Breeders Cup Betting Question!!

[martoon]

Guys.. I am re-posting my Breeders Cup BETTING Question Post here below since nobody answered it in a previous thread.  Honestly I could give a crap who wins this HOY battle, I don\'t know why you all are so passionate about it on a gambling forum. Let\'s leave that to the bleeding hearts on the Bloodhorse website.  I don\'t own either horse or will get one dime from them no matter who wins HOY.  And neither Jess Jackson who somehow gives the impression that he bred and milk fed from a bottle both Curlin and Rachel instead of buying these proven superstars at the top of the market, or Jerry Moss who I\'m sure has billions in his mattress needs our sympathy either way.     Let\'s talk gambling, betting and trying to make some frickin money from this game.  I want to talk about the betting on the best gambling weekend of the year.  What worked and what didn\'t?  The main question is, if you killed them this weekend, where did you get your best info?  Because the info I bought didn\'t come through...   Would also like some post event analysis from Jerry on what did work for him, what would have worked and lessons learned from this one  

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From where I was sitting I think the only people who really could have exploited this Cup were the syndicates and whales who spread wide enough to cover everything. I bought both the TG Seminar and the Equiform seminar and combined i think their top choices hit about one out of fifty exotic bets. Amazing considering the time effort and expertise that goes into this analysis. Did anyone use any other figures or service that worked better? I played a lot of the prices all over exotic tickets and lot\'s of prices came in but not the one\'s I was on. A lot like last year. Had 5 of six finishers in the classic to just barely miss the super and super high five. Tough to see all those prices on the screen and me missing dozens of bets in a row. Will try again next year when we get back to the dirt. This is a tough game. It was a really fun two days to watch though and my wife finally has me back after going Breeders Cup AWOL for 2 straight days...

[JimP]

I, as well, would like to see the post mortem that you\'re requesting. I didn\'t kill \'em this weekend but I did come out a little ahead. I used the TG Sheets (not the Analysis and not the Seminar, because I like to make my own picks) and I used the BRIS Ultimate PPs (because there are some BRIS pace angles that I have some success with). It was usefull to toss the dirt horses and play for a front running bias on the turf. I play longshots, so I didn\'t have any of the favorites who won. I don\'t play the horses for a living. I play them for fun. But I don\'t like to lose. By my standards, I did ok this weekend. Much better this year than last. And I think I saw some horses that I want to play back if I get the opportunity. So it ain\'t over yet as far as I\'m concerned. So let\'s here from somebody who did kill \'em this wekeend.

[HP]

Hi Martoon - saw your post.  A few points.  

\"From where I was sitting I think the only people who really could have exploited this Cup were the syndicates and whales who spread wide enough to cover everything.\"

My strategy was to focus on a few races where I thought they were live longshots.  I wasn\'t going to be able to spend all day(s) watching this year, and I had to make my plays in advance.  I posted here on the six or seven races I thought had value plays.  I\'m not a whale or a syndicate.  I bet about $300 on the whole thing.  Had one big hit (and a few heart attacks).  

\"I bought both the TG Seminar and the Equiform seminar and combined i think their top choices hit about one out of fifty exotic bets. Amazing considering the time effort and expertise that goes into this analysis. Did anyone use any other figures or service that worked better?\"

I get the figures (in this case I went off the pre-entries) and I do my own thing.  I don\'t buy analysis.  I\'m interested in figuring it out for myself, and betting someone else\'s picks is not the way for me.  Maybe you should do your own thing?  

\"I played a lot of the prices all over exotic tickets and lot\'s of prices came in but not the one\'s I was on. A lot like last year. Had 5 of six finishers in the classic to just barely miss the super and super high five.\"

This could be a problem.  I start with what I see as good \"win\" bets and work my way up from there.  Multi-race bets and exotics need to be structured around keys.  I don\'t have the bankroll to spread to infinity.  I rarely play supers and have never played high five.  I don\'t expect to either.  Exactas and tris on BC day are nice enough for me.  

Hope this helps.  HP

[miff]

Martoon,

Know some Rags picks which were no better. As JB has said there will always be some who interpreted the sheets to make money.Traditional handicapping, using the data was tough imo, but I did not get hurt and had several close calls, like many players.

With fields that big, whales and syndicates have as tough a time as anyone else.The $1.8 million pick six only had one winner, the ticket purchased thru a hub in Maine. It is next to criminal that the amount of the pick 6 ticket is not made public,NOT the winners name.


Mike

[firmturf]

My betting strategy was as follows:

Bet Mandella, Sheriffs, Hoffmans and McPeek.

Throw out all dirt prepped horses.

I decided to do this after looking at last years Thrograph archive of the big days. Only McPeek got an East Coast horse to run a new top all day in 2008. This year he shipped in early, I figured he learned something. He hit the board in 4 races he entered.

I bet Sherrifs for the same reason. He got Tiago to beat ALL of the US based horses in the Classic and Zenyatta to beat them all in the Distaff last year. Think about that. Tiago beat all those horses that on numbers were faster than him.

Hoffmans got Adoration to run a new top @ 40/1 a few years back then his turf sprint last year ran a new top. No figure maker could predict those two jumping up like that in the past, why would the numbers point to it this year?

Mandella, enough said. His record in California for the BC is pretty good. Again, his numbers don\'t add up with Crown of Thorns, but did Action This Day? Or how about Johar?

Numbers cant tell you that Mandella, Hoffmans and Sherrifs are pointing for a big effort on the biggest day. But of all the trainers that ran this weekend those three have a pretty good track record of getting it done on the biggest days.

I sure didn\'t kill them this weekend....but I almost did.

[martoon]

Thanks for the comments..  I bought these seminars because it just seemed too daunting to do it myself this year.  I figured this would be the year the experts who must have put hundreds of hours into it would have it nailed with the experience of last years Cup on the same track.   I am quite sure I would have done no better myself.  This was a tough one with the favorites unbettable that came in and the longshots mostly off my radar.  The only bet I did nail was the trifecta in the filly and mare sprint with the bomb in 3rd position behind Informed Decision and Ventura.  Wish I would have it it even harder.  It got me back to even for Friday but I was gunshy by the time that race happened. That easily could have been a $20 trifecta too with a different horse in 3rd.  

My wish for these TG races of the week, which I like to play for fun, would be for them to take a stand and pick a cold exacta or trifecta once in a while instead of vague advice that forces you to spread wider than a New Orleans hooker.

[drbillym]

Ever since Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby, I have been aware that in these big races the horse with the highest Beyer in its most recent race can come in at a big price.  So why didn\'t I play Dancing in Silks or Furthest Land?