2 things I think I know about the Breeders Cup 3 weeks out

[covelj70]

First, it\'s just pure folly throwing any European horse out of the mix.  As the EP Taylor demonstrated once again this weekend, there really isn\'t any good way to gauge how much the Euros jump up first Lasix, on firmer ground which many of them prefer, and with sometimes faster paces which sets up the big turn of foot closers that we see so often in Europe.  

No one believes in the value of the figures more than me but since you can\'t analytically measure how much they jump up first time here, ruling any of them out on slow figures is not a great idea, especially at a price.  

It\'s not really a question that the Euros will dominate this breeders cup again this year but I for one won\'t be too cute about which ones to use.  If you leave any of the euros off the multi race exotic tickets, you are just asking to lose.

Second, the one race where the Euros won\'t likely have a dog in the hunt is the Sprint and is it just me or is Zensational setting up to be the next Henny Hughes or Lost in the Fog.  Even good handicappers seemed to get wrapped up in the 3 year old sprinters that look brilliant beating up on 3 year olds early and then maybe beating a field of weak older horses once before the BC like both Henny and Zensational did.  I believe that Zensational is setting up as the best bet against on the card if he\'s really going to be even money as all of the early lines suggest.  First of all, I don\'t think he\'s as fast as many of the others but I have to see the sheets to confirm that.  More importantly, the Sprint is one race where we have to acknowledge that pace has an impact if we get a few of them who normally get the lead in 22 and change but will need to go 21 flat to be ahead in this one.  Fatal Bullet is likely to give Zensational all he can handle on the front end and set up a price in this race, especially given how speed tends to play at SA.

Thoughts?

[Niall]

Briefly thought along the same lines as it relates to the EP Taylor, recalling a friend throwing Salve Germania in the mix at Saratoga given the odds. In this case the winner DID NOT get Lasix (I believe), which made me not use ... Absent that, your points are valid and will require deep tickets ... How do you protect/hedge your multi-race wagers if you cant go that deep? Win or exactas?

[covelj70]

well, no horse won any of the breeders cup races last year that prepped on dirt so one thing we could do is throw all of them out.  I don\'t think that\'s a bad strategy again this year.

as with any of the multi race bets though, at some point you have to take a stand.  Last year I got lucky and took a stand on Midnight Lute in the Sprint and was able to go very deep in the classic and hit the pick 4.  

I didn\'t think Raven\'s Pass would get the distance but even last year I thought it was foolish to leave any of the Euros off the ticket and the recent instances of Salve Germania, the EP Taylor and of course the Goodwood reminded me again that I shouldn\'t leave them off this year either.

I will be looking for the one or two races that we can take a stand in this year.  Seems like on ladies day, one could feel very comfortable with a 2 horse ticket that included Ventura and Informed Decision to get through the ladies sprint.

[basket777]

win first   then win again then win one more time.   a bird in the hand

[Uncle Buck]

One thing we know for sure - No East Coast horses ever come to Santa Antia and run big - dirt or poly. Baffert, Cerin, Mandella, Hoffmans!, Sherriffs et al rule the roost when this event is held at the great race place. Throw in select Euros and you should do well. That was my strategy in 2003 and 2008 and I had big days. Results don\'t lie. Toss Shug, toss Pletcher, toss Tricky and all the rest of the 212 trainers.

[Wrongly]

Uncle Buck

Shug didn\'t have a horse in the BC in 2003. He also has saddled 53 starters with 9 winner and 38% ITM.  I just hope he send a horse that\'s over looked, I have fond memories of Pleasant Home.

[jack72906]

Agreed. However a number of East coast ladies ran well last year. The boys did not.