Atswhatimtalknbout

[Michael D.]

this one looks like something special. I wish I had pulled the trigger at 29-1, but off just one maiden win, I thought the odds would have been a bit higher. I have to move this one right to the top of my early Derby list.

[OPM]

Michael, 29-1 is way too low for a horse who is slow and has just an ok pattern. You can probably still get this at one of the casinos in Nevada if you so please.  He probably  ran an ok # today but I don\'t see it better than a 5 since the trip was equal to During(2w 2W while he was 1w3w) This can be argued but it will take @ 0 to win this year\'s derby and this horse has only 2 more races to develop another 5pts on short rest without bouncing, highly unlikely.

[Michael D.]

OPM,

what if the horse ran a \"3\" or so, which I think is more likely? I don\'t know much about sheet patterns, but isn\'t a three race pattern of \"9\", tough trip \"6\", and \"3\" a good looking pattern for a young three year old?

[OPM]

No, if you need a 0 to win the derby, yes if you\'re looking for a solid horse in the summer/fall.  I don\'t believe it is a 3 because  During ran just as fast as he did.

[Michael D.]

During is a $350,000 yearling purchase sired by Cherokee Run trained by Baffert. Horses like this have license to run any # at any time. Older claimers in the 4th race yesterday went 15 lengths slower, horses who figured to run in the \"7\" range. I think the second race will get a very good #. I think most do agree with you however. Watchmaker still doesn\'t have the horse in his top 25. Thanks for the input matey..... any thoughts on the ROTW? I just started looking at it, not an easy one.

[OPM]

If he does run between a 1-3, then that is much worse in my opinion.  I also think that the winner of the Risen Star is history.

[Michael D.]

I guess Ats and EM have become the clear favorites, and it is tough to argue against either. Here is how I see the field at this stage.

1. Aristocat - long striding colt is bred to run for miles on the dam side. made a nice run in the TB derby, but just looks a bit too slow.
2. Ats - was very green in the SF Stakes. once Flores got the horse to change leads, he exploded. the colt will run ten furlongs and longer, and is as fast as any of them. never smart to toss a Frankel horse, but at this stage, Ats looks like a potential superstar, and is the most likely winner of this year\'s Derby.
3. Badge of Silver - fast, fast, fast.... just too many question marks though. the trainer is a former quarter horse man, and I just get the feeling that the huge #\'s came because the horse was so wound up. these performances take enormous tolls on horses, especially ones with screws in their legs. I would imagine we see another huge figure out of this one before he is finished, but I don\'t think it will be on the first Saturday in May.
4. Champali - Glitterman..... could be tough at Turfway, the derby is a huge reach though.
5. Composure - with DD and Kaf looking a bit shakey at this point, I guess the odds of this filly running in the Derby have gone up. she looks a bit slow to me, and will most likely lose Bailey if she runs, but a top five finish would not surprise me a bit.
6. Domestic Dispute - a bit of a tough trip in the SF Stakes, but the lack of a strong kick is a major concern. I would need to see a much stronger finish in the SA Derby in order to have any faith in this one.
7. Empire Maker - nothing wrong here... just a matter of odds. I like ATS better, but EM is a great colt.
8. Funny Cide - great NY bred. a brilliant ten furlongs seems unlikely however.
9. Great Notion - brilliant speed. respect if no other speed runs in the derby, which is unlikely.
10. Inamorato - no
12. Kafwain - I expect a big effort in the SA Derby, as the horse ran against a huge bias in the La Derby. I don\'t think the colt can beat Ats, however, and I would expect him to be struggling in the last 200 yards of the Derby.
11. Indy Dancer - has not run a fast race yet, which is an obvious concern. I have not given up on this colt yet though. blinkers should help, and I expect better things in the future.
13. Lion Tamer - dangerous this Saturday, but might not like ten furlongs at CD. If not for the Pletcher/JR connections, I would toss this one, but these guys have accomplished brilliant things with speed type horses.
14. Man Among Men - not sure what too think of this one. I think he is capable of winning grade 1 races, but I guess he has a better chance of doing it going long on turf. not out of the question, but needs to run much better in the SA derby.
15. Ministers Wild Cat - I have liked this colt from day one. he has incredible natural speed, and is bred on both sides to run ten furlongs. I have been a bit concerned with his late pace #\'s however, so I am not sure how he will handle the ten furlongs. still, based on potential alone, I must consider him a contender.
16. Ocean Terrace - dangerous speed. not a bad stab at 40-1.
17. Offlee Wild - excellent horse. I don\'t think his best effort will come at ten furlongs though.
18. Peace Rules - never toss a Frankel horse. I say this to myself every time I bet, but often wind up breaking the rule. he will be very dangerous at Keeneland, but a strong ten furlongs at CD is a different story. a very reluctant toss for this bettor.
19. Region of Merit - tough trip in the TB Derby, but still managed to win. a very nice horse, but still may be outclassed by the top few.
20. Senor Swinger - as good as Ten Cents A Shine.
21. Supah Blitz - nice one run middle distance horse. a nice rest and a trip back to Calder would be best for this guy.
22. Ten Cents A Shine - slow
23. Trust N Luck - I had him out of my top 15 to start, and I still do not think he has much of a chance to win the derby. needs a WE type day (speedball track and a loose lead) in order to have a chance.
24. Field - 7-2 is fair I guess. If Hold That Tiger runs he could be one of the favorites. you also get Van Nistelrooy, Buddy Gill, Brancusi, Midas Eyes, During,  and Dynever. major question marks for all of these colts obviously, but if three or four of them run, I don\'t think 7-2 is a bad price. remember, you will also get another five horses or so.

Looking at the board, I have to say Ats, at 8-1, looks like the best bet to me (yes, even after I passed up on 29-1).