the 1, who became the only speed - because I said
> to a friend, is it possible Smith won\'t ride this
> animal?). He should just stay in the jock\'s room.
> If I were Sadler, I\'d never ride Smith on another
> horse the rest of his life. He can be such a great
> rider, too, but when he checks out, mentally,
> that\'s it. He decides he\'s not riding this horse
> and that\'s that. I\'d have more respect if he just
> complained to the vet and scratched the horse or
> refused to ride. Not fair to the bettors, Mike!
> You gotta think of us once in a while, dude. You
> don\'t have a career without us!


Now, this is downright impossible.. I mean.. Mike Smith is the greatest jockey in the world.. He\'s never had a bad ride in his entire life.  

/sarcasm

Great score with the 100-1.